The Follow Files: Newcastle winners look the goods for next start
This Saturday we saw the start of the Perth Summer Carnival, The Pinnacles, kick off with WA Champion Fillies Day, while on the eastern seaboard we had The Hunter at Newcastle. This week we have zeroed in on three up-and-coming stars that are coming off very good runs and look to be promising horses to follow.
At Newcastle, horses were able to win from anywhere with the result depending on ability and the tempo of each race. At Ascot, however, it was definitely more beneficial to be on-pace due to the rail being out in the 6m position.
Newcastle – The Hunter Raceday
Track rating: Good 4
Rail position: True entire circuit
Race 5: Midway Benchmark 72 Handicap (1600m) | Time: 1:37.57
- Horse to follow: Floating (1st)
The Matthew Smith-trained Floating stepped up in distance and class to a 1600m Midway Benchmark 72 Handicap and it was absolutely no problem for this very talented galloper. James McDonald took the ride on this son of Puissance De Lune for the first time on Saturday and gave him a 10 out of 10 ride. He got into the perfect position, one off the rail and three pairs back, and when they rounded the home turn McDonald shook him up and rode him hands and heels as he idled up to the leaders. McDonald never went for the whip, nor did he actually let this guy go, as he trotted in by 3.5 lengths hard held. Now that he has recorded his second win in three starts, he is definitely a horse to follow.
When to bet: After being so dominant on the weekend, Floating will step up in class next start and probably stay at the 1600m. However, if he stays in Benchmark 72 grade in town next start and does step up in distance to 1800m or 2000m, it shouldn’t worry this son of Puissance De Lune, as his father won over 2400m and 2600m.
Race 8: The Hunter (1300m) | Time: 1:17.45
- Horse to follow: Vilana (1st)
The feature race at Newcastle on Saturday was the $1 million Hunter over 1300m, where Vilana was too strong for In The Congo in the concluding stages. The James Cummings-trained Vilana has now taken his record to six wins from his first 10 starts. This son of Hallowed Crown has now won the Group 3 Fred Best Classic, Silver Eagle and The Hunter early on in his career, and it seems as though the Group 1 Winterbottom Stakes is the next target.
When to bet: Vilana is currently an equal-second favourite at $6 with online bookmakers in the Winterbottom Stakes market. However, Godolphin is yet to confirm whether its two star sprinters at the top of market, Paulele and Vilana, are going to run in the November 26 feature. If Vilana does go to the Winterbottom, you would struggle to find a runner in the race with better form, so keep an eye on the acceptances when they are released on November 21.
Ascot – WA Champion Fillies Day
Track rating: Good 4
Rail position: +6m entire circuit
Race 3: One Metro Win Handicap (1200m) | Time: 1:10.49
- Horse to follow: Category Three (2nd)
It was a tough day for favourite backers at Ascot on Saturday, with only two favourites winning and three of them running a place – including the Adam Durrant-trained Category Three, who was beaten by her stablemate. At this mare’s last two starts, she has flashed home to run second after settling worse than midfield in those starts. This daughter of Xtravagant has a blistering turn of foot and clearly has talent; however, on Saturday she didn’t get any room to let down until the 100m mark. Considering this girl only went down by a neck, there is no doubt in our mind that she would have won with more luck and a clearer run earlier in the straight.
When to bet: Category Three only had her fifth career start and second start this preparation on Saturday, so we expect her to keep on racing and she should be very fit going onto her third-up run. If she can find a similar type of race over 1200m at Ascot with a fairer track, so that she can run home down the outside, we expect her to break through and record her second career win next start. This mare just needs some luck with a genuine tempo in her races, and if she gets that, she will win a lot more than she will lose.