Hawkesbury racing tips & value bets | Thursday, October 21

Hawkesbury betting tips

What Hawkesbury Races
Where Hawkesbury Race Club – Racecourse Rd, Clarendon NSW 2756
When Thursday, October 21, 2021
First Race 1:05pm AEDT

HorseBetting’s New South Wales form analyst brings you his best bets and quaddie numbers for Thursday’s eight-race program at Hawkesbury. The track is rated a Soft 5, while the rail is out 3m from the 1100m to the 450m and true for the remainder. The field for the first race of the day will face the starter at 1:05pm local time.

Hawkesbury Best Bet – Smirnova

We are taking the shorts about Smirnova in race four in the hopes that the three-year-old filly can remain unbeaten. Trained by Team Hawkes, this daughter of Snitzel was brilliant in winning her maiden on debut at Newcastle over 900m, coming from off the speed to win by a length over the short course. Drawn in barrier two under Tommy Berry, Smirnova should be able to settle a touch closer and box seat before pulling away again over the 1000m journey. She should have taken plenty of benefit from her debut run.

Best BetRace 4 – Smirnova (#8) $1.90 with Sportsbet

Next Best at Hawkesbury – Garnish

From a Snitzel filly to a Snitzel colt, this Gerald Ryan & Sterling Alexiou-trained galloper looks primed to go back-to-back in the seventh on Thursday. Garnish has had just three career starts and broke his maiden last time out at Wyong over 1350m. On debut, he finished fourth to Minsk Moment, who has since won at Moonee Valley and then went on to run third in the Blue Sapphire Stakes at Caulfield behind Extreme Warrior and Profiteer. The three-year-old got a dream run last time out at Wyong from barrier three under Tim Clark, so given that Clark retains the ride and the pair have drawn barrier one, he should get a similar run as he steps out to 1500m for the first time. He looks very hard to beat again.

Next BestRace 7 – Garnish (#7) $2.50 with Sportsbet

Hawkesbury Value Bet – Holy Empress

Scott Singleton and Alysha Collett combine in the last with Roman Emperor mare Holy Empress. The six-year-old has only won four from 33 career races, but her last-start second in the Spring Cup at Armidale suggests she is getting close to a win. While we would have preferred to see this girl step out beyond the 1900m of her last start rather than come back to 1800m like she has, she does drop 1.5kg to 55kg and goes up only slightly in class from a Benchmark 66 to a Benchmark 68. Holy Empress finished 11th in the Group 3 Dark Jewel at Scone just five starts ago, where she was far from disgraced as a $201 rank outsider. She has placed twice at Hawkesbury and is a winner over 1800m in the past, so we expect her to run much better than her $27 quote suggests.

Best ValueRace 8 – Holy Empress (#13) $27 with Sportsbet

Thursday quaddie tips for Hawkesbury

Hawkesbury quadrella selections
Leg 1: 1-2-10
Leg 2: 1-2-6-7
Leg 3: 1-7
Leg 4: 1-2-4-5-7-13
Investment: $144 for 100%

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