Group 1 BMW form and free tips for Rosehill, Saturday March 25
SYDNEY autumn racing continues at Rosehill this Saturday with the Group 1 BMW and the Group 1 Vinery Stud Stakes.
The quality nine-race card features some of Australia’s best thoroughbreds and we have all the form, updated odds and free tips for the meeting.
Also on the card is the Group 2 Tulloch Stakes which features a talented field of three-year-olds and also the Doncaster Prelude which is usually a good form guide to the Doncaster during The Championships.
The action never stops at Rosehill this Saturday and punters are getting enhanced odds for every runner in The BMW with Ladbrokes.com.au.
Race 1 – The Schweppervescence Handicap (1400m)
Muraahib scored consecutive wins to kick off its career and it didn’t lose any admirers last start. The Lindsay Park-trained colt finished sixth behind stablemate Catchy in the Blue Diamond after travelling four-wide throughout. Unsure about the track conditions, but this is a massive drop in class and it goes close at $6.50 if it’s anywhere near its best.
Most of the money has come for Astoria which scored impressively on debut. The John O’Shea-trained colt won by 3.5 lengths at midweek level, which isn’t an overly great guide for this race, but respect the amount of money coming for the two-year-old. It opened at $4.60 and has already shortened into $4.20.
Villa Carlotta scored a narrow win on debut before battling away for third behind Golden Slipper placegetter Frolic. The form out of the Reisling Stakes has stood up on the big stage and albeit finishing over seven lengths from the winner, it could continue that form. Chance with Bowman riding.
Race 1 tip: Muraahib to win ($6.50) at Sportsbet.com.au
Race 2 – E-Group Security Kingdom Stakes (1200m)
Impending should have improved after two runs this campaign and it wasn’t far behind Le Romain in the Canterbury Stakes last start. That form has been franked and although the sprinting distance isn’t right up its alley, it runs best at Rosehill and it shouldn’t mind the conditions. Drifting in the market, but consider at $4.
Also drifting in the market to $4 is Danish Twist. The Kris Lees-trained mare flew home to finish a narrow third in the Coolmore last time out which was an incredible run and it grows another leg in the wet. It has won three from nine on a slow track and we would be surprised to see it finish outside of the placings.
The money has come for noted wet tracker Jungle Edge which relished conditions when third behind Russian Revolution in the Group 1 Galaxy last Saturday. The Mick Bell-trained gelding has won nine from 22 starts on the rain-affected ground and it’s not at $51 again this week. It opened at $7.50 and has tumbled into $4.80 in a big betting move.
Race 2 tip: Danish Twist to win (+300) at CrownBet.com.au
Race 3 – Neville Sellwood Stakes (2000m)
Floodlight is an imported runner for John O’Shea which was working home well in the Ajax Stakes last start. The former French-based runner had solid form overseas which included a quality win in July and we all know how well international form stacks up in Australia. The $4.80 is a generous price from bookmakers and it has a great winning chance.
Astronomos is the current $2.70 favourite after destroying its opposition at Randwick last start. The John Thompson-trained gelding put 3.8 lengths on the field and it added to its already impressive wet-track statistics. It has won four times from five starts on a heavy track and also at its only start on a slow surface. That’s why bookmakers have it short and it only needs to find space off the inside rail to feature.
Zasorceress produced a huge run to finish second behind Circular at Flemington last start and it has also been well-backed at $5. The Weir-trained mare has placed twice on slow tracks which will be the concern coming into this race. The weight of 53kg is a big help so consider.
Race 3 tip: Floodlight to win ($4.80) at Ladbrokes.com.au
Race 4 – Rydges Parramatta Doncaster Prelude (1500m)
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Rudy has been an extremely expensive horse for punters to follow, but the support has come again. The Helen Page-trained gelding opened at $8 and has firmed into $6.50 due to its record on wet tracks. It has won four times on a heavy surface which reads well, but this isn’t an easy race and it may have lost the ability to win a race. We’re not ruling it out, but beware of taking short odds.
Imported runner Spectroscope couldn’t have been more impressive winning first-up in Australia last start. The O’Shea-trained runner produced a big finish to win at Rosehill and dropping down to 53kg is ideal for this. The wet conditions won’t be a concern and we can see this European continue to win at this level. $3.60 available with bookies.
Echo Effect was scratched from an easier race at Kembla Grange for this which shows confidence. The three-year-old showed its ability when running second in the Hobartville last start and the form out of that race should stack up nicely. It’s unbeaten in two starts on heavy tracks and it should be in the mix.
Race 4 tip: Spectroscope to win (+260) at Bet365.com
Race 5 – Power Distribution Tulloch Stakes (2000m)
Jon Snow has been confidently backed into $3.80, but we think the money might be misplaced. The New Zealand-trained colt has been performing well this season without winning, but it’s way under the odds as an overreaction to the success of the New Zealand-raced runners in Sydney this carnival. It has been running at double-figure odds at home and we wouldn’t be taking the current odds on offer after rating it a $10 chance.
Prized Icon is the best-performed horse in the field which didn’t fire on the heavy track last start. It will face similar conditions here which isn’t ideal, but it has been nicely backed into $3.40 and that should be respected. It has won twice on a slow track so any easing of the surface brings it right back into contention.
Rock And Swing didn’t race over generously in the Phar Lap Stakes last start, but there’s some raw ability there. The James Cummings-trained colt finished off nicely prior to that on this track which suggested it had come back in good order and it’s not the worst chance in this at double figure odds.
Race 5 tip: Rock And Swing to place ($3.70) at Sportsbet.com.au
Race 6 – The BMW (2400m)
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Humidor couldn’t have been more impressive when winning the Group 1 Australian Cup last start. The Weir-trained Kiwi runner charged home to defeat Jameka and running over the 2400m will pose no problems for the son of Teofilo. It has handled wet conditions in the past by winning its only start on a heavy track and it looms as a major winning chance at odds of $4.40.
Our Ivanhowe relished the wet conditions to win the Ranvet Stakes last start and it will get conditions to suit again. The Freedman-trained horse powered home to beat the likes of Hartnell and it should find this slightly easier. Second-up is a worry, but it could pay to stick with the in-form import.
Jameka opened at $4.20 and has firmed into $4 following a placing in the Australian Cup. The talented mare has looked solid in three runs since running 15th in the Melbourne Cup and it could be time to strike now. It goes well on wet tracks despite the fears from trainer Ciaron Maher, so expect it to fight out the finish.
Race 6 tip: Our Ivanhowe to win (+280) at Ladbrokes.com.au
Race 7 – Vinery Stud Stakes (2000m)
La Bella Diosa burst onto the scene with a win in the Surround Stakes, but it was too much too soon in the Coolmore. The New Zealand filly finished last with a vet problem at Rosehill, but it’s in with a chance here given the track conditions. The Surround Stakes win came on an extremely heavy track and with conditions to suit on Saturday, it looks a chance at $5.50.
Dawn Wall is a rising start which has rattled off three consecutive wins. The Waller-trained filly looked good when winning the Kembla Grange Classic and although it faces a much harder field, there has been support at $5.50. It might pay to follow any further betting moves for the daughter of Fastnet Rock.
Foxplay couldn’t have been more impressive when winning the Phar Lap last start after it settled back and flashed home to score. The filly by Foxwedge has plenty of class and a good record on rain affected tracks. It has good experience winning at Rosehill and it should prove tough to beat again. It’s concerning that it is drifting in the market to $3.60, but that’s good value.
Race 7 tip: Foxplay to win (+260) at Sportsbet.com.au
Race 8 – Ascend Sales Trophies Emancipation Stakes (1500m)
Dixie Blossoms had no luck when being caught wide last start so punters should forgive it. The Ron Quinton-trained mare has yet to win at Rosehill from four starts, but it won its only start on a heavy track and it should be one of the top contenders here.
Daysee Doom is the equal favourite at $4.80 after showing good speed in the Coolmore. Also trained by Ron Quinton, the four-year-old is twice a winner on this track which is handy and it has won three from five starts on a slow surface. It’s facing some seasoned runners in this, but consider with raw talent.
Zanbagh has been specked from $7.50 into $7 after it ran on nicely last start. The six-year-old usually improves with racing under its belt and it hasn’t been far away in two runs this campaign. It handles the wet and Bowman is a nice addition to have in the saddle.
Race 8 tip: Dixie Blossoms to win ($4.80) at Palmerbet.com.au
Race 9 – EFM Logistics Handicap (1400m)
Handfast has placed at its last two starts, but will be forced to carry 60.5kg for this. The O’Shea-trained gelding has a good record at this distance and form on wet tracks, which is a good sign, but it rises up over 6kg since its last run at Canberra. It’s not going to be easy which is why it’s drifting to $4.20 in the betting.
Stablemate Ancient History get the light weight and it shouldn’t be overlooked. The imported runner was a winner over 2000m in France last year and despite being beaten at Kembla Grange last start, it would have strengthened up nicely and the $6 on offer is a value price.
Mr Individual is a professional type which has won five from 15 starts. The Melbourne-based four-year-old made solid ground at Moonee Valley last start and it should find this level of racing well within its reach. Each way hope at $6.50.
Race 9 tip: Ancient History to win ($6.50) at Sportsbet.com.au