The horses to watch ahead of the 2016 autumn racing carnivals
IT may not come with the same attention and fanfare as its spring counterpart, but the autumn racing carnivals around Australia provide some of the best racing seen anywhere in the world.
Racing over the past couple of months has all been targeted towards the autumn carnivals in both Melbourne and Sydney, so we’re taking a look at which horses punters should be laying down their cash on in the coming months.
With the Australian Guineas, Australian Cup, Newmarket Handicap and The BMW all coming up next month, punters have little time to figure out which horse is their best futures bet. Racing in April is just as good, if not better with the Championships taking centre stage.
The TJ Smith, Doncaster Handicap, ATC Australian Derby, Queen Of The Turf and the Queen Elizabeth are the highlights of the Championships and there is no better time to invest than now.
We kick off our preview of the Autumn Carnival horses to bet on with none other than 2015 Cox Plate champion, Winx, which recently started its autumn campaign with an easy victory at Randwick.
Winx
The Chris Waller-trained star has now won eight from 14 starts and over $3.7 million in career earnings.
The four-year-old mare currently holds nominations for the Doncaster Handicap (April 2), TJ Smith Stakes (April 2), Queen Of The Turf (April 9) and the Queen Elizabeth (April 9).
It will make its next start in this Saturday’s Chipping Norton Stakes at Randwick and Chris Waller said its first-up win took no toll on the mare.
“We were lucky she had such an easy run. She drew well and as a result had a soft run in transit just behind the leader,” Waller said.
Winx is the $1.50 odds-on favourite for the Chipping Norton, but it hasn’t been able to wrestle favouritism away from Press Statement for the 2016 Doncaster Handicap.
Winx is $8 at Sportsbet.com.au as the bookmaker predicts Winx won’t be competing in the race, and instead will head to the Queen Elizabeth a week later.
Waller suggested that Winx could complete the Doncaster/Queen Elizabeth double, but it would all depend on what weight it gets.
“Winx is not quite where Sunline and More Joyous were when they won the Doncaster as older mares,” Waller said.
“I’m hoping Winx gets less weight than those mares.”
If Winx does receive a good weight for the Doncaster Handicap, it might line up and the $8 being offered now will last all of 10 seconds. We suggest backing Winx to win both races and it looks a great chance of winning the Queen Elizabeth Stakes at $2.80 with Sportsbet.com.au.
Even though Winx has run as the favourite in most of its races, it has still returned a 104 percent return on investment at an average price of $3.27. If you can get in early enough, better prices are available in the futures markets.
Press Statement
Press Statement is another Chris Waller-trained runner which started its autumn campaign with a win in the Group 2 Hobartville Stakes at Rosehill last Saturday.
The three-year-old colt by Hinchinbrook has won four of its six career starts and it now targets the Group 1 Randwick Guineas on March 5, where bookmakers have installed it as the odds-on favourite.
The bookies think it’s a good thing and CrownBet.com.au have the colt as a $1.50 favourite for the three-year-old feature in a fortnight’s time.
Waller was impressed with how it came back from a spell and has the Randwick Guineas on his radar.
“He’s a pretty special horse,” Waller said.
“He shows that at the start of his races and the end of his races.
“He is a professional. He seems foolproof.
“He’s come back about 10 kilos heavier, he’s not fat, so that tells me he’s strong.
“Randwick Guineas is firmly in his sights next and then we’ll go from there.”
If punters aren’t overly keen on the $1.50 for the Randwick Guineas, it’s also nominated for the Doncaster Handicap and TJ Smith on April 2, where you will get a much better price.
With the Doncaster Handicap being the preferred target, bookmakers have it at a much shorter price than the $21 being offered for the TJ Smith. The 1600m distance of the Doncaster is right up Press Statement’s alley and it would be a shock to not see it line up at weight-for-age.
Press Statement is the current $7 favourite at Bet365.com.au for the 2016 Doncaster Handicap. Bookmakers believe it has the edge over the likes of Winx (not confirmed to run), First Seal ($11) and top New Zealand colt Xtravagant ($13).
A better price is available in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes a week later, where it’s currently paying $17 to win. It would face a much tougher field with Winx, Isla Bonita, Criterion and Tosen Stardom all likely acceptances, but it’s a horse on the rise and punters should make some money betting it this autumn.
Press Statement has a win percentage of 75 and its average win price is $5.85. That’s a 339 percent return on investment and that will see your bankroll increase significantly.
Xtravagant
Australian punters might not know much about this son of Pentire, but it has taken hold of racing in New Zealand and it’s the current 2016 Australian Guineas favourite.
The Te Akau-owned colt has won five from eight and it won the Group 1 NRM Sprint at Te Rapa by eight lengths. That win suggested it is good enough to take on Australia’s best three-year-olds and it has stayed steady in the Guineas betting since the market opened.
It’s currently the $4.50 favourite for the Australian Guineas on March 5 and it looks a strong chance. There is plenty of hype surrounding the colt, but this looks warranted. The Guineas field is stacked with talent and the likes of Mahuta ($7), Perfect Reflection ($8) and former Kiwi runner Risque ($13) will be tough to beat, but it could be New Zealand’s next big thing.
It has only a 41 percent return on investment, but that statistic took a hit when it lost as the $1.30 favourite on an off track at Trentham. It won paying $3.25 last start and it might not race at those odds for much longer.
Xtravagant also holds a nomination for the Doncaster Handicap where it’s currently quoted at $13 with Sportsbet.