Punting form & free tips for Thursday racing at Moonee Valley

Moonee ValleyGROUP 1 racing moves to a Thursday night this week with the $530,000 William Reid Stakes at Moonee Valley included in a quality eight-race card.

The night could forever be remembered as Victorian trainer Peter Moody’s last night in the industry before serving his cobalt suspension. He is represented by two runners – Flamberge and Kinglike – which should have plenty of support.

Moody also three runners lining up in the WilliamHill Sunline Stakes at 9:45pm.

A great night of racing starts with the Adapt Australia Handicap, where the Robert Smerdon-trained Clemency holds favouritism.

Sign up to WilliamHill.com.au for the best WilliamHill Sunline Stakes odds this Thursday night.

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Race 1 – Adapt Australia Handicap (1500m)

Clemency is a quality four-year-old which has won its last two narrowly. The Robert Smerdon-trained mare has yet to finish out of the money in six starts and even though the slight drop back in distance isn’t ideal, it looks a top chance at $4.20.

Into The Mist has been supported at $5.50 despite running poorly at Flemington last start. The Tony McEvoy-trained mare finished ninth in the Tressady Stakes which is tougher than this. There are concerns, however, as it hasn’t won since September 2015 and this is its first start at Moonee Valley. We would be surprised to see its price drop.

Better Land is Peter Moody’s first runner for the night and punters will get a better price now than on the night. The son of Shamardal is an enigmatic type which is dropping in grade after running fourth at Sandown last time out. It beat a nice horse in Satya two back and that form should hold nicely for this. Chances increase if there’s some rain around.

Race 1 tip: Clemency to win ($4.20) at WilliamHill.com.au

Race 2 – Jeep Tour Middle Distance Final (2040m)

Darren Weir lines up current $3.30 favourite Tenacitus which is jumping from the mile to the Cox Plate distance of 2040m. The six-year-old hasn’t won for some time now, but punters are laying into it and that could be the Weir factor. It finished third last start at Sandown and it was probably entitled to win, so taking the low odds here is in hope that it will get better over more ground. Too much risk for our liking.

Zahspeed has a placing at this distance to its name and it is coming off a win at Ballarat. The four-year-old gelding went forward last start and held off all the challengers for a narrow win. It has placed twice on this track from three starts and it looks the biggest danger here. Bookmakers are offering an each way price of $5.

Word Of Mouth was average at Rosehill last start, but it thrives at this distance and there were some funny results being posted that day. It has won and placed at Moonee Valley which is always a good statistic and it can handle all track conditions. Drawn wide, but will have plenty of time to find a spot with Dwayne Dunn in the saddle. Looks good value at $7.

Race 2 tip: Word Of Mouth to win ($7) at Sportsbet.com.au

Race 3 – Ascend Sales Trophies 3YO Plate (1200m)

Sooboog is an interesting colt which has ability, but punters can find it frustrating. The Hawkes-trained colt has been close this season, but it had an absolute shocker at this track two starts back. The three-year-old finished last and 10.2 lengths from the winner. It has since run second in the Moomba Plate at Flemington, but maybe the Valley isn’t its place. $4.60 with bookmakers.

Keen Array is the class horse of the field, but punters deserve to be a little weary after its last two outings. The Hayes/Dabernig-trained gelding finished 15th in the Oakleigh Plate and then eighth in the Newmarket Handicap. It rises from 50kg to 59.5kg which is a big concern, but its form prior was outstanding and it won its only start on this track. Its opening quote of $2.40 has drifted to $2.50 and if it’s back to its best, those odds will look silly.

Stellar Collision is a gelding on the rise after running third in the Moomba Plate. The three-year-old was unbeaten in three starts prior to that placing and it should progress through the grades nicely. This isn’t the easiest race, but it should be fit third up and bookmakers have it on the third line of betting at $5.

Race 3 tip: Keen Array to win ($2.50) at CrownBet.com.au

Race 4 – Art Series Alexandra Stakes (1600m)

Jacqui’s Boy is a former New Zealand filly which has won three since arriving at the Beer/Hinton stables. The three-year-old won its maiden at Kilmore before winning back-to-back in rating 70 grade. Last start it finished an unlucky seventh in the Kewney Stakes and it looks a solid chance at redemption in this. Craig Williams rides from barrier two and its opening price of $7 has been slashed into $5.50.

Thames Court couldn’t have been more impressive on this track last start. The David Brideoake-trained filly won by two lengths and it looked good doing so. Brideoake’s confidence will up sky high after winning a group one last Saturday and punters should take notice. It has drawn awkwardly in barrier 11, but the $4.50 suggests it can still win.

Sweet Redemption has been everywhere this season and it now races at its sixth different track in a row. The Gai Waterhouse-trained filly has raced in Queensland, Sydney, Tasmania and now Melbourne since December which should have it in fit order. It has been holding its form well since disappointing in the Vo Rogue and bookmakers have it safe on the second line of betting at $4.80.

Race 4 tip: Jacqui’s Boy to win ($5.50) at Bet365.com.au

Race 5 – Jeep 55 Second Challenge (955m)

Sheildel is a quality runner which comes over from Perth with an impressive record. Now in the Hayes/Dabernig stables, the four-year-old mare looks ready to take on this company. It has won 11 from 15 with six coming at this distance and it has won on all surfaces. The Perth sprinting ranks don’t stack up well this season, but the $3 suggests it has a winning chance.

Bullpit is twice a winner at Moonee Valley and it wasn’t disgraced in a tough race last start. The four-year-old excels at this distance with four wins and three placings, and jumping from barrier four with Craig Williams riding will do it plenty of good. It does tend to mix its form so treat wearily at $6.50.

Beau Rada has a good record of six wins and four placings from 20 starts. The Hard Spun gelding has had five starts at Moonee Valley which will suit perfectly for this run and it won a Jeep 55 Second Challenge only five starts back. Drawing barrier nine over this distance isn’t ideal, but the $7 looks like good each way value.

Race 5 tip: Beau Rada to place ($2.50) at Sportsbet.com.au

Race 6 – Mitchelson Wines William Reid Stakes (1200m)

Lucky Hussler is a quality group one performer which was extremely unlucky in the C.F. Orr Stakes last start. The Darren Weir-trained gelding is an eight-time winner and it hasn’t finished worse than third in three starts at this track. With form behind Turn Me Loose and Suavito, it looks a great winning chance at $3.20.

Peter Moody has been bullish about the chances of Kinglike and it could give him a fantastic send off. The talented three-year-old isn’t suited by the weight scale, but it has any amount of ability and it has experience winning on this track. It didn’t have the best of luck last start and still managed to run second behind former Golden Slipper placegetter English. The $8 price won’t last long with the sentimental support likely to come.

Japonisme is a group one-winning gelding which needs to lift a touch after a disappointing run in the Newmarket Handicap. The Chris Waller-trained runner is having its first start around this track and despite drawing barrier 11, it has Hugh Bowman in the saddle and group one class never goes away. The $7 is a good value price.

Race 6 tip: Kinglike to win ($8) at CrownBet.com.au

Race 7 – WilliamHill Sunline Stakes (1600m)

Wawail showed good ability in winning the Tressady last start and drawing barrier one is ideal. The Hayes/Dabernig-trained mare is best when racing in front and it has won and placed in two starts at Moonee Valley. Damien Oliver rides and it looks a solid winning hope at $7.50.

Fenway is a quality type, but its winning rate is of concern. The Lee and Shannon Hope-trained mare has won only three from 14 starts, but most of its form has come against the toughest opposition. It ran second in the Peter Young Stakes behind Bow Creek two back and fourth behind Preferment in the Australian Cup last start. It opened at $2.60, but has since drifted out to $3.

Danny O’Brien lines up Miss Rose De Lago which has yet to win around the Valley, but brings in solid form this campaign. It ran third in the Mannerism Stakes at Caulfield before running fourth in the Matron Stakes last start. It is twice a winner at the mile and it will get a charmed run from barrier two. Bookmakers are offering up $6 for the win.

Race 7 tip: Wawail to win ($7.50) at WilliamHill.com.au

Race 8 – City Jeep R70 Handicap (1200m)

Cosmic Lights is a lightly-tried five-year-old which won by 4.5 lengths on debut. The Luke Oliver-trained gelding ran as a $1.80 favourite at Bendigo last start where it finished third and it should be better off with that run under its belt. It has drawn 13 which makes it very tough here, but bookmakers have it well supported at $4.80 in the betting.

Heza Ripper is the $4.60 favourite as it has an unbeaten fresh up record. The four-year-old kicked off its career with two wins on either side of the Tasman and it should have returned in good order. This isn’t an easy race to resume in, but keep it in mind and follow any positive market moves.

Caprese is another well supported runner at $5. The Amalfi gelding doesn’t have the best win strike rate and it has never won on this track, but it likes this distance and Oliver being in the saddle usually brings the price down a touch. Could take this out, but we want a better price.

Race 8 tip: Cosmic Lights to win ($4.80) at Bet365.com.au

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