|What||Gold Coast Magic Millions 3YO Guineas 2022|
|Where||Aquis Park, Gold Coast Turf Club – Bundall, QLD|
|When||Saturday, January 15, 2022|
|Conditions||Three-Years-Old | Set Weights plus Penalties|
|2021 Winner||Aim (15) | Trainer: Peter & Paul Snowden | Jockey: James McDonald (56kg)|
The second of the two $2 million races to be run on Saturday at the Gold Coast is the Gold Coast Magic Millions 3YO Guineas. Run over 1400m, there is sure to be a steady tempo, with pace from the Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott duo, Shihonka and Snitzonfire, while Indiscreetly, Release The Beans and Dovetail Diva will all be up on the pace as well. As is the case in most years, this year’s 3YO Guineas is a wide-open betting race, with Jamaea holding on to favouritism at $5.50, just ahead of King Of Sparta ($6), Starman ($7), I Am Lethal ($7.50) and the undefeated Indiscreetly ($9). It’s a tough race, but here at HorseBetting, we’ve made your work easy for you, with our Queensland racing analyst dissecting the full field of 23, and providing his top four picks and $100 Betting Strategy.
Bend The Knee
1. Bend The Knee (20)
3yoC| T: John O’Shea | J: Kerrin McEvoy (56.5kg)
The top weight for this year’s 3YO Guineas is somewhat the new kid on the block. John O’Shea’s three-year-old colt, Bend The Knee, has only had five starts since his debut on June 23, but he has already notched up a Listed win in the Springtime Stakes at Flemington on Stakes Day. The son of Snitzel was freshened since his Listed victory and raced fresh in the Gosford Guineas (1200m) on December 29, where he only battled away to run fifth. Kerrin McEvoy has ridden this colt twice for a win and a second, so the pair’s reunion could pay dividends, but barrier 20 sure makes it hard. He’s in with a live chance, but he will need some serious luck go his way on Saturday.
2. JAMAEA (8)
3yo F | T: Robert & Luke Price | J: Tommy Berry (56kg)
There is no doubt that the race favourite brings the majority of class to this race, so we can understand why she tops the betting. Jamaea, a filly by Headwater, is already a dual Group 2 winner – once as a two-year-old, and then again recently as a three-year-old in the Furious Stakes (1200m). Robert & Luke Price have targeted this race for their $900,000-earning filly, and while 1400m first-up is a slightly tough ask, she’s had the benefit of three good trials leading in and is going to get a perfect run from barrier eight under Tommy Berry. She is the top seed.
King Of Sparta
3. KING OF SPARTA (13)
3yo G | T: Peter & Paul Snowden | J: Nash Rawiller (56kg)
The Snowden’s won this race last year with Aim, and this horse looks slightly better credentialed than Aim. The son of I Am Invincible has been a model of consistency throughout his career, with some of his top runs coming behind Home Affairs and Paulele during the Sydney Spring Carnival. The gelding resumed in the Gosford Guineas a little over two weeks ago, and after looming like the winner at the turn, fitness told late and he just died on his run to finish third. He should take plenty of improvement out of that performance, which will make him very hard to beat. From barrier 13, Rawiller can land in a good spot midfield and really thunder home down the centre of the Gold Coast straight.
Release The Beans
4. RELEASE THE BEANS (14)
3yo G | T: Robert Heathcote | J: Brett Prebble (56kg)
Rob Heathcote’s gelding Release The Beans has won four of his seven career starts, stringing a hattrick of wins together in his last racing campaign during the winter. The son of Spill The Beans returned in superb fashion when third in the Listed Gold Edition Plate after leading throughout, before not a lot went right on a detereorating Heavy 10 track in the Group 3 Vo Rogue Plate on January 1st. The gelding is a two-times winner over this distance, while he will relish getting back to a dry track. If Prebble can get across from gate 14, he will be a chance.
Far Too Easy
5. FAR TOO EASY (15)
3yo G | T: David McColm | J: Craig Williams (56kg)
The fifth horse that we take a look at is the David McColm-trained Far Too Easy. The son of All Too Hard made a brilliant start to his racing career, winning four of his six races, with his only two defeats coming on a day that he bombed the start and motored home to run fourth, and the other coming just recently at Listed level when second behind Me Me Lagarde. The Murwillumbah-based galloper has been set for this race, but we just have to question slightly his ability to see out a solid 1400m, with his best form at 1200m. He is a classy galloper though with plenty of untapped potential.
6. STARMAN (7)
3yo G | T: Chris Waller | J: James McDonald (56kg)
Having won the 2YO Classic 12 months ago, Chris Waller will be looking to add to a brilliant 12 months with a win in the Magic Millions 3YO Guineas with Starman. The son of Zoustar has won three from six, including a dominant 3.25-length romp at this track on January 8 over 1200m, defeating Frosty Mango. Starman has only had one attempt at 1400m, and that came two starts back when he disappointed as favourite to run fourth behind Toomuchtobear at Randwick, so his 1400m form has to be questioned slightly, however his win on Saturday looked as if they ran another 200m he would have won by 10 lengths. From barrier seven under the world-class James McDonald, Starman will get one of the runs of the race and be right there in the finish. He’s a definite top three chance and one of the major players.
7. CONSTRUCT (6)
3yo G | T: Peter & Paul Snowden | J: Jim Byrne (56kg)
The lesser chance of the two Snowden gallopers is Construct. The son of I Am Invincible won his maiden five starts back at Kembla Grange. He has since placed at Group 3 level behind Tiger Of Malay and Coastwatch before spelling. Construct’s two runs back this time in have been a decent enough, while 1400m should be up his alley. Keep him safe.
I Am Lethal
8. I AM LETHAL (21)
3yo C | T: John O’Shea | J: Hugh Bowman (56kg)
John O’Shea has a strong hand in this year’s Guineas, with both Bend The Knee and I Am Lethal well-supported in the market. This colt by I Am Invincible was pretty impressive winner of a 3YO Benchmark 72 on New Year’s Day on the Kensington track over 1300m. While he has won three of his six starts, but they have all been in benchmark races. From the outside alley, we wish connections luck, but it’s a big pass from us. No thank you.
9. RHAPSODY ROSE (12)
3yo F | T: Chris Munce | J: Ben Thompson (54.5kg)
After running a shocker when a heavily backed favourite in the Listed Gold Edition Plate on December 18, most expected to see Rhapsody Rose put away in the paddock. Her trainer, Chris Munce, opted to forgive that run due to the Eagle Farm surface, so we expect her to bounce back. The Star Witness filly has a brilliant record, and she’s even a winner over 1400m, so it is pretty hard to rule her out. From barrier 12, she’s likely to roll forward and be in it for a long way.
10. MISS HIPSTAR (4)
3yo F | T: Kelly Schweida | J: Larry Cassidy (54.5kg)
Miss Hipstar brings pretty similar form lines as Rhapsody Rose, albeit a touch inferior to her. The Star Turn filly has had 12 starts for four wins and three minor placings, with one of those placings coming last start at Group 3 level behind Tiger Heart and Shihonka. Drawn barrier four, Larry Cassidy is going to have this filly right up on the pace with some cover, which will put her right around the mark. She needs to improve a touch, but she is classy enough.
Me Me Lagarde
11. ME ME LAGARDE (23)
3yo F | T: Toby & Trent Edmonds | J: Robbie Fradd (54.5kg)
Me Me Lagarde comes into this race as a genuine winning chance after a barnstorming victory in the Gold Edition. This daughter of Star Turn has won three of her four starts and looks to have some realy ability, which she will of course need. Having drawn barrier 23, her chances are somewhat lessened, but she has a get back, run on racing pattern anyway, so it will give Fradd the chance to keep her out of trouble which could be important. We’re including her in the mix.
12. GLORIOUS RUBY (3)
3yo F | T: Bryan Dais | J: Andrew Mallyon (54kg)
Glorious Ruby started her career off in really good fashion, but she hasn’t been able to reach those heights again this preparation. On her day, this Your Song filly can be competitive in a race of this nature, but we’re happy to see her go around on Saturday.
13. SHIHONKA (9)
3yo F | T: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott | J: Tim Clark (54kg)
We said in our Gold Coast Magic Millions 2YO Runner-By-Runner Preview that Tim Clark is one of the best front-running riders, and that could partially come down to the fact that he rides a lot of horses for the Waterhouse/Bott stable, who typically train their horses to lead. The stable saddle up classy filly Shihonka in Saturday’s Guineas, where she is bound to be competitive. The filly by Capitalist has only been out of the placings on one occasion, and that was when 11th of 12 in the Group 3 Thoroughbred Club Stakes on October 9 at Caulfield. Shihonka bounced back in a big way after that disappointing run, recording back-to-back wins in gritty style. Her unlucky second at Doomben on New Year’s Day can easily be forgiven given the state of the track, so we think she has to be considered.
14. INDISCREETLY (18)
3yo F | T: Danny Bougoure | J: Georgina Cartwright (54kg)
Danny Bougoure and Georgina Cartwright combine with unbeaten filly, Indiscreetly. This front-running galloper by Spill The Beans has led all of the way in all three of her career starts, winning by 1.75 lengths, 2.25 lengths and 6.25 lengths respectively. At her most recent outing, Indiscreetly defeated an average bunch of middle distance three-year-olds in the $100,000 City To Surf Plate over a mile. Bougoure now drops her back to 1400m and places her in her toughest test to date, where she for the first time will have to face some quality opposition. She can only beat whe she has been up against, but this might be a reality check.
15. Mishani Enchanted (22)
3yo F | T: Les Ross | J: N/A (54kg)
16. RUBY KISSES (17)
3yo F | T: Gerald Ryan & Sterling Alexiou | J: Brock Ryan (54kg)
Ruby Kisses raced well in the 2YO Classic 12 months ago, but she just isn’t going well enough to be competitive in this $2 million race. She was beaten five lengths by Jamaea in the Furious Stakes in September, and her form hasn‘t been any better since, so we can’t really see how she recovers from that.
17. DOVETAIL DIVA (16)
3yo F | T: John Symons & Sheila Laxon | J: Stephanie Thornton (54kg)
Dovetail Diva stuck on gamely in the Vo Rogue behind Tiger Heart and Shihonka, but she does look better suited to shorter trips. The Headwater filly rarely gets beaten far given her natural front-running pattern, so she will no doubt be in it for a long way, we just can’t envisage her being there at the end.
18. SOCIALIST (1)
3yo F | T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace | J: Jason Collett (54kg)
Socialist is one filly who we have always had a little bit of time for, so we can’t write her off completely. Drawn barrier one under Jason Collett, this daughter of Capitalist is going to be up there handy we would imagine, using the rails to her advantage and stalking the speed. The filly was a good winner first up, before finishing 2.5 lengths behind I Am Lethal a fortnight ago. The winner of that race was more impressive, but there is a 4.5kg weight swing in Socialist’s favour, which has to be taken into account. She will run a bold race.
EMERGENCIES FOR MAGIC MILLIONS 3YO GUINEAS
19EM1. SNITZONFIRE (2)
3yo G | T: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott | J: Ryan Maloney (56kg)
Having had to sweat on getting a start, Snitzonfire will join his stablemate Shihonka in the final field as there has already been one scratching. The son of Snitzel won his first three starts, leading all of the way, before running fourth, third and third again in his next three starts. Drawn barrier two, Maloney will boot through and lead this capacity field, and he is likley to be there for a long way. The gelding ran third to I Am Lethal and Socialist last time out, and meets the winner 4kg better at the weights as well. Include.
Alert And Ready
20EM2. ALERT AND READY (10)
3yo F | T: Kevin Kemp | J: TBA (54kg)
Alert And Ready was a good last-start winner at Toowoomba over 1210m, racing away to win by nearly four lengths, but that doesn’t look the right form for a Magic Millions 3YO Guineas.
21EM3. MISHANI SCANDAL (19)
3yo G | T: Les Ross | J: TBA (56kg)
Mishani Scandal has won one of 12 and has been beaten a collective 17.4 lengths in his four runs since December. You or I could probably beat it home.
22EM4. SUTTO’S GAL (5)
3yo F | T: Kevin Kemp | J: TBA (54kg)
This filly was a winner over 1600m three starts back and then boxed on well enough behind Tiger Heart in a Group 3 a fortnight ago. That’s not the worst form.
Our Hot Friend
23EM5. OUR HOT FRIEND (11)
3yo G | T: Les Ross | J: TBA (56kg)
A model of consistency is Our Hot Friend albeit in lesser grade. He would be competitive if he was gifted a 400m headstart, but even that might not be enough.
Magic Millions 3YO Guineas Betting Tips
In a race like this, we are confident that the cream rises to the top, so we are right in Jamaea’s corner. She is by far the highest rated galloper in this race, and given that she is a filly, she gets in pretty well at the weights. Fitness could tell late, but from barrier eight she just gets every possible chance. Starman has to be respected off his most recent win, and the addition of James McDonald is only an added bonus, while King Of Sparta should improve greatly from his first-up run. Me Me Lagarde is the best roughie in the race at around $13, with the outside alley her main concern.
|Magic Millions 3YO Classic $100 betting strategy|
|$10 Each Way||Me Me Lagarde|