Group 1 Moir Stakes early market betting tips
IT’S never too early to have a bet on Australian horse racing and Sportsbet already has a fixed odds market for the Group 1 Moir Stakes at Moonee Valley on Friday night.
Punters should take note that the current market offered isn’t an “all-in” market, so if your selected runner isn’t nominated for the Moir Stakes, you will get your money refunded.
The $500,000 Group 1 Moir Stakes is a night race held at Moonee Valley over 1000m on Friday, September 30 and many punters see it as the most important sprint race of the Melbourne spring carnival.
Having formerly been held on Cox Plate day, the Moir Stakes was moved to the night racing circuit in 2013 to provide an entrée for the AFL Grand Final held on Saturday.
Queensland champion Buffering has had a mortgage on the Moir Stakes, winning in 2012, 2014 and 2015, but it will have its work cut out for it this year with sprinting champion Chautauqua among the likely entrants.
2016 Moir Stakes betting market
Chautauqua – $2.25
Extreme Choice – $3.50
Buffering – $6.50 at Sportsbet
Lucky Hussler – $6.50
Heatherly – $11
Redzel – $11
Wild Rain – $13
Chloe In Paris – $15
Ball Of Muscle – $17
Hucklebuck – $21
Alpha Miss – $31
Our Boy Malachi – $31
The Quarterback – $51
We’re predicting that if Chautauqua lines up it will be much shorter in the market. The Hawkes-trained champion is an extremely popular pick with punters and the $2.25 is about the best price punters will get this week.
Extreme Choice has been well backed at $3.50 following an impressive two-year-old campaign. The Mick Price-trained three-year-old kicks off its spring preparation in the Moir Stakes following an unlucky run in the Group 1 Golden Slipper behind Capitalist.
The form out of that race is still under scrutiny and its form throughout that two-year-old year could be negatively dissected, but it’s a colt with plenty of pace and should figure in the finish.
The value is with three-time winner Buffering which has been working well in preparation for this and the Queenslander has made Moonee Valley home for the last six years.
2016 Moir Stakes betting guide and top tips
Chautauqua – $2.50 at Sportsbet
The six-year-old is one of the best sprinters in the world having won the Group 1 Chairman’s Sprint Prize in Hong Kong and it kicks off its spring campaign in the Moir Stakes.
It most recent run at Moonee Valley was a win in the Group 1 Manikato Stakes where it defeated the likes of Srikandi and Rebel Dane by two lengths and its only other run at The Valley was a win in the McEwen Stakes.
Punters could have concerns about the 1000m distance around a tight-turning track, but Chautauqua thrives on its ability to sling-shot a field and The Valley is perfect for that.
We’re expecting a big run and there’s only one runner (Buffering) which could push it close on ability.
Buffering – $6.50
Buffering continues to fly under the radar and bookmakers should know better after they gifted punters $7 in last year’s Moir Stakes.
The Robert Heathcote-trained sprinter is looking to bounce back from a disappointing effort in the Chairman’s Sprint Prize where it finished last, but that came at the end of a campaign which included two group one wins.
Buffering started its 2015 season with a half-length win in the Moir Stakes before finishing midfield behind Chautauqua in the Manikato Stakes three weeks later. It again finished midfield behind Delectation and Chautauqua in the Darley Classic before embarking on a successful trip across Australia.
It travelled to Perth for the Group 1 Winterbottom Stakes which it won well by a length before heading back across the country to the Gold Coast where it comfortably won the Magic Millions Plate over a field which contained no superstars.
A trip to Dubai was now in order for the then eight-year-old where it highlighted the carnival with a gallant win in the Al Quoz Sprint.
It might be a nine-year-old this season, but don’t discount Buffering in the Moir Stakes on Friday night.
Extreme Choice – $3.50
Firstly, we think the bookmakers have Extreme Choice a touch short in the market, but it’s not without ability.
The Mick Price-trained three-year-old won its first three career starts before finishing eighth in the Golden Slipper behind Capitalist.
We question the form throughout its two-year-old year, starting with its Group 3 Chairman’s Stakes win at Caulfield. The second placegetter was Highland Beat which was performed solidly since, but is certainly no star and in third position was Gratwick which finished third at Murtoa in its only start since.
Quite often Golden Slipper form doesn’t translate in the following season, especially against the older horses and that’s what Extreme Choice is facing here. Taking on horses which have won all over the world isn’t easy and it looks outclassed.
In its favour is pure speed. If it jumps the barriers it could be hard for the back markers to run it down and after missing the jump in the Golden Slipper, its chances were all but extinguished. Market support on the night will suggest how forward it is this campaign, but we’re prepared to risk it at that price.
The rest of the field don’t appear quick enough over the distance. Heatherly and Redzel have speed and will likely go forward, but neither runner has faced this class before and they should be hauled in late.