Empire Rose Stakes 2020 runner-by-runner betting preview

Pretty Brazen

What Empire Rose Stakes
Where Flemington Racecourse – 448 Epsom Rd, Flemington VIC 3031
When Saturday, October 31, 2020 | 2:20pm AEDT | Race 5
Prizemoney $1,000,000
Distance 1600m
Status Group 1
Race Conditions Weight for age
2019 Winner Melody Belle – 57kg (13) | Jockey: Opie Bosson | Trainer: Jamie Richards


2020 Empire Rose Stakes form guide

The Group 1 Empire Rose Stakes for the ladies over 1600m has attracted a field of 14, including a trio of three-year-old fillies. One of those is Odeum, who starts the favourite ahead of Mystic Journey. It’ll be a genuinely run mile, with Felicia, Forbidden Love, Chica Fuerte and Shout The Bar all go-forward horses that will create space for Mystic Journey and Odeum to park behind them.

1 – Mystic Journey (5)

The inaugural All Star Mile winner looked ready to retire early in the spring after a few lacklustre runs, but she bounced back big time at The Valley. Prior to that, she was only 5.5L off Behemoth and Mr Quickie, which looks to be the right form. Kerrin McEvoy takes the ride for the first time and should settle off the pace in the first half. If she is right, she’s the one to beat.

2 – Nettoyer (8)

This mare won the Doncaster in the autumn at big odds but hasn’t really fired a shot since. She ran an ordinary race seven days ago in the Cox Plate and now drops back to a mile, which isn’t ideal. She’ll be out the back and finishing off well, but we don’t think she is good enough to win this.

3 – Madam Rouge (12)

Third elect in the market is Chris Waller’s Madam Rouge. She placed in the Stradbroke during the winter and has been racing well of late, but she maps awkwardly from barrier 12 here. The mile looks a query also, with her best work coming at 1400m in the past. She’ll run on strongly, but we can’t find her.

4 – Pretty Brazen (6)

Pretty Brazen comes into this after a fairly plain run behind Madam Rouge and She Shao Fly over the 1400m at Caulfield. The start prior was a total forgive, but she finished 1L off Behemoth at Group 1 level and beat Arcadia Queen home in the Let’s Elope. She will get a great run from barrier six and should finish strongly. Top chance.

5 – Vanna Girl (1)

The Queensland mare will fly the maroon flag, but dropping back to 1600m has us questioning if she’ll be strong enough. Her form looks to be better out over 2000m, as we saw during the winter and, to an extent, at her last outing when third in the Craven Plate. She’ll find this easier in mares grade and will get a good run from the inside alley, but we can’t have her in our numbers on Saturday.

6 – Shout The Bar (11)

She won the Vinery back in the autumn, beating home Probabeel, but she has performed well below her best since. She’ll go forward under Damien Oliver, but we expect her run in the straight to be short-lived.

7 – Asiago (2)

Asiago won the Mona Lisa at Wyong in September but hasn’t fired a shot since then. Her runs the Melbourne way have been plain, and she does look outclassed at Group 1 level. Mark Zahra and James Cummings are both in good form, which could assist, but she isn’t going well enough.

8 – Missile Mantra (9)

Missile Mantra returned to form in her last two starts, running third and fourth respectively while hitting the line well in both. Her only placing over a mile came in last year’s Thousands Guineas, and it’s been 18 months since her last win. Not for us, but she can be in the finish.

9 – Felicia (10)

Felicia looks one of the leaders in the race, but the big query is if she’ll get 1600m. She has never been tested over the mile and looked to knock up late over 1400m against similar opposition, so we suspect she’ll struggle here. She hasn’t missed the place in her last seven starts, so we can’t write her off completely, but she can win without us.

10 – She Shao Fly (3)

The Kevin Corstens-trained mare is in career-best form, narrowly missing at her two latest outings. Where she gets to from barrier three is a concern, as she could be buried away on the fence with no room to move. Her form at Flemington is plain, and she has never been beyond 1400m, so there are lots of question marks surrounding her. She’s running well enough to go close at an each-way price – she just needs to see out a mile.

11 – Chaillot (4)

Archie Alexander saddles up the forgotten horse in the race, coming into this third up after a 73-week injury setback. Her first-up win was enormous after she missed the kick and still did enough to win, and she charged late at her latest effort when third. She’ll be back in the run from the gate, but the mile at Flemington should suit her down to the ground. She has definite each-way claims.

12 – Odeum (7)

The Thousand Guineas winner looks a great chance with just 49kg on her back after two dominant wins on the trot. Jye McNeil takes the ride for the first time and should get her into a nice spot just off the speed to be strong late. She will get the mile no worries and drops 6.5kg off her last run. She is a deserving favourite, in our opinion.

13 – Chica Fuerte (13)

Chica Fuerte comes off a strong win in the Ethereal Stakes last start but finds herself back in trip from 2000m to 1600m, which is some concern. She’ll bowl along in front under the featherweight and has to be considered. Don’t leave her out of your multiples, but we are looking elsewhere for win bets.

14 – Forbidden Love (14)

Here’s another three-year-old filly who comes off a good enough win at Randwick last start. She was too good at Canterbury first up this prep and then ran third to Dame Giselle and Wild Ruler in her next two outings, but she found enough to win last time out. That form has to be respected, but she’s never been past 1400m and has to overcome the outside alley. Dean Yendall will go forward on the filly, but we just don’t think she’ll have enough in the tank to win over a mile in this grade.

2020 Empire Rose Stakes betting tips

It’s a cracking race to kickstart the quartet of Group 1 races on Derby Day, with plenty of value all across the board. We are siding with the favourite, Odeum, as she should get the run of the race and has no weight on her back. Pretty Brazen goes in for second, as she should get a nice enough run in transit and has been thereabouts all prep. Mystic Journey and Chaillot look the other two.

$100 Betting Strategy
$50 win: Odeum
$25 each way: Pretty Brazen

[rmOC_events_list event_ids=1352412_05]

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