2017 Caulfield Cup runner guide with top race tips, form and odds
THE Caulfield Cup is the first major race of the Melbourne Cup carnival and we have a runner-by-runner betting guide for the feature.
A quality field of 17 has accepted for the $3 million prize at Caulfield this Saturday and Cup fields can be tough to sort through, so we’ve provided betting information for every runner this week.
Most of the early money has come for international runner Johannes Vermeer, but New Zealand hopes Jon Snow and Bonneval have attracted plenty of attention from punters.
It’s going to be a great race and punters can bet on the 2017 Caulfield Cup market with Sportsbet.com.au right now.
2017 Caulfield Cup market
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2017 Caulfield Cup betting guide
1. Humidor ($6)
Humidor has excelled since arriving in Australia from New Zealand and Darren Weir has it in prime order for the Caulfield Cup.
The five-year-old gelding won the Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes over the likes of Hartnell and Black Heart Bart in fine style before running third behind Winx in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes.
Punters should overlook that result as it wasn’t suited by the running and this Saturday’s run is going to suit perfectly.
It has been well-respected in the market and it’s a top winning chance.
2. Marmelo ($21)
British trainer Hughie Morrison lines up Marmelo which has had a great season in France leading up to this.
The five-year-old by Duke Of Marmalade has had only four runs this year, but that has consisted of two wins and a placing. Its first win came at Chantilly in the Prix de Barbevi at group three level.
It won by 2.5 lengths over 3000m which shows that it might want more distance than the 2400m, but the international form is much better than local form and its last start win carrying 60kg was pure class.
It’s paying $21 because Australian punters haven’t had a look at it yet, but it shouldn’t be overlooked.
3. Johannes Vermeer ($4.60)
The money has come firmly for Johannes Vermeer, which is looking to give Aidan O’Brien a rare win in Australia.
The champion Irish trainer is desperate for some success down under and Johannes Vermeer looks like his best shot for some time. It ran very well behind Gailo Chop in the Caulfield Stakes last Saturday and backing up a week later should help its fitness.
Its form in Europe was only fair at the highest level, but that’s good form for the Caulfield Cup and having had experience around this track is key.
The $4.60 is far too short for our liking and you’ll likely get a better price on the day, but it should get every chance from an inside barrier.
It has attracted some early bets at Neds.com.au.
4. Jon Snow ($11)
Jon Snow is a tough as nails Kiwi runner which was brave when running third in the Caulfield Stakes last Saturday.
The Baker/Forsman-trained four-year-old won the ATC Derby in the autumn and it has since won the JRA Cup at Moonee Valley in preparation for the Caulfield Cup.
New Zealand runners are better suited to age-group racing in Australia, but Jon Snow will continue to fight and it should be in the thick of the finish with only 54.5kg on its back.
5. He’s Our Rokki ($151)
The former Kiwi has really gone off the boil this campaign, after winning multiple group ones last season.
The Lindsay Park-trained gelding has finished well down the track all year and its best finish was a fourth in the P.B. Lawrence Stakes behind Hartnell in August, but it hasn’t followed that up with much.
It finished eighth behind Classic Uniform in the Craven Plate on Saturday which isn’t a good form guide for the Caulfield Cup and its odds of $151 are spot on.
6. Sir Isaac Newton ($67)
Imported runner for Macedon Lodge which has yet to excite in Australia.
The son of Galileo finished seventh in the 2016 Caulfield Cup behind Jameka in what was a satisfactory result, but there has been little to get excited about since.
It has finished second-to-last in two of its last four starts and it ran 11.25 lengths behind Winx in the Turnbull Stakes last start. It should get better over this distance, but its lack of acceleration is a real concern.
7. Ventura Storm ($11)
Ventura Storm has attracted interest at each way odds. The Lindsay Park-trained import has been backed into $11 with Neds.com.au after opening at $15.
It had its first start in Australia in May before running seventh in the Heatherlie Handicap in September and its form has improved since.
The son Zoffany ran on well for sixth in the Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes and it battled on well for second in the Turnbull Stakes behind Winx, albeit some 6.5 lengths behind the champion mare.
Before coming to Australia it was a winner over 2400m in the Premio Stakes and it looks set for a big race this Saturday.
8. Wicklow Brave ($41)
Willie Mullins is back with Wicklow Brave which finished 22nd in the 2016 Melbourne Cup.
The oldest horse in the field, Wicklow Brave has plenty of miles under its legs, but there is little to be inspired about this season.
It finished over 14 lengths behind Order of St George last start in the Irish St Leger and dropping in distance isn’t going to help its chances.
The $41 is a touch short and it doesn’t realistically have a winning chance.
9. Inference ($15)
Inference is the first Australian horse in the field and it will no doubt attract punters.
The four-year-old is hoping to follow in the footsteps of Jameka last year, but it doesn’t have the same credentials having not gone close to winning this preparation.
Its run for fifth in the Caulfield Stakes last week was a better sign of things to come, but it didn’t get close to Jon Snow in the ATC Derby over this distance in the autumn and it’s hard to see that form getting reversed.
10. Single Gaze ($41)
There is some support in the market for Single Gaze following its fourth in the Caulfield Stakes.
The Nick Olive-trained runner produced a better-than-expected run last Saturday in the feature and it has the turn-of-foot to give some of these a real test.
This is a level of racing it hasn’t faced before and that’s the main concern, but we wouldn’t be ruling out its chances if everything goes its way in the run.
11. Bonneval ($7.50)
The Kiwi mare has drifted with Sportsbet at $7.50 despite attracting early attention from punters at Neds.
The quality multiple Oaks winner didn’t show its best last time out, but the race wasn’t run to suit and it clearly favoured those on the pace at Caulfield.
Whether or not the track bias will be any different this week is the big question, but expect in-form jockey Kerrin McEvoy to settle Bonneval much closer to the speed where it will be tough to beat.
The winning streak may have ended, but Bonneval is the real deal and punters are getting great odds.
12. Hardham ($41)
It’s hard to believe Hardham is lining up this year, given the comments from David Brideoake following its second place finish in the Inglis Cup.
The four-year-old was the $1.55 to win, but was easily handled by Wheal Leisure and we’re not sure that form is going to stack up at this level.
Good on them for taking a shot, but we’re not sure why it’s being supported in from $51 to $41.
13. Boom Time ($51)
Battling effort for fourth in the Herbert Power behind Lord Fandango, but it has previous winning experience at this distance and that’s a big positive.
Lindsay Park line up the six-time winner from 31 starts which has yet to win at this level, but it could give punters a good sight at the top of the straight.
It’s the final 200m which is the concern and we’re prepared to risk it.
14. Abbey Marie ($26)
Abbey Marie looks unders here at $26. The Michael Kent-trained five-year-old ran eighth in the Caulfield Stakes last start which doesn’t instil confidence.
It looked better when running second behind Bonneval in the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes at Moonee Valley, but its lack of form at Caulfield is a concern and we’d be surprised to see it contest the placings.
15. Harlem ($10)
There are a lot of punters getting excited about Harlem ($11 into $10), but we would treat it with caution.
The imported son of Champs Elysees has yet to show it can run with the best stayers in Australia and its win at Caulfield last month came over horses that wouldn’t get within 10 lengths of a Caulfield Cup winner.
It was only moderate when running fifth in The Bart Cummings last start and we would want $20 to take the risk here.
16. Amelie’s Star ($8)
It opened at $6.50 and has steadily drifted out to $8.
The Darren Weir-trained mare won The Bart Cummings last start in impressive fashion and it gets in with another light weight of only 51kg with Craig Williams in the saddle.
That’s its best attribute this Saturday and carrying such a light weight has more impact over the longer distances.
It doesn’t have the best record against the top-line thoroughbreds, but consider its chances.
17. Lord Fandango ($26)
Must commend its form this campaign which has included consecutive wins.
The Archie Alexander-trained five-year-old won the Herbert Power last start which is a good form indication for this, but repeating that effort only a week later will be tough.
$26 is worth the risk and it warrants attention at those odds.
2017 Caulfield Cup tips
Bonneval has been set for the Caulfield Cup since the start of its Australian preparation and we’re not worried about its last start sixth.
The multiple Oaks winner is a value runner at $7.50 with Kerrin McEvoy in the saddle at the light weight of 52.5kg. That makes it extremely hard to beat and the $7.50 at Sportsbet.com.au is a great price on offer from the bookmaker.
It could well be a Baker/Forsman quinella as we’re expecting a big run from Jon Snow. The tough four-year-old is an on-speed type which helps around Caulfield and it’s our next best tip.
Jon Snow is currently paying $11 to win and $3.50 to place at CrownBet.com.au which is where the value resides.
Our upset pick is Ventura Storm at $12. It has prepared beautifully for the Caulfield Cup and it represents value at $12.