The Follow Files: Queensland mare ready to win third-up
Last Saturday, we had the first Group races of the 2023/24 season, with the Group 3 Aurie’s Star Handicap being run at Flemington and the Group 2 Missile Stakes at Rosehill. Those meetings in Melbourne and Sydney both unearthed horses to follow heading into the spring, as did the Eagle Farm races in Brisbane.
Flemington
Rail position: +10m entire circuit
Race 4: Benchmark 84 Handicap (1410m) | Time: 1:23.59
- Horse to follow: Impending Shadow (8th)
The Gwenda Johnstone-trained Impending Shadow may have only finished eighth at Flemington last Saturday, her run had a lot of merit to it. At her last four starts, this four-year-old mare has drawn barriers 12, 13, 12 and 11, which has left the jockey no choice but to take their medicine and drop to the back of the field. Even though she had to go back from a wide barrier on the weekend and the race was run to suit on-speed horses, this daughter of Impending still ran home in the fastest last 400m and 200m sectionals of the entire meeting.
When to bet: This mare has been running well in good races this preparation, but she can’t draw a barrier. If she can draw a barrier inside of six or seven over 1400m in a similar grade to last Saturday, Impending Shadow will get every chance to win.
Eagle Farm
Rail position: +5m entire circuit
Race 7: No Metro Win Handicap (1400m) | Time: 1:24.42
- Horse to follow: Heleva Deel (2nd)
Heleva Deel went into her second-up start for this preparation off the back of a good run first-up over 1100m and an encouraging trial between runs. Although 1400m at Eagle Farm was short of her best distance, the Mark Currie-trained mare performed very well. After settling at the back of the field, this daughter of Dundeel took a stack of ground of the leaders in the final 400m, recording one of the fastest last 400m (22.69 seconds) sectionals of the entire meeting.
When to bet: Throughout her career so far, Heleva Deel is yet to win over anything shorter than 1600m, so with two very good runs under her belt, this mare appears ready to win at 1600m third-up.
Rosehill
Rail position: True entire circuit
Race 8: Group 2 Missile Stakes (1200m) | Time: 1:09.67
- Horse to follow: Argentia (4th)
Due to the unfortunate breaking down of Big Parade in the Missile Stakes at Rosehill last Saturday, many of the runners were inconvenienced and held up behind slowing horses. However, at her first start for new trainer Joseph Pride, Argentia performed well after picking herself up and running on strong into fourth place. This five-year-old mare was slightly held up when the scrimmage behind Big Parade occurred with 300m to go, but to her credit she still finished off the race strong.
When to bet: Clearly it is easy to forgive a few of the runners out of the Missile Stakes, but Argentia appears to have returned in good form. If Joseph Pride keeps her at 1200m and finds a race with good speed again, we expect her to fight out the finish.