Victoria Derby 2020 runner-by-runner betting guide
Prizemoney$2,000,000
| What | Victoria Derby |
| Where | Flemington Racecourse – 448 Epsom Rd, Flemington VIC 3031 |
| When | Saturday, October 31, 2020 | 3:45pm AEDT | Race 7 |
| Distance | 2500m |
| Status | Group 1 |
| Race Conditions | 3YO at set weights |
| 2019 Winner | Warning – 55.5kg (10) | Jockey: Damian Oliver | Trainer: Anthony Freedman |
| Recommended Betting | |
2020 Victoria Derby betting preview
It’s the greatest day of the racing year on Saturday, with four Group 1 races and the final ticket on offer for Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup. The feature race of the day is the $2 million Victoria Derby. The 3YO Classic over 2500m has produced some champion stayers, including Elvstroem, Efficient, Rebel Raider and Preferment.
Young Werther and Cherry Tortoni are vying for outright favouritism in the 2020 Victoria Derby betting, ahead of Hit The Shot and Albarado. The speed looks to come from Let’s Karaka Deel, Tour Of Duty and Cetshwayo. Young Werther will be in behind the speed, while Cherry Tortoni is likely to be near the tail from the wide alley.
1 – Cherry Tortoni (14)
Comes off a tough win in the Moonee Valley Vase over 2040m just seven days ago. He has been at the top of the market for this race for months now and is expected to run very well. Barrier 14 makes it a touch tricky, as he will likely be out the back, but he does look to have the class. A leading chance.
2 – Albarado (8)
Another last-start winner is Albarado, who comes through the Caulfield Classic two weeks ago. By Savabeel out of an O’Reilly mare suggests this horse is an out-and-out stayer, and he looks perfectly placed in this race. Barrier eight will allow Mark Zahra to get the colt in a midfield position and charge home late.
3 – Johnny Get Angry (5)
Lachie King has his first ride in a Derby with $34 chance Johnny Get Angry. This horse has been crying out for 2500m in all six of his career runs and finally gets his chance here. Despite being one of four maidens in the field of 14, he has been right thereabouts and should appreciate getting back to Flemington. His third in the Vase last weekend was great, hitting the line very well after blowing the start. Each-way all day.
4 – Let’s Karaka Deel (3)
Let’s Karaka Deel comes off a tough second to Albarado last time out at Caulfield when he got into a bumping duel in the final furlong which may have cost him the race in the end. From barrier three, we expect to see him right there on the speed, and without a great deal of other speed on paper, he may get a soft time of it. He is bred to stay and will be in this for a long way.
5 – Young Werther (4)
Danny O’Brien and Damien Oliver combine with the current favourite at what will be just the gelding’s third career start. It’ll be quite the training performance if he can win this after missing his final lead-up when scratched last weekend. The start prior he was luckless when second to Khoekhoe, which in hindsight probably wasn’t the ideal last run into a Derby. He’ll need to be a serious stayer to win this, but we aren’t ruling him out.
6 – Hit The Shot (9)
Hit The Shot found the line really well in the Caulfield Classic two weeks ago and looks primed up to 2500m. By Dundeel and residing in the Cumani yard, we know he will stay. Barrier nine will see Fred Kersley take him back, and we will no doubt see him hitting the line well.
7 – Cetshwayo (10)
Cetshwayo won the Derby trial over 1800m at this track five weeks ago and was only fair in the Caulfield Classic last time out. He is bred to stay and gets the red-hot Jamie Kah on board, but he looks a touch outclassed here.
8 – Redwood Shadow (12)
Redwood Shadow loomed as the winner in the Caulfield Classic but was just overpowered late by Albarado et al and finished fourth. He is another one who has been crying out for a trip, which he finally gets here, and he should be suited to Flemington. From barrier 12, we imagine he’ll be in the first half-a-dozen and will make a winning bid at some point.
9 – Wertheimer (6)
Albarado’s stablemate looked a rough hope when they sent him to Sydney for the Spring Champion Stakes, but he failed and was beaten 15L. Cherry Tortoni came out of that race and won last start, but it would take a Hugh Bowman special to get this Tavistock gelding home here. He’ll get a long way back and appreciate the 2500m but looks a grade or two out of his depth at this stage.
10 – Tour Of Duty (13)
James McDonald hops on Mike Moroney’s colt, who looks a live each-way chance. Tour Of Duty is a maiden still, but two runner-up performances from five career starts suggest there is hope. He hit the line really well last start behind Albarado and should be suited at 2500m as well. He’ll get back from the gate but will be very strong late.
11 – Token Spirit (11)
Token Spirit was a winner at 2000m back in September and ran well in the Geelong Classic last time out, running fourth after becoming a bit tight for room along the fence. His maiden win came six weeks after his debut start at 1200m, so he looks to be an out-and-out stayer and should relish the conditions. His form doesn’t look good enough, however.
12 – Born To Succeed (7)
Ironically, Born To Succeed had only beaten 10 of his 52 opponents home in his first five runs, finishing last on two of those occasions, before breaking his maiden over 2050m at Wodonga last start. He finished 7.5L off Young Werther two starts back and looks right out of his depth in this.
13 – Wisaka (2)
Ben Melham sits on this gelding for the first time and will be looking to break the son of Tavistock’s maiden. He just missed at Cranbourne two back on a Heavy 8 before working home well in the Geelong Classic. He looks outclassed here too.
14 – Kenzan (1)
Danny O’Brien’s lesser chance in the race is this four-start maiden. He was no match at Geelong last time out, just whacking away in the last few stages. He’ll be boxed in on the fence from barrier one under Daniel Moor and have an economical run throughout, but we can’t see him figuring in the finish.
2020 Victoria Derby betting predictions
In a wide-open affair, there looks to be plenty of value around for punters who are smart enough to find it. Young Werther looks vulnerable at start number three and up to 2500m, so we are happy to bet around him. Johnny Get Angry will be ready to go over 2500m and is bred perfectly to win a Derby. At $34, he is the one we want to be on. We’ll be saving on Albarado, as the majority of the form for this ties in around his win at Caulfield, and he should be the one out of that field to hold them at bay again.
| $100 Betting Strategy | |
|---|---|
| $30 each way: | Johnny Get Angry |
| $20 each way: | Albarado |
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