VRC Oaks Day at Flemington with free tips, form and market movers

Oaks Day tips

THE Melbourne spring carnival continues this Thurday when Australia’s best staying fillies line up in the Group 1 $1 million VRC Oaks.

Some of Australia’s best fillies have taken out the Oaks with the likes of Samantha Miss, Miss Finland and Set Square.

Yankee Rose is the filly they all have to beat this year, but there are 14 other runners looking to cause an Oaks upset at Flemington and the bookmakers are offering some great prices.

We have free tips for every race at Flemington on Thursday and if you sign up with William Hill and your horse finishes second or third on races 1-4, it will give you up to $50 in bonus bets.


Race 1 – Red Rock Deli R70 (1700m)

Mount Omei is a four-year-old mare which was considered good enough to run in the Queensland Oaks. It finished 12th on that occasion which was a disappointment, but it ran on well last start at Warwick Farm and it should be considered in win bets here. It has stayed steady in the betting at $5.

Hell Or Highwater has drifted out slightly to $4.60 after dropping to $4.40 earlier in the week. The Hayes/Dabernig-trained mare comes into this having won its last two starts and it gets another chance in the same grade. It does rise in weight to 60.5kg, but Damien Oliver sticks with it and it should be tough to beat again.

Sea The Sparkle has been the best-backed runner in the field. The Darren Weir-trained mare opened at $14 and is currently at $8 after winning its first two career starts in the lower grades. It won by 1.25 lengths as the $1.75 favourite at Stawell and it should be considered here as it’s bred to see out this distance.

Race 1 tip: Sea The Sparkle to place ($2.80) at Sportsbet.com.au

Race 2 – Twitter Trophy (1800m)

Pilote D’essai has been expensive for punters this campaign, but bookmakers are offering better odds now. The Hayes/Dabernig-trained gelding has run at odds of $4.20, $1.90, $2.60 and $3.10 this preparation without scoring a win and punters are getting frustrated. It’s paying $6.50 to win this which is a good price and it looks likely to make the rise in distance. We’re giving it one more chance.

Data Point is only a one-win horse, but it has plenty of talent and it’s knocking on the door of its second win. The Michael Kent-trained four-year-old has finished second in three consecutive starts and it has been producing strong finishes. Drops back in grade here which isn’t ideal, but it drops to a dangerous weight. $4 available with bookmakers.

The Chairman won well in rating 70 grade last start and its form this campaign has been strong. Mick Price trains the five-year-old which finished fourth behind Inference at Pakenham and it hasn’t done much wrong since. The inside draw is ideal and the $9 is a reasonable price.

Race 2 tip: Pilote D’essai to win ($6.50) at WilliamHill.com.au

Race 3 – Off The Track Sunzero R90 (1400m)

Pepperano is an interesting runner for Liam Birchley. The four-year-old placed in the Magic Millions as a two-year-old, but then went on a dry spell. It was forced to drop down the class 3 grade two back where it won by 3.3 lengths and it backed that up with another win last start. It hasn’t done enough to suggest it can win at this level and the $4 is a few dollars too short for our liking.

Rock Forthe Ladies is a quality gelding which won the Filante Stakes at Randwick last start. That came against a quality field which included Religify and despite rising in weight for this, it is the class runner of the field. Bjorn Baker has a big opinion of it and Blake Shinn takes the ride. Consider here despite the drift to $4.60 in the betting.

Murt The Flirt has dropped from $5 to $4.20 and with good reason. The Brendan McCarthy-trained gelding defeated a nice field at Caulfield last start and it looks set to make it back-to-back victories in this. The four-time winner has always had plenty of ability and punters are expecting a big effort from the five-year-old. Good chance again here.

Race 3 tip: Murt The Flirt to win ($4.20) at CrownBet.com.au

Race 4 – 3AW Talking Melbourne Mile (1600m)

Grande Rosso was a big winner at Bendigo last start in rating 90 grade and there’s no reason why it can’t win again. The in-form son of Written Tycoon is a two-time winner at the mile and it stays at the luxury weight of 54kg. Nice chance here at $4.80.

Pay Up Bro looked the winner last start at Geelong, but it was narrowly beaten on the line and punters shouldn’t drop it yet. The John Moloney-trained gelding won back-to-back races earlier this campaign before running sixth in the Inglis Cup behind Portion Control. It must rise in grade for this, but the distance is ideal and the $4.40 is a fair price.

Marwood would love some rain to come, but the six-year-old has ability and it could run in the placings here. It has finished third at its last two starts at Moonee Valley and it continues to drop in weight to 54kg. Its last win came when it carried 59kg so that bodes well for this. Drifting out in the market at $6.50.

Race 4 tip: Grande Rosso to win ($4.80 at CrownBet.com.au

Race 5 – TCL QUHD TV Stakes (1800m)

Nemrud is a quality maiden runner which should have won a race by now, but punters will be reeling after a poor showing last start. The John O’Shea-trained colt entered its last effort having finished an unlucky second in the Dulcify Stakes at Randwick, but it fell flat at Geelong when running ninth behind Captain Duffy. It might have needed the right left handed so don’t discount at $7.

Exocet deserves to be the $2.40 favourite as it has had a top campaign. The Lee and Anthony Freedman-trained filly won its maiden before winning again at Caulfield against a good field. Its eighth in the Edward Manifold was very unlucky and it battled on well at Moonee Valley in the Moonee Valley Classic when it was placed in the worst part of the track. Looks likely here and multi-bet punters will include it in their bets.

Anaheim was a strong winner at Ballarat last start and it was nominated for the Derby last Saturday. This is easier than that and despite drifting in the market from $9 to $10, it has plenty of staying ability and it shouldn’t be discounted.

Race 5 tip: Exocet to win ($2.40) at Bet365.com

Race 6 – L’Oreal Paris Stakes (1400m)

Rageese is only a three-time winner from 16 starts, but it has always promised plenty and it was unlucky not to win at Moonee Valley last start. That followed a fourth in the Weekend Hussler Stakes behind Chetwood and that form should stack up nicely. First start at Flemington is a concern, but it has been very well backed at $4.40.

Takedown is the class runner of the field, but it will have to carry 59.5kg. The Gary Moore-trained gelding won The Shorts at Randwick before taking out the Premiere Stakes which has been a great form guide for the Melbourne spring carnival. Its second placing in the Moonga Stakes was full of merit and with a better ride, it should feature here. Great price of $6.50 available.

Greg Bennett lines up Clearly Innocent which has looked good in two runs back from a spell. The Country Championship winner has gone to another level and it has the weight advantage of many of these runners. It has drawn wide in barrier 13 which will make it tough early.

Race 6 tip: Takedown to place ($2.25) at Sportsbet.com.au

Race 7 – Mumm Stakes (1000m)

10-time winner Terravista is back after sitting on the sidelines since April. The injury-plagued gelding has a lethal fresh up record of five wins and two placings from seven starts and its best form would have it winning this, but it’s not bomb proof and it is now a seven-year-old sprinter. Too many concerns for us to suggest backing at $3.

Hellbent is a horse on the rise, but it did have to miss a run due to being scratched at the barriers. The Darren Weir-trained horse has won three of its last four starts, which included wins over subsequent Flemington winners Demonstrate and Sheidel. Those wins came easily and it looks tough to beat at $2.10. The Flemington straight can throw in a surprise result, but Hellbent has won here before.

Redzel is a capable gelding for Peter and Paul Snowden which didn’t fire in the Group 1 Moir Stakes, but this is easier. The four-year-old had won its last three from four prior to that which included wins in the July Sprint and The Heath. It has plenty of talent and it might enjoy running at Flemington for the first time. Each way odds of $9 available.

Race 7 tip: Hellbent to win ($2.10) at WilliamHill.com.au

Race 8 – Group 1 Crown Oaks (2500m)

Yankee Rose is the standout chance in the Oaks after its top quality campaign. It won the Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes before running third in the Group 1 Cox Plate at weight-for-age. That was a great effort to run behind Winx and Hartnell, so punters will have no problems taking the $1.65 on offer. With its ability to stay these distances and its great turn-of-foot, an upset looks unlikely.

Eleonora was a stylish winner of the Ethereal Stakes at Caulfield and it defeated subsequent winner Tiamo Grace. The New Zealand-trained filly is bred to see out this distance and despite Kiwi runners not having a good record in the Oaks, this filly looks to have a big future. Chance at $9 and $2.20 for the place.

Harlow Gold didn’t have a great time of it at Moonee Valley, but the wide open track at Flemington is ideal. It’s a filly which needs time to warm up and with its big stride, the long straight will allow it to stretch out nicely. Doesn’t have the turn-of-foot to launch over them late, but it will grind away and battle on well.

Race 8 tip: Yankee Rose to win ($1.65) at CrownBet.com.au

Race 9 – Crown Resorts Plate (1100m)

Hear The Chant produced a big finish to win the Thoroughbred Club Stakes at Caulfield last start and there’s no reason it can’t repeat that effort. The Hayes/Dabernig-trained filly has won two of its three career starts and it has drawn well with Dwayne Dunn in the saddle. $15 is way over the odds and it could give each way punters a good sight.

Spright has turned the corner in its last two starts. The Garry Frazer-trained filly broke maiden grades two starts back and it followed that up with a win in the Brian Crowley Stakes at Randwick when beating Star Of Monsoon by almost three lengths. It usually likes to use the turn to gather momentum so the Flemington straight might not suit, but it has been well backed at $3.80.

Kentucky Miss comes into this having won two consecutive races and it’s now living up to its potential. The daughter of Foxwedge finished third in the San Domenico Stakes at Rosehill when it was only 2.1 lengths behind Star Turn and that form should stack up. It has been impressive since and the wide draw is ideal. $6 on offer.

Race 9 tip: Kentucky Miss to win ($6) at Sportsbet.com.au

Related Posts

Notify of
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments