|What||Festival Stakes Day 2021|
|Where||Rosehill Gardens Racecourse – James Ruse Dr, Rosehill NSW 2142|
|When||Saturday, November 27, 2021|
|First Race||12:20pm AEDT|
|Feature Race||Group 3 Festival Stakes (Race 8)|
HorseBetting’s New South Wales form analyst brings you his thoughts on all 10 races at Rosehill Gardens this Saturday, as well as his best bets and quaddie numbers for the day. The Group 3 Festival Stakes (1500m) is the feature, while the Listed ATC Cup (2000m) and Listed Starlight Stakes (1100m) will also be run and won. The track is rated a Heavy 8, the rail is in the true position, and the first race is set to jump at 12:20pm AEDT.
Race 1: 2YO Handicap (1100m)
A group of 14 two-year-olds will contest the opening race of the afternoon, with only four of them having had race experience. We are siding with the race experience over the debutants and backing Hard To Say to win his first race at start two, after running fourth in the Breeders’ Plate on debut. The Jason Deamer-trained son of Exceed And Excel was only 1.9 lengths off the classy Sejardan on that day over 1000m, hitting the line nicely from the back of the field, so the step up in trip should suit. The colt has been back to the trials and won impressively, so we are tipping that he can take that to the races now.
Race 2: Class 2 Highway Handicap (1200m)
Country gallopers get their crack at a metropolitan win in this Class 2 Highway, and two horses in this field are looking to remain undefeated. They are the $2.80 race favourite, Participator, and a $15 chance in Limited Reality. While Participator has been more impressive in his two wins to date, Cameron Crockett’s three-year-old has had the benefit of racing and winning on a Heavy 10 track when he took out the Silver Goblet at Dubbo as a two-year-old back in June. The son of Unencumbered has placed in all three trials leading up to this, while he should get a soft time of it out in front from barrier three.
Race 3: Midway Benchmark 72 (2000m)
The third race of the day is a Benchmark 72 Midway over 2000m that looks one of the trickier fields to line up. We have been with Jazzland in his last couple, and while he has been the bridesmaid in his past three runs, this race looks much easier than what he has contested recently. He has copped a fair weight penalty, however, which brings him back to the field a bit. Drawn in the inside alley, Josh Parr will take this front-running seven-year-old to the head of the field and look to lead all of the way to bring up the gelding’s eighth career win.
Race 4: Listed ATC Cup (2000m)
The first of the black-type races on the Rosehill card is the Listed ATC Cup, which has a field of only six horses after the scratching of Bonvicini. Mightybeel has been impressive in winning three of his past four, but he is yet to race on a Heavy track, while in his two Soft track starts, the best he could manage was second in a maiden at Newcastle, so we are happy to be against the favourite here. One runner that relishes Heavy conditions is the Annabel Neasham-trained Blue Soldier. This son of War Front won the Listed Ladies Day Cup at Hawkesbury on a Heavy 8 two starts back when leading all of the way, before going to The Gong last Saturday and running a very commendable sixth on a Soft 6. Back onto a Heavy track and out to 2000m should give Tom Sherry every chance to control this and be hard to run down. The $12 looks tasty.
Race 5: Benchmark 78 (1100m)
The ultimate gear change can work wonders, so we are hoping the newly gelded Mr Mosaic can get back to winning ways. The big flashy chestnut was a force to be reckoned with early in his career, but his mind wasn’t on the job last preparation when he finished eighth of 12 at this track and distance in the same grade with only 56kg on his back. From that run, he drops only 0.5kg after Reece Jones’ 3kg claim, while he will also feel two-stone lighter. From barrier two, the Gerald Ryan & Sterling Alexiou-trained five-year-old can make every post a winner.
Race 6: Benchmark 78 (1800m)
New King probably would have won at Rosehill on November 17 if it wasn’t for an on-pace bias, but we are happy to be with him on the Heavy track this weekend. The Matt Dale-trained five-year-old finished just over one length behind So United, but he meets that galloper 1.5kg better here and also drops 3.5kg himself. This son of Frankel is one from one on a Heavy track, while 1800m looks to suit. From barrier six, Kerrin McEvoy will be looking for a forward position from where he can strike in the straight.
Race 7: Listed Starlight Stakes (1100m)
A hot Starlight Stakes will kick off the Rosehill quaddie, and it would be blasphemous of us to tip against Tambo’s Mate as he looks for a third-straight win. This six-year-old Queenslander has won 10 of his 26 career starts, including the Listed Keith Noud Quality at Doomben a fortnight ago. The son of Mossman is undefeated from four starts on rain-affected going, so he should relish the wet track on Saturday, while 1100m will be right up his alley. Barrier three looks perfect for champion jockey James McDonald to get every conceivable chance on this gelding in his Sydney debut. This looks another one of Tony Gollan’s hit-and-run missions on the southern states.
Race 8: Group 3 Festival Stakes (1500m)
Outside of race favourite Ellsberg, the featured Festival Stakes is a wide-open affair, so we are happy to go hunting for a bit of value. Stockman is rated a $26 chance by the market after running 12th of 15 in The Hunter first-up, but that came on a Good 4 track over 1300m, which was never going to suit. The Joseph Pride-trained gelding now gets out to 1500m second-up and gets onto a bottomless track, which is going to bring him into this up to his ears. The son of Tavistock has won three from four on Heavy tracks and has filled the placings on six of eight occasions on Soft going, so he clearly swims. Drawn in the carpark out in barrier 16, Jay Ford will likely snag him back towards the tail of the field and let him rip in the straight. Follow him as he gets out over a bit further.
Race 9: Benchmark 78 (1300m)
They love their Benchmark 78s in Sydney, so much so that there are four of them on Saturday. In the penultimate, Expat returns after stringing a few wins together at the back end of her last campaign, and she looks primed to pick up from where she left off. The Mark Newnham-trained four-year-old has won five of her nine starts thanks to a front-running racing style that makes her very hard to catch. Both trials this time in have seen her run second under a stranglehold, which we like to see. Barrier 14 is the only concern, but Tom Sherry’s 2kg gets her in with only 57.5kg, and she has the tactical speed to cross, lead, dictate and win.
Race 10: Benchmark 78 (1500m)
Rounding out the day is another Benchmark 78, this time over 1500m, and it is another lottery. The past few meetings at Rosehill have favoured on-speed runners – whether or not the wet track will change that remains to be seen – but Too Much Caviar looks to get a real picnic in front from barrier one. The Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott-trained four-year-old led all of the way at Randwick on Melbourne Cup Day, before he got run down very late at this track and distance on November 17 by Born A King. The son of All Too Hard is yet to race on a Heavy track, while in his only other run on a Soft track he finished second to the talented Wicklow, so there is a case to be made that he will handle it. Jean Van Overmeire has done all the work on this horse, so he can be rewarded with a Saturday metropolitan win here. The 4kg drop in weight looks ideal too.
Rosehill quaddie tips for Festival Stakes Day
|Rosehill quadrella selections|
|Investment:||$144 for 100%|