Red Roses Stakes 2020 runner-by-runner betting guide
| What | Red Roses Stakes |
| Where | Flemington Racecourse – 448 Epsom Rd, Flemington VIC 3031 |
| When | Thursday, November 5, 2020 | 5:50pm AEDT | Race 9 |
| Prizemoney | $200,000 |
| Distance | 1100m |
| Status | Group 3 |
| Race Conditions | 3YO fillies at set weights + penalties |
| 2019 Winner | Aryaaf – 56kg (10) | Jockey: Luke Nolen | Trainer: T Dabernig & B Hayes |
| Recommended Betting | |
Red Roses Stakes betting preview
The Group 3 Red Roses Stakes closes out Oaks Day with a field of 16 three-year-old fillies doing battle over 1100m down the Flemington straight. Boom horse Written Beauty has come up a short-priced favourite after a dominant victory at The Valley on Manikato Stakes Night. The final event on Oaks Day 2020 will jump at 5:50pm AEDT.
#1 Letzbeglam (6)
The Busuttin & Young filly has been well held in both starts so far this campaign, finishing midfield to Swats That last time out in the Thoroughbred Club Stakes at Caulfield four weeks ago. In her juvenile campaign, she took out the Blue Diamond Prelude and was well in the market for the Blue Diamond itself. That shows she has the class to be competitive here, but we would prefer to let her go around this time.
#2 Bella Nipotina (5)
The Quezette Stakes winner earlier in the spring was not beaten far by Swats That in the aforementioned Thoroughbred Club Stakes. She just missed last time out in the Red Anchor Stakes, where she was trapped three wide, no cover throughout and went down by less than half a length. She should have no issue in getting a bit of cover in this, but does she have the turn of foot needed to be competitive in the closing stages?
#3 Mildred (11)
Graeme Begg and Jordan Childs will look to build on the impressive front-running displayed this filly showed in the Red Anchor Stakes a fortnight ago. Throughout this year, she has chased home the likes of September Run, Farnan and Ole Kirk and been competitive in most of those events. If she can get back to that form here, she could prove a knockout hope.
#4 Minhaaj (13)
In both of her runs this campaign, the Dabernig & Hayes filly has chased home the rising superstar September Run and only been beaten by a length and a half. She maps to settle alongside the market favourite in the Red Roses and looms as the main danger. If she can match motors when the whips get cracking, she will be fighting out the finish.
#5 River Night (10)
One of the rank outsiders in the Red Roses, this Ellerton & Zahra filly was beaten by a combined 26 lengths in her last two starts. She was one of the first beaten in the Thousand Guineas Prelude after racing keenly in the early stages. Although River Night did finish two lengths behind Bella Nipotina in the Quezette Stakes, she looks outclassed here despite dropping back to 1100m
#6 Written Beauty (16)
It was hard not to get excited by the Hawkes team’s talented filly when she bolted in her last start at The Valley a fortnight ago. She broke Nature Strip’s track record in the process and showed she is one to watch for the future. The only query is she is yet to run down the Flemington straight, but she has the clear class edge on this field. With William Pike on in the last event on Oaks Day, she will have the weight of a nation on her and looks incredibly hard to beat.
#7 Standoff (2)
Her first run as a three-year-old in the Cap D’Antibes Stakes seven weeks ago showed this filly has plenty left to do before she will be competitive in a race like this. She is set to be one of the backmarkers and doesn’t have the turn of foot to chase down the front runners or go with the leading market hopes. We’re happy to let her go around until she finds something easier.
#8 Joviality (7)
SCRATCHED
#9 Maha (14)
Tony and Kerrin McEvoy team up with a filly who maps to take up the running of the Red Roses Stakes and will look to make it a genuine tempo throughout. She was well beaten early on in the straight in the William Crockett Stakes last time out, but that came after a brave performance to be beaten by just over a length to September Run in the Poseidon Stakes. If she gets an easy time of it up front, she will give a big sight at odds.
#10 Celestine (9)
The second of four Tony McEvoy runners has begun her career in fine style. She is yet to run outside of the quinella in all four of her career starts and has already won down the straight at Flemington. The runner who finished third in that event has since won to frank the form. She did head back to Adelaide for a run at Morphettville three weeks ago and was well beaten in a BM75, but she had excuses. Celestine looks a promising type and should not be left out of exotics.
#11 Highly Discreet (3)
Phillip Stokes’ filly has placed on two occasions from three starts this campaign and has seen some market support in all three starts. She will be giving the leaders a head start as she builds through the gears from the back of the field, but she’s shown in the past that she can sustain a big run. She drops a kilogram off her last-start third in the William Crockett Stakes and is one of the better value plays in the Red Roses Stakes.
#12 Marboosha (1)
The Snowden stable’s filly strung together a couple of impressive wins in the winter at Sydney during her juvenile campaign. She resumed four weeks ago when chasing home Written Beauty and was well held, going down by three lengths in an easier race than this. Written Beauty has won again since then, and Marboosha may find it hard to keep up with the favourite when they meet once more this Thursday.
#13 Chianti (12)
The Kris Less-trained filly split Written Beauty and Marboosha upon resumption at Warwick Farm a month ago, going down by two lengths after getting the gun run just off the leaders’ heels. She maps to be up on pace from barrier 12 and is one of the dangers to the favourite. If she can handle the Flemington straight, there’s no reason why she can’t be fighting out the finish.
#14 Either Oar (14)
After stringing together back-to-back wins at Kembla Grange and Newcastle, Gwenda Markwell’s filly takes the step up from a Class 1 to a Group 3 on Oaks Day. She maps to be up on speed but may struggle to go with the market fancies when they make their moves. Although she has a handy record to date, Either Oar looks to be outclassed here.
#15 Zoushine (8)
The lone maiden in the field looks to be out of her depth despite having the 2020 Melbourne Cup winner, Jye McNeil, on board. She had every chance to chase down the leader at Ballarat last time out, but she battled away only fairly to go down by over a length. Zoushine showed promising signs in her juvenile campaign when finishing close to Ecumenical, but she still hasn’t broken through and this looks to be a step too far.
#16 Amuri (15)
Tony McEvoy and Jamie Kah team up with this front-running filly who absolutely bolted in by six lengths at Morphettville four weeks ago. She gave nothing else a chance in the running and looks to be one of the main dangers to the favourite in this race. Amuri should handle the Flemington straight with no issue, as she experienced it on debut in the Cap D’Antibes Stakes two starts back.
Best bets for 2020 Red Roses Stakes
| $100 Betting Strategy | |
|---|---|
| $100 win: | Written Beauty |
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