Victoria Oaks day free racing tips and form, Thursday November 9
OAKS day is where the fillies shine at Flemington and we have free racing tips, form and updated odds for the $1 million Victoria Oaks.
Most of the attention has been with Aloisia in the betting, but there are 11 other talented three-year-olds ready to add their name to the likes of Jameka, Samantha Miss and Miss Finland.
The third day of the Melbourne Cup carnival features nine great betting races which starts at 12:15 with the Drinkwise Plate where punters see the biggest field of the day.
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Race 1 – Drinkwise Plate (1700m)
Linguist was scratched from Melbourne Cup day and it looks a nice chance here. The four-year-old is coming off a four-length win at Ballarat and it looks to have the potential to rise through the grades. She will appreciate rising up in distance and it only needs luck from a tricky draw.
On the same line as Linguist is Sworn Evidence. The Darren Weir-trained filly has some great form lines this season which includes a 1.25-length win over Oaks runner Pinot and also a close-up finish behind Our Crown Mistress last start. She’s only a three-year-old against some older horses here, but she looks a good chance.
Race 1 tip: Sworn Evidence to place ($2.10) at CrownBet.com.au
Race 2 – Twitter Trophy (1800m)
Ebediyin chased well at Moonee Valley last start, but it was looking for longer than the mile. The imported five-year-old hasn’t quite hit expectations, but this isn’t a hard assignment and it drops right down in weight. Nice chance at $6.
Von Tunzelman is a Kiwi runner for Roger James which scored a half-length win at Te Rapa last start. The well-bred son of Zabeel has winning form over Fanatic at stakes level and a close up finish behind Lizzie L’amour. That form might be good enough for this level.
Race 2 tip: Ebediyin to win ($6) at Neds.com.au
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Race 3 – Subzero Handicap (1400m)
Urban Ruler is a winner of six from 14 starts and it’s coming off a gutsy win at Geelong. The Greg Eurell-trained four-year-old has won and placed from five starts at Flemington and it’s yet to run a bad race this season. Strike while the iron is hot.
Silvera is a two-time winner at this distance and it ran third behind Odeon last start. That form reads well for this level and its form prior including back-to-back victories against some nice fields. Drawing barrier six should see it find a nice position so consider for win bets.
Race 3 tip: Urban Ruler to win ($4) at CrownBet.com.au
Race 4 – Melbourne Cup Country Country Final (1600m)
Former New Zealand runner Night’s Watch showed why it’s highly regarded when winning at Bendigo last start. The Weir-trained four-year-old has now won four of its nine starts and the well-bred type hit the line with purpose last start. Drawing barrier 16 isn’t ideal, but it will likely get back and run on.
Mandalay Bay has been well-supported at $5.50 after scoring a narrow win at Ballarat last start. The Matt Laurie-trained placed at Flemington two starts back behind Spanner Head and although this is a rise in grade, punters should respect the money coming for it.
Race 4 tip: Night’s Watch to win ($3.90) at Sportsbet.com.au
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Race 5 – TCL TV Stakes (1400m)
Hellova Street looked the winner at Moonee Valley last start, but it was only narrowly run down near the line. The Tasmanian representative is a professional 13-time winner from 31 starts which loves this distance and has had success at Flemington. It makes its own luck in front and the $4.60 is a respectable price.
William Haggas lines up Fastnet Tempest which looked good when running second in the Sale Cup. The son of Fastnet Rock was good enough to run in the Royal Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot in June and although the 1400m is on the short side of ideal, punters must respect international form at this level.
Race 5 tip: Fastnet Tempest to win ($5) at Neds.com.au
Race 6 – Absolut Stakes (1000m)
Ball of Muscle is the first short-price favourite of the day at $2.20. The Joe Pride-trained seven-year-old hasn’t won in what feels like forever, but his run for third in the Sydney Stakes (Everest consolation) was extremely impressive. That run indicated a return to form and there’s no In Her Time in this field.
Badajoz is the only other runner at single figure odds at $6.50. The James Cummings-trained five-year-old looked good winning consecutive races at Rosehill and Caulfield this season before running third at The Valley last start. He typically runs well on this track and he could push the favourite.
Race 6 tip: Ball of Muscle to win ($2.20) at CrownBet.com.au
Race 7 – Seppelt Wines Stakes (1800m)
Sambro has good form lines coming into this which includes a narrow placing behind Levendi last Saturday. The Chris Waller-trained three-year-old has won only one race, but it has form behind some nice types and many punters think it’s time the colt won another race. $3.80 with bookmakers.
Irish Vega is another runner coming out of the Carbine Club Stakes behind Levendi and that looks the best form guide for this. The Anthony Freedman-trained gelding ran on stoutly to finish third and the rise in distance clearly helped. It goes up to the 1800m here which looks ideal.
Race 7 tip: Irish Vega to place ($2) at Topbetta.com.au
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Race 8 – Kennedy (Victoria) Oaks (2500m)
The Waterhouse/Bott team lines up Pinot which has won its last two starts. The filly by Pierro won by over three lengths at Flemington two back before repeating the dose in the Ethereal Stakes last start. That form holds strong for this there’s little doubting the three-year-old’s ability to see out the distance. It opened at $5 and has drifted to $6 with the majority of money coming for Aloisia.
Aloisia is the most talented runner in this field, but punters need to take short odds. The Aaron Purcell-trained runner defeated subsequent Derby day winner Shoals at Caulfield before destroying a quality field on Cox Plate day. There’s no doubting its form leading into the Oaks, but the rise to 2500m can often negate brilliance. Will she have that turn-of-foot after 2500m? That’s the question and the $1.55 is too short to find out.
Race 8 tip: Pinot to place ($1.70) at CrownBet.com.au
Race 9 – Kennedy Plate (1100m)
Demerara tarnished its unbeaten record at Moonee Valley last start, but punters shouldn’t drop it just yet. The three-year-old filly looked good winning its first three starts in Sydney and although it had its chances at Moonee Valley, running down the straight at Flemington looks ideal.
Blondie was the winner of that race at The Valley and it’s paying $15 to win again. The three-year-old filly may have benefited from a leaders’ bias on that occasion, but she finished second behind Shoals in the Atlantic Jewel Stakes and that form should take her close.
Race 9 tip: Demerara to win ($4.20) at Neds.com.au
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