Group 1 Golden Rose betting guide with form and free tips

Golden Rose

THE 2016 Group 1 Golden Rose has been one of the most highly anticipated races this year and a cracking field of 14 three-year-olds will take their place.

Running for a stake of $1 million, the Golden Rose field features quality thoroughbreds from Australia’s top racing stables and we have sorted through every runner to give our best Golden Rose tips for this Saturday’s big race.

Held at Rosehill at 3.10pm on Saturday, September 10, the Golden Rose signals that spring has well and truly arrived and punters have been salivating for this race for months.

The best place to take your Golden Rose bet is with CrownBet which will give up to $50 in bonus bets if your Golden Rose selection finishes second or third.

2016 Golden Rose market

1. Astern – $4.40 at CrownBet.com.au
2. El Divino – $15
3. Good Standing – $51
4. Divine Prophet – $4.80
5. Nikitas – $61
6. Thronum – $41
7. Impending – $12
8. Derryn – $13
9. Mediterranean – $31
10. Oink – $126
11. Chamalu – $126
12. Yankee Rose – $7.50
13. Omei Sword – $3.80
14. O’reilly Cyrus – $126

Golden Rose form guide and race tips

1. Astern

The John O’Shea-trained colt came into Golden Rose calculations when it won the Run To The Rose last start. That is typically a good form guide for the Golden Rose and it looked to have strengthened from an impressive campaign prior.

The winner of four from five has disappointed only once which came in the Group 1 Golden Slipper, but punters should turn the page on that effort and be excited about what’s to come. The son of Medaglia D’oro has won twice on at Rosehill and handles all track conditions with two wins coming on a good surface and two wins on a slow surface.

Drawing wide in barrier 12 is a concern, but it’s an adaptable type and earlier in the week it was the clear favourite before Omei Sword was accepted for the race. The $4.40 available at CrownBet is much better value than what’s being offered elsewhere and it’s a clear winning chance.

2. El Divino

The half-brother to Winx hasn’t done much wrong in three career starts and it gave the impression that it needed the resuming run in the Run To The Rose last start. The Waterhouse/Bott-trained colt won by 4.8 lengths on debut at Gosford before dead-heating with Astern in the Kindergarten Stakes at Randwick.

It’s a well-bred son of Snitzel which is bred for speed and the only query punters have is whether it can see out the 1400m distance. Drawing barrier four will allow it to settle which adds appeal and having Hugh Bowman in the saddle is a bonus.

There is still some indecision in the betting for El Divino, but it’s a type which could go under the radar and loyal punters might score themselves a handy payday.

3. Good Standing

Trainer James Cummings is monitoring the weather as he doesn’t want to run Good Standing on a rain-affected track. With a weather forecast showing sunny skies, the three-year-old colt should be lining up and its chances will improve significantly on a good track.

The son of Artie Schiller finished 10th in the Golden Slipper before enduring a tough run in the Sires’ Produce where it battled on well for fifth behind Yankee Rose. It didn’t enjoy the conditions last start, but there’s potential for it to rebound with a good performance here.

Punters will definitely be taking a risk backing Good Standing, but the $51 on offer at CrownBet is good value and it could be the surprise package for the minor money.

4. Divine Prophet

Following its scintillating win in the Up & Coming Stakes at Randwick, Divine Prophet has been one of the best-backed runners in this year’s Golden Rose.

The Hawkes-trained three-year-old finished off strongly to score the win and it franked its Champagne Stakes placing from its previous campaign. The son of Choisir looks to have plenty of improvement left and will certainly improve with more distance, so expect it to drop back from barrier 10 and flash home in its customary style.

$4.80 is a touch short for our liking at this stage, but take nothing away from its ability and Tommy Berry is one of the best tactical riders in the world.

Crownbet.com.au

5. Nikitas

It’s tough to say if Nikitas has improved since arriving in Chris Waller’s stables, but it hasn’t had the best of luck this preparation and to finish sixth in the Run To The Rose was a solid performance.

The former Queenslander travelled wide throughout, but finished only 4.5 lengths behind Astern and whilst it’s going to be up against it to turn that margin around, there is some potential to.

It ran second behind Capitalist in the Magic Millions and third in the Sires’ Produce at Doomben which is form that should stack up nicely this spring so consider for place options at double-figure odds.

6. Thronum

The Waterhouse/Bott-trained colt burst onto the scene with consecutive wins to start its career. The son of Snitzel won narrowly on debut before putting three lengths on Morton’s Fork which has since won impressively.

It then missed the jump at Canterbury behind Tango Rain which has since proven to be a good form line and it produced a slick sprint when winning the Rosebud Stakes at Randwick over race-rival Mediterranean. It went hard from the outset in the Up & Coming Stakes and it will likely be forced to work hard from barrier 13 in this.

We rate Thronum highly, but it won’t be able to set them up in front here and punters are best to wait for something a little easier. Opened at $34 for the win, but has drifted remarkably to $51.

7. Impending

Impending comes into this with only three runs under its belt, but it had no luck in behind Astern last start and the stable is expecting a big effort here.

The good-looking son of Lonhro won by 2.5 lengths on debut before running an unlucky third in the Ken Russell Stakes at Gold Coast. It suffered another bad luck run last start where it was cramped for room in the Up & Coming Stakes and the increase in distance should make it a winning proposition in this.

Drawing barrier two should ensure it lands on the speed and settles into a nice forward position. Jockey Brenton Avdulla is more than capable of winning the big races and Impending is worth a shot at $12 with Sportsbet.

8. Derryn

Derryn came from Melbourne having won impressively at Caulfield and it didn’t do much wrong last start behind Divine Prophet.

The Hayes/Dabernig-trained colt finished a close second and showed plenty of fight down the Randwick straight. It looks like a colt which will mature further over this preparation and having already had two starts this campaign will be of benefit here.

It opened at $11 and has drifted to $13, but despite what critics say about the Melbourne juveniles, it wouldn’t surprise us to see Derryn performing at a high level in the Golden Rose.

9. Mediterranean

The Smart Missile colt comes into this having run on well in the Run To The Rose last start when fifth behind Astern. The Snowden-trained runner has shown glimpses of ability this campaign and it should be in fit order having had three starts already.

It has shown a liking to rain-affected tracks which it might not get on the day, but the increase in distance to 1400m is what it has been waiting for and the $34 being offered by bookmakers is certainly a good price.

Unlikely to attract much attention in the betting, but don’t rule Mediterranean out if everything goes its way.

WilliamHill.com.au

10. Oink

Kelly Schweida lines up Oink which probably shouldn’t be in the field after running fourth in a class 6 race at Doomben last start.

The three-year-old by Sebring showed some potential when it finished second in the Ken Russell Stakes, but it has since failed to impress and a win in the Golden Rose looks highly unlikely. The $126 represents its winning hopes.

11. Chamalu

Chalamu won well on debut at Sunshine Coast, but this is a big rise in class and it will likely find it too tough.

The son of Redwood did receive the inside barrier draw which means it can create its own luck, but based on what we’ve seen so far, it would need to be a special talent to take this out at $150 after opening at $201.

Look to others for your long-shot bets.

12. Yankee Rose

It is hard to believe Yankee Rose opened at double figure odds, but punters were quick to jump on and bookmakers were quick to adjust.

The Group 1 Sires’ Produce winner has had some injury troubles which put some early punters off, but it looked better in a recent trial and there’s no denying its talent. Having finished second behind Capitalist in the Golden Slipper, it then won the Sires’ by 2.5 lengths in what was an impressive display.

The David Vandyke-trained filly gets the benefit of a lighter weight of 54.5kg and if it has the fitness in its legs, it could finish over the top of them late. Not our top pick, but this filly should never go underrated.

13. Omei Sword

There was plenty of doubt as to whether Omei Sword would line up in the Golden Rose, but it’s running and it looks a strong winning chance at $3.80 with CrownBet after opening shorter at $3.20.

The well-bred Chris Waller-trained filly was impressive when winning the Silver Shadow at Randwick last start, but this is much harder and it was disappointing when last running in this class.

It finished only ninth in the Sires’ Produce behind Yankee Rose, but it has looked to have improved since that run and champion jockey Joao Moreira is a nice addition to the saddle. It has drawn ideally in barrier three and it could have one last run at them.

$3.80 is far too short to tip confidently, but it should be fighting out the finish.

14. O’reilly Cyrus

Has been set for this race all preparation, but it’s another runner which is outclassed. The Liam Birchley-trained three-year-old won on debut before heading over to New Zealand for the Karaka Million where it finished seventh.

It has been unable to win since and a finish inside the first half of the field would be a surprise. Deserves to be a triple-figure chance.

2016 Golden Rose predicted finishing order

1. Astern
2. Omei Sword
3. Impending ($3.60 to place) at Sportsbet.com.au
4. Divine Prophet
5. El Divino
6. Yankee Rose
7. Derryn
8. Good Standing
9. Mediterranean
10. Thronum
11. Nikitas
12. Chamalu
13. O’reilly Cyrus
14. Oink

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