Free form, analysis and tips for Saturday races at Flemington
A HUGE day of racing is scheduled at Flemington this Saturday with the $1.3 million Group 1 Newmarket Handicap and the $1.6 million Group 1 Australian Cup.
The Newmarket Handicap is yet another showdown of Australia’s best sprinters which is headed by none other than Chautuaqua. Hot on its heels is the Chris Waller-trained Japonisme which has been rock solid in the market to beat the grey star.
The Australian Cup has attracted a good field which includes only one last start winner. That’s Bow Creek which destroyed a similar field in the Peter Young Stakes and punters have it well-favoured again.
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Race 1 – Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes (1200m)
The well-favoured runners are the backwash of the Blue Diamond which includes current $4.40 favourite Zamzam. The Hayes/Dabernig-trained filly ran a slashing third in the Blue Diamond last month and it should continue to improve as it steps up over more ground. The daughter of Redoute’s Choice has drawn well in barrier eight and it should handle the Flemington straight.
Concealer was disappointing in the Blue Diamond when it finished ninth, but it looks ready made for the Flemington straight. It won by half-a-length on debut down the straight and it shouldn’t have to worry about starting slow from the barriers. The Tony McEvoy-trained filly has drawn ideally in barrier 11 and punters have it firmly in their sights at $4.50.
Soviet Secret has placed in both career starts and it hasn’t done itself any favours. The Sam Pritchard-Gordon-trained filly finished second on debut when it was dive-bombed by Jackson and second up it was slow away before being blocked in the straight. Drawing wide on the track will help it here and the addition of Damien Oliver in the saddle is a bonus. It looks a threat at an each way price of $6.
Tip: Zamzam to win ($4.40) at WilliamHill.com.au
Race 2 – MSS Security Sires Produce Stakes (1400m)
Clinton McDonald lines up Revolving Door which has Blue Diamond form running through it. The two-year-old colt finished fourth behind Flying Artie in the Prelude and it was finishing off stoutly. It continued that form when it won at Sandown and despite that being a much easier race, it held on well and Hugh Bowman is happy to be in the saddle. It opened at $3.80 and has dropped slightly into $3.70.
Seaburge finished second behind Revolving Door at Sandown and it didn’t have much luck in the running. The son of Sebring didn’t get clear running till late in the race and it couldn’t quite pick the winner up, but the extra distance will suit here and drawing the inside barrier will give it a soft run. It does need time to wind up so jockey Mark Zahra will need to push out, but it looks a win chance at $4.20.
Hot Dipped is a Tasmanian filly which is unbeaten in three starts and has attracted plenty of attention with bookmakers. The Written Tycoon filly is paying $4.20 after winning the Gold Sovereign at Launceston last start and it was an eight-length winner prior. It looks untapped, but analysts must weigh up how Tasmanian form stacks up in Victoria. We’re not sure and are prepared to risk, but it’s an interesting runner.
Tip: Revolving Door to win ($3.70) at Sportsbet.com.au
Race 3 – Goodwood Racecourse Moomba Plate (1100m)
Stellar Collision is unbeaten from three starts for trainer Darren Weir and it defied a betting drift to win at Moonee Valley last start. The Star Witness gelding has looked good in winning all three starts and it showed good ability last start when travelling wide and sustaining the run. This is much tougher, but it should get a nice drag into the race and the $7 looks like nice each way value.
Brockhoff has been the best backed runner and is now paying $4 after opening at $4.60. The Ciaron Maher-trained colt was unlucky to not win in the Zeditave Stakes last start behind Santa Ana Lane and after two runs this preparation, it should be in fit condition. It looks well placed against this field and punters will likely continue to back it.
Bassett is handy in the market at $5. The Peter Moody runner looked the winner last start before being reeled in late and the shorter distance is more to its liking. The son of Savabeel is unbeaten in two starts at this distance which bodes well for this and it could go forward and try pinch it. The Flemington straight isn’t ideal for that tactic, but consider in an even race.
Tip: Brockhoff to win ($4) at CrownBet.com.au
Race 4 – Blamey Stakes (1600m)
Stratum Star was gallant in defeat behind Turn Me Loose in the Futurity Stakes. The Weir-trained horse has prepared nicely for this all preparation and it’s nearing another top class win. It has yet to win at the mile which is concerning (placed in all four starts), but this looks within its reach and bookmakers installed it as the early $2.80 favourite.
The United States has the flashing light on it after flying home in he Futurity. The Robert Hickmott-trained stayer flashed home for fifth and its second up form reads well with one win and a placing from two starts. The connections have a big opinion of the six-year-old, but Flemington hasn’t been a happy hunting ground and there might be a few that are too sharp for it at this stage. $4.50 for the win and drifting.
Trust In A Gust has been disappointing in three runs this campaign. It went forward and did too much work in the Futurity, but with a better run in transit it could produce a better effort here. It has won 10 from 22 starts and that class should be respect. Bookmakers aren’t prepared to risk it and are offering $5 for the win.
Tip: Stratum Star to win ($2.80) at WilliamHill.com.au
Race 5 – Kewney Stakes (1400m)
Pasadena Girl hasn’t won for awhile is becoming a headache for punters, but it runs well at Flemington with two wins and it ran well enough at Caulfield last start. The Moody-trained filly needed some time after running fourth in the Crown Oaks during the spring carnival and it should be ready to fire second up here and Glen Boss rides at a luxury weight of 55.5kg. $8.50 in the betting after opening at $7.50.
Don’t Doubt Mamma couldn’t have been more impressive when beating a top quality field in the Vanity last start. The Tony McEvoy-trained filly hasn’t done much wrong in its career and it is unbeaten in three starts at this distance. The big hit was drawing barrier 16 which will make it awkward, but it should be considered for the win at $5.50.
Catch A Fire has won its past two races and it went to another level by winning the Armanasco last start. The Hayes/Dabernig-trained filly went from maiden winner at Moonee Valley to stakes winner in two starts and it couldn’t have won more impressively last start. It has drawn well in barrier four and connections believe it’s another strong winning chance again. It opened at $4.80 and has drifted slightly to $5, but support could come for it late in the betting.
Tip: Catch A Fire to win ($5) at Sportsbet.com.au
Race 6 – Newmarket Handicap (1200m)
Japonisme was game in defeat behind Chautauqua last start, but the run was much better than expected. The Chris Waller-trained gelding will be better over more distance so this will suit and there is plenty of confidence from punters. It will carry only 52.5kg for this which is quite outstanding and Chautauqua will have to carry 7.5kg more than it. $3.90 looks about right and it should be tough to beat with the conditions.
Chautauqua is a lethal sprinter and it showed that in the Lightning last time out. The Hawkes-trained gelding produced a scintillating turn-of-foot to overhaul Terravista and Japonisme and punters think a repeat effort could be on the cards. It hasn’t finished out of the money in seven starts at Flemington and it only needs a moderate pace up front to show its best. Carrying 58kg against some quality runners at lower weights isn’t easy, but it could overcome that. Currently at $2.50 after fluctuating all week.
The Quarterback could offer some value at $26. The Robbie Griffiths-trained gelding is a Flemington specialist and it has finished out of the money only once in six starts at this distance. It ran on solidly last time out at Caulfield and although it’s not up to this class, it could sneak into the minor money at $5 a place.
Tip: Japonisme to win ($3.90) at Sportsbet.com.au
Race 7 – Australian Cup (2000m)
Suavito hasn’t done much wrong this preparation with a C.R Orr Stakes win followed up by a solid effort for third in the Futurity Stakes. The daughter of Thorn Park has won twice at Flemington which helps and there’s no real reason why it should be paying $7.50 in the betting. It opened at $8 so punters have snapped up the early value and it should get a shot at them late.
Bow Creek couldn’t have been more impressive in scoring its first win in Australia. The British import flew home to win the Peter Young Stakes with a turn-of-foot good enough to win most races. It has drawn awkwardly in barrier 11 so Damien Oliver will have to work his magic, but expect it to settle mid-pack and produce another flashing finish. Current $3.20 favourite.
There was nothing wrong with Fenway’s last start second in the Peter Young and it’s at a better price for this. The Lee and Shannon Hope-trained mare incredibly opened at $13 which has been taken and it now sits at $10. It doesn’t win often which is what hurts punters, but the four-year-old has plenty of ability and a win wouldn’t surprise anyone.
Tip: Suavito to win ($7.50) at CrownBet.com.au
Race 8 – Schweppervescence Trophy Matron Stakes (1600m)
Miss Rose De Lago has been the best backed runner of the field. The Danny O’Brien-trained mare opened at $4.80 and has come tumbling into $3.50 on the back of very strong support. It fought hard in behind the highly-touted Azkadellia last start and despite having placed only once from five starts at Flemington, it looms as a major winning chance.
Noble Protector opened at $3.30 and has come in for support to $3.20. The classy six-year-old burst onto the Australian scene by winning this race last year and it followed that up with a win in the Sunline Stakes at Moonee Valley. Only three runs since and two of them have been poor, but it’s good on its day and punters should follow any positive market moves.
Sacred Eye is a drifter in the betting, but shouldn’t be left out of calculations. The Hayes/Dabernig-trained filly ran fifth in the Vanity behind Don’t Doubt Mamma and its run prior came in the Crown Oaks. It’s starting to rise up in distance where it’s most comfortable and the $12 looks like good value in this.
Tip: Noble Protector to win ($3.20) at WilliamHill.com.au
Race 9 – My Kitchen Rules Stakes (1400m)
Yesterday’s Songs doesn’t have a great strike rate, but it is warming into a win nicely after running fourth on this track last start. The Michael Moroney-trained gelding is twice a winner at this distance and has taken on some tough fields of late. This looks slightly easier and it has been well supported at $4.20.
Tried And Tired is a seven-time winner which has run well in 13 starts at this distance, winning three and placing in six. It is coming off a poor recent effort at Caulfield where it ran eighth behind Heatherly, but the shorter distance didn’t help and it looks better suited to this. Bookies have it safe in the market at $4.60.
Jessy Belle ran on well enough behind Wawail last start to be considered in this. The five-year-old ran fourth and the back-to-back runs at Flemington should help its cause. It likes this track, but after opening at $4.20 it has drifted out to $4.60.
Tip: Yesterday’s Songs to win ($4.20) at Sportsbet.com.au