South Australian Derby tips & betting strategy | 8/5/2021
| What | 2021 South Australian Derby |
| Where | Morphettville Racecourse, 79 Morphett Rd, Morphettville SA 5043 |
| When | Saturday, May 8, 2021 | 3:50pm AEST | Race 7 |
| Prizemoney | $500,000 |
| Distance | 2500m |
| Status | Group 1 |
| Race Conditions | 3YO | Set Weights |
| 2020 Winner | Russian Camelot (7) | Trainer: Danny O’Brien | Jockey: John Allen |
| Watch Live | |
The sole Group 1 race in Australia this weekend is the $500,000 South Australian Derby, to be run at Morphettville over 2500m. A capacity field of 16 has been assembled for this Autumn Classic, including two Group 1 winners; Explosive Jack and Personal. After upsetting his rivals in the ATC Derby four weeks ago on April 10, Explosive Jack heads the market as a $3.30 favourite, in a bid to win his third Derby (Tasmanian Derby & ATC Derby). Liquero is the second elect at $5.50, ahead of Personal who ran a slashing second in last weekend’s Australasian Oaks, while Deepstrike rounds out those runners in single figures as a $7.50 chance. Royal Mile led all of the way in the Chairman’s Stakes, a key lead up to this, so we expect to see him right on the speed from barrier two, along with Let’s Karaka Deel, Liquero, Solar Apex and Ichibansan.
There’s never a sure thing in racing, but if you had a ticket on Deepstrike in the Group 3 Chairman’s Stakes, you would’ve been thrilled with how well he was travelling along the back, and then horrified in the straight when he had nowhere to go. If we put it simply, he was a certainty beaten in our books. Nonetheless, it means we get a better price for the son of Tavistock in his Group 1 target race. Trained by Mick Price & Michael Kent Jr, the gelding has been one galloper who has been crying out for 2500m, which he will get for the first time on Saturday. He won his maiden first-up in March over a mile, before winning dominantly by two lengths over 1800m in a midweek Benchmark 64 at Sandown. His run in the Chairman’s was a total forgive, but also the perfect hit-out he would have needed. Drawn barrier nine and Damien Lane on board, he is going to get the dream run in the first half of the field and be finishing off very strongly at the end of 2500m. He will take some serious beating.
Cindy Alderson’s Liquero has won four of his five races and is just an out-and-out stayer. The son of Fiorente won the VRC St Leger Trial at Bendigo over 2200m by a length, defeating Explosive Jack who went on to win the ATC Derby at his next start, and then won the Listed Galilee Final at Caulfield over 2400m and beat home Through Irish Eyes who then won the VRC St Leger. All of the form around Liquero is very good and he has been beating those runners in easy fashion which makes him hard to ignore in this. Drawn barrier six, Luke Currie will take him forward and likely sit outside Royal Mile who has drawn barrier two. He can make this a genuine staying test and be the one to reap the benefits.
We could take the easy way out here and throw in Personal or Explosive Jack, and while we concede they are the class of the field and two horses that can win, we believe this might be just one run too many for both gallopers, so we are going to look a bit wider. Son of Dundeel, Abreed, went across the line alongside Deepstrike in the Chairman’s and had a very similar run in transit, but we are getting $46 about him instead of the $7.50 about Deepstrike. The Andrew Noblet-trained gelding won his debut at Geelong in good fashion but was very green, and then showed that he had a lot to learn when third to the talented Madama Boitier at start two. His first two runs this campaign were admittedly plain over the mile, with the gelding looking like he needed further. He got that in the Chairman’s, and although he finished ninth, he wasn’t beaten far and never got a crack at them. Drawn barrier 12, local jockey Jason Holder will take him back towards the tail, but with plenty of speed on and even luck he can be charging into the placings.
| $100 betting strategy | |
|---|---|
| $40 win + $60 place | Deepstrike |
[rmOC_events_list event_ids=1368657_07]