TJ Smith Stakes runner-by-runner betting tips | Randwick | 10/04
| What | 2021 TJ Smith Stakes |
| Where | Royal Randwick Racecourse – Alison Rd, Randwick NSW 2031 |
| When | Saturday, April 10, 2021 | 3:35pm AEST | Race 8 |
| Prizemoney | $2,500,000 |
| Distance | 1200m |
| Status | Group 1 |
| Race Conditions | Standard weight for age |
| 2020 Winner | #1 Nature Strip – 58.5kg (1) | Jockey: James McDonald | Trainer: Chris Waller |
| Watch Live | |
One of Australia’s premier sprint races will be run on Saturday at Royal Randwick as 11 dashers assemble for the 2021 TJ Smith Stakes. Nature Strip is the defending champion and holds $3.50 favouritism ahead of Bivouac, Eduardo and Haut Brion Her. We can expect to see Eduardo and Nature Strip pair off in front like they did in the Challenge Stakes on March 6. HorseBetting.com.au takes you through every runner in Saturday’s feature sprint.
TJ Smith Stakes form guide
1 – Bivouac (2)
Trainer: James Cummings | Jockey: Hugh Bowman (58.5kg)
Bivouac hasn’t been his true self in both runs this campaign, finishing fifth in the Lightning Stakes and fourth in the Canterbury Stakes on March 6. The son of Exceed And Excel was brilliant last campaign, finishing second in The Everest before bolting home in the VRC Sprint Classic – both at 1200m. He gets back to his favoured trip on Saturday and is drawn to be in the box seat, while a bit of the cut out of the ground will suit.
2 – Nature Strip (4)
Trainer: Chris Waller | Jockey: James McDonald (58.5kg)
Nature Strip shook off the first-up doubters when he donkey licked his rivals in the Group 1 Lightning Stakes in February and then followed that up with a very narrow loss to Eduardo in the Challenge Stakes in track record time. James McDonald will take him forward from barrier five, and he should be able to find the fence with Eduardo drawn out wider. He won a trial on March 29 to tune him up for this and should be hard to beat.
3 – Eduardo (8)
Trainer: Joseph Pride | Jockey: Brenton Avdulla (58.5kg)
Eduardo has set the clock alight in his two runs this campaign, breaking the track record in the Challenge Stakes fresh over 1000m and then rating through the roof when winning The Galaxy over 1100m on March 27 at Rosehill. He will go forward from barrier eight under Brenton Avdulla and will be in it for a long way. He just needs to see out the 1200m.
4 – Zoutori (10)
Trainer: Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra | Jockey: Luke Currie (58.5kg)
Zoutori got his maiden Group 1 in the Newmarket Handicap down the straight six at Flemington on March 6, beating a sub-par field. Luke Currie has stuck with the son of Zoustar and will ride him quietly out the back from gate 10. He did finish fourth in the VRC Sprint Classic in the spring, running four lengths off Bivouac with only half a length separating himself, Nature Strip and Libertini, so there is merit in that performance.
5 – Masked Crusader (7)
Trainer: Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes | Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy (58.5kg)
Hype horse Masked Crusader comes into this fresh off a blitzing display in the Group 1 William Reid Stakes around The Valley on March 19. The son of Toronado has always promised plenty and looks to be showing that now. He did get all the favours on an inside bias last start, but he is four from four at 1200m and has never missed the places at Randwick.
6 – Dirty Work (9)
Trainer: Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes | Jockey: Damian Lane (58.5kg)
Another of the Hawkes-trained runners is four-year-old entire Dirty Work. He arguably should have won the Oakleigh Plate when fresh back in February and then did his best work late in The Galaxy a fortnight ago when fourth. Damian Lane will take him towards a midfield position from barrier nine, and the 2020 Schillaci Stakes winner will be cutting into the margin late as he steps out to 1200m for the first time this campaign.
7 – Order Of Command (6)
Trainer: Danny O’Brien | Jockey: Damien Oliver (58.5kg)
Danny O’Brien’s Order Of Command was superb late in The Galaxy, railing through along the rails to run second. He does rise 5kg for this, but the rise in trip and better barrier (6) will be to his liking. He will need everything to go right in order to win this.
8 – Eleven Eleven (3)
Trainer: Gregory Hickman | Jockey: Keagan Latham (58.5kg)
Gregory Hickman’s four-year-old reunites with regular rider Keagan Latham on Saturday in what will be his first attempt at Group 1 level. The gelded son of Fastnet Rock has made the Gold Coast Magic Millions Carnival is own in the last two years, winning both the 3YO Guineas and the Magic Millions Cup, which capped off a brilliant Summer Carnival that included three straight wins. From barrier three, he should get plenty of favours and will be finishing off strongly. He isn’t the worst in this, but he tends to need the run first up.
9 – Libertini (1)
Trainer: Anthony Cummings | Jockey: Tommy Berry (56.5kg)
The first of the fillies looks a genuine winning chance after finishing off strongly in the worst part of the track at The Valley in the William Reid when fresh. She has won four times at Randwick, with all four of those wins coming at the 1200m. Drawn on the inside under Tommy Berry, she will either box seat or settle one pair further back stalking her main rivals. She finished only four lengths off Classique Legend in The Everest when second up last campaign, which is strong enough form for this.
10 – Haut Brion Her (4)
Trainer: Chris Waller | Jockey: Ms Jamie Kah (56.5kg)
Chris Waller’s mare rarely runs a bad race, and while she did finish fifth in The Galaxy, she wasn’t at her best. Drawn in barrier four, she will be up in the first three of four under Jamie Kah. She finished fifth in last year’s running of The Everest at this track and trip and tends to race best when second up at 1200m. We are just concerned about how she would have pulled up from a brutally run Group 1 last time out.
11 – September Run (11)
Trainer: Chris Waller | Jockey: Craig Williams (54.5kg)
The sole three-year-old in this field is Chris Waller’s Coolmore Stud Stakes-winning filly, September Run. The daughter of Exceed And Excel was brilliant in the Lightning Stakes first up, finishing half a length off Nature Strip, and then had no luck in the Newmarket when 10th as favourite. Her run from last in the William Reid would have been good enough to win in any other year, but the pattern of the night ruined her chances and she only managed fourth. With no weight and speed on, she will be flashing late from the back of the pack.
2021 TJ Smith Stakes betting tips
We are siding with the girls, taking Libertini just ahead of September Run. They should both get plenty of luck from their bookend barriers and can benefit from the hot speed in the race. Nature Strip can brain them if he produces his best, while Bivouac gets conditions to suit.
| $100 Betting Strategy | |
|---|---|
| $40 each way | Libertini |
| $10 each way | September Run |