New Zealand Railway Stakes betting guide, form and free tips

THE Group 1 New Zealand Railway Stakes is the feature sprint race over the holiday period at Ellerslie and it runs for a stake of $200,000.

A full field of 16 runners will race over 1200 metres on New Year’s Day at Ellerslie and the field features the Australian-performed Start Wondering and Ellerslie record holder Astara which will make for an interesting affair.

There is plenty of class in the field with 2016 Railway Stakes winner Ryan Mark and Perfect Fit which is looking to make its way back to Australia after a disappointing performance in the QTC Cup at Eagle Farm.

We have a runner-by-runner guide for the 2017 Railway Stakes NZ with form, odds and free tips.

2017 New Zealand Railway Stakes market

1. Ryan Mark – $8.60
2. Natuzzi – $7.60
3. Perfect Fit – $3.80 at Bet365.com
4. Statham – $23
5. Start Wondering – $5.20
6. Irish Moon – $15
7. Brighton – $29
8. Reilly Lincoln – $18
9. Summer’s Day – $29
10. Shezhardtocatch – $25
11. Red Striker – $12.50
12. No More Tears – $22
13. Snowdrop – $7.60
14. Astara – $30
15. Rocanto – $27
16. Volks Lightning – $27

Money has come in for Perfect Fit despite drawing wide in barrier 13. The Ken and Bev Kelso-trained mare has a great record at Ellerslie and it will be well-backed on the day.

Start Wondering has been solid in the market since it opened and Snowdrop has attracted attention after its close-up second at Ellerslie on Boxing Day.

2017 NZ Railway Stakes runner-by-runner betting guide

1. Ryan Mark – $8.60

Trainer: John Morell
Jockey: Opie Bosson
Form: 7220
Barrier: 10

The six-year-old defending champion hasn’t won since this day last year, but the son of Thorn Park has plenty of quality about it and it’s a six-time winner at this distance.

It will need to rebound after finishing last at Ellerslie on December 3, but not everything went to suit on that occasion and it’s too classy to overlook.

Jockey Opie Bosson is riding in hot form over the summer carnival and he’s a jockey punters should be following on New Year’s Day at Ellerslie.

2. Natuzzi – $7.60

Trainer: Williams/Richards
Jockey: Undisclosed
Form: 95×41
Barrier: 5

Natuzzi is a former South Island-trained gelding which now resides in Auckland. The eight-year-old comes into the Railway Stakes having won a good form race at Ellerslie in December and it should be fully respected this time around.

The 11-time race winner has won twice from five starts at Ellerslie and its best chances come when the pace is on up front. The race should be run to suit this year and despite its age, it could provide each way punters with a good sight at $7.60 and $2.60 for the place.

3. Perfect Fit – $3.80

Trainer: Ken & Bev Kelso
Jockey: Michael Coleman
Form: 110×3
Barrier: 13

The lightly-tried five-year-old is having just its 14th start, but it has been a well-managed career to date.

It won three consecutive starts earlier last year before travelling to Brisbane and disappointing in the QTC Cup behind Spill The Beans. That was forced to sit three-wide throughout that run and its only subsequent run was a third placing at Pukekohe where it was very unlucky.

The daughter of Elusive City has yet to finish out of the money in five starts at Ellerslie and it only needs some early luck from the wide draw. Expect jockey Michael Coleman to land the mare on the pace where it should kick strongly.

4. Statham – $23

Trainer: Lucock/Gillespe
Jockey: Chris Dell
Form: 33794
Barrier: 2

Statham hasn’t won since December 2015 when it defeated a good field at Ellerslie, but it has had 10 starts since and its best finish was a third placing at Ellerslie on a heavy track.

It used to have blistering speed which is required to the win Railway Stakes, but as a seven-year-old it has lost that speed and we would want a better price than $23 to risk it here.

5. Start Wondering – $5.20

Trainer: Evan & J.J. Rayner
Jockey: Johnathan Parkes
Form: 16×19
Barrier: 4

The six-year-old is a quality runner which won by six lengths at Wingatui in New Zealand before being transferred to Australia where it had great success.

The eight-time winner from Eighth Wonder won at Rosehill in its Australian debut when beating His Majesty with Hugh Bowman in the saddle. It continued its winning ways at Rosehill with an easy victory over Paceman before rising up in grade and being narrowly defeated by Great Esteem.

Its final Australian win came at Rosehill in January when beating the likes of Marenostro with ease and it ultimately returned to New Zealand where it has since won by 2.8 lengths over Ryan Mark.

It didn’t fire on the rain-affected track last start, but it looks well placed here and the $5.20 with CrownBet.com.au looks a fair price.

6. Irish Moon – $15

Trainer: Ken & Bev Kelso
Jockey: Craig Grylls
Form: 01×72
Barrier: 15

Irish Moon has placed in three of its six starts at Ellerslie and it might be the underrated type in this field.

The seven-year-old son of O’Reilly had no luck fresh up when seventh at Pukekohe, but it was only narrowly run down by Natuzzi at Ellerslie last time out.

It has defeated some nice types in the past and six of its seven career wins have come over 1200 metres. The barrier draw of 15 won’t do the front runner any help, but if it lands on the speed without having to do much work, it will be a winning threat at $15.

7. Brighton – $29

Trainer: Nigel Tiley
Jockey: Michael McNab
Form: 84941
Barrier: 9

Brighton turned around some average form with a win at Ellerslie last month and that effort should be respected.

The four-year-old is only a three-time winner from 17 starts, but it has the ability to sit off the pace and use a great turn-of-foot to finish over the top of its rivals.

We’re expecting jockey Michael McNab to settle the son of Buffalo Man near the rear of the field from barrier nine and if it’s on form, it could be the one finishing strongly down the outside.

The $29 on offer is the right price and it’s not without a chance.

8. Reilly Lincoln – $18

Trainer: Lisa Latta
Jockey: Undisclosed
Form: 31551
Barrier: 8

Trainer Lisa Latta has a good record at winning with her unfavoured runners at Ellerslie and she lines up $18 chance Reilly Lincoln in this.

The five-year-old mare is having its first start at Ellerslie following an open handicap win at Riccarton in November. That came against a quality southern field which isn’t up to this level, but it has defeated the likes of Ryan Mark in past efforts and it shouldn’t be discounted.

Its best efforts have come on dead tracks and with sunny weather expected throughout the week, it might struggle on the dry track.

9. Summer’s Day – $29

Trainer: Tony Pike
Jockey: Kelly McCulloch
Form: 14×22
Barrier: 16

Summer’s Day doesn’t deserve to be paying $29 at Sportsbet.com.au, but that shows how good the 2017 Railway Stakes field is.

The Tony Pike-trained mare has placed in both starts this campaign and it showed its class by winning three consecutive starts last campaign. Two of those wins came at Ellerslie where it’s undefeated, but they were on rain-affected tracks.

Its best form clearly comes on wet tracks, but it has form on good surfaces so we wouldn’t rule it out. The $29 is very generous from bookmakers as it will likely settle midfield off a hot tempo and finish strongly.

10. Shezhardtocatch – $25

Trainer: Wallace/Peard
Jockey: Alysha Collett
Form: 56415
Barrier: 11

The six-year-old mare has inconsistent form which can make it hard to follow, but it can sprint with the best of them on its day.

The Elusive City mare is twice a winner at Ellerslie and it defeated the likes of Snowdrop at Pukekohe two starts back. It showed some form when running a close-up sixth behind Australian winner Saracino at Te Rapa in August and it’s a runner which could sneak under the radar.

Jockey Alysha Collett won her first Group one at Ellerslie on Boxing Day so the confidence will be high.

11. Red Striker – $12.50

Trainer: Jim Collett
Jockey: Samantha Collett
Form: 22×59
Barrier: 6

Red Striker has the ability to run quick times and it’s a course specialist. The five-year-old mare has had eight starts at Ellerslie for three wins and four placings.

It hasn’t been able to win since scoring via protest in 2015, but it has been close up against some nice horses and it has been specked at each way odds in the market.

Its effort in the Concorde Handicap for ninth was disappointing at odds of $5.90, but punters get a better price now and it is good enough to turn its form around.

12. No More Tears – $22

Trainer: Stephen Marsh
Jockey: Leith Innes
Form: 20638
Barrier: 3

Twice a winner at Ellerslie from five starts, but it needs a wet track and it’s unlikely to get one.

The four-year-old has had six starts on a good track for only one placing, whereas it has won four times on a rain-affected track.

It will get all favours from an inside barrier with a light weight of 53.5kg, but it’s too much of a risk at those odds.

13. Snowdrop – $7.60

Trainer: Tony Pike
Jockey: Danielle Johnson
Form: 11×22
Barrier: 1

Snowdrop was well-backed into $3 at Ellerslie on Boxing Day and although it was beaten, it didn’t lose any admirers.

The Tony Pike-trained mare looked the winner nearing the line before Speech Craft dived late to beat the favourite in the shadows of the post. It would have taken great benefit from that outing and it looks a great chance on the quick back up.

It has won six of its 13 starts with five additional placings and it will be able to settle just off the speed from the inside draw. It might require some luck to get off the rail in the home straight, but it looks a good bet at $7.60 at WilliamHill.com.au with only 53kg on its back.

14. Astara – $30

Trainer: Logan/Gibbs
Jockey: Mark Du Plessis
Form: 7415
Barrier: 14

Astara is a speedy three-year-old which currently holds a class record at Ellerslie. The filly by Dalghar is unbeaten in all three starts at Ellerslie and it has beaten some quality types along the way.

It put 1.8 lengths on Eleonora which has subsequently performed well in Australia and it defeated a nice field of progressive types on this track in October.

It carried 56.5kg in the 2000 Guineas behind La Diosa where it finished fifth and although open class is much harder, it drops to 51kg for this which makes it a winning hope.

The $30 at CrownBet is a great price and it’s one we recommend taking for some interest.

15. Rocanto – $27

Trainer: Stephen Marsh
Jockey: Undisclosed
Form: 1256
Barrier: 12

The five-win son of Per Incanto has had an interesting campaign which kicked off with a win at Tauranga over 1200m.

The four-year-old then ran second at Ellerslie before finishing fifth as the $2.80 favourite at Te Rapa two starts back. The support continued on Boxing Day where it was swamped late in finishing sixth and it may have lost some of that quality it showed early on.

It won’t have it easy from barrier 12 so we wouldn’t include it in our selections.

16. Volks Lightning – $27

Trainer: G & D Rogerson
Jockey: Undisclosed
Form: 8617
Barrier: 7

This four-year-old mare can run well on its day as it showed two starts back when winning at Ellerslie and it was flashing home last start.

It produced a big finish to run seventh at Ellerslie behind Speech Craft on Boxing Day and it will enjoy carrying the light weight.

Unsure if it will get a run in the race, but it’s not the worst chance.

2017 NZ Railway Stakes betting tips

1st – Snowdrop
2nd – Perfect Fit
3rd – Astara ($7.40 to place at Bet365.com)
4th – Start Wondering

Snowdrop goes on top for us after its game effort for second on Boxing Day. Trainer Tony Pike is in form with his youngsters and punters will get a good sight and a great price.

Perfect Fit and Start Wondering both have plenty of class and will be well-backed in the market.

Astara is our best each way chance as it tries to remain unbeaten from four starts at Ellerslie.

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