Eagle Farm betting tips & quaddie picks | Saturday, December 18
| What | Lough Neagh Stakes Day 2021 |
| Where | Eagle Farm Racecourse – 230 Lancaster Rd, Ascot QLD 4007 |
| When | Saturday, December 17, 2021 |
| First Race | 12:48pm AEST |
| Watch Live | |
HorseBetting’s Queensland form analyst has taken a look at all nine races at Eagle Farm this Saturday and brings you his best bets and quaddie numbers for the afternoon. One Group 3 race and two Listed races will be run and won throughout the course of the afternoon, on a Good 4 track with the rail out 5m for the entire course. The field for the first race of the day is set to face the starter at 12:48pm AEST.
Race 1: Colts, Geldings & Entires No Metro Wins Handicap (1200m)
We kick things off with a small, yet competitive No Metro Wins Handicap for the boys over 1200m. There are only seven runners in it, but they have come from across the state to take their place, making it an intriguing betting race. Rockhampton trainer Nick Walsh sends south two runners on Saturday, with the first of those being five-year-old gelding Villa Villekulla. The son of Kuroshio has only been in Walsh’s stable for two starts now, running agonisingly close first-up, before proving too good on November 18 at Rockhampton over 1200m. Drawn in the middle of the line in gate five, Ron Stewart should be able to find cover in the second half of the field and allow his fit horse the opportunity to finish strongly over the top. He gets in pretty well with 56.5kg, so we can see him proving too classy.
Selections: 4-3-9-6
Race 2: Fillies & Mares No Metro Wins Handicap (1200m)
The boys had their chance to win their first metropolitan race in the opener and now the fillies and mares have their opportunity. While we have plenty of respect for the race favourite Motomiss who is chasing four consecutive wins, we doubt there would be many horses in Tony Gollan’s stable who are without a metro win, so we sense that Purroni would have been targeted towards this race. The five-year-old came very close to winning one at Ipswich in June when second to At Witz End, before finishing four lengths in a competitive race at Doomben behind She Can Sing and Dis Dah Wun. Gollan has given this mare two trials to lead into her first-up run, one of which she finished just over two lengths behind Goodonya Sonja and Isotope. She can finish over the top of them under Ben Thompson.
Selections: 5-2-3-1
Race 3: Class 3 Plate (1400m)
A couple of handy gallopers line up in the third, with none smarter than Les Kelly’s Tamilaide. The four-year-old won the Grafton Guineas in a romp over the winter months and then finished a narrow second at Doomben in a very competitive Three-Year-Old Handicap. The son of Cox Plate winner Adelaide resumed with a fast-finishing third at Ipswich behind quality galloper Palaisipan in a Benchmark 80 over 1200m, so he should relish the drop in class and rise in trip. Drawn well in alley number two under Samantha Collett, Tamilaide should get all of the favours behind the likes of Awesome Rock, Bad Barista and Cold Hard Fact, which will allow him to gather them up in the straight. He is a quality gelding going places and looks extremely hard to beat in this.
Selections: 2-9-3-4
Race 4: Open Quality Handicap (2200m)
The stayers get their chance in this Open Quality over 2200m, but again, it is only a small field of seven. Wapiti has opened up the short $2.25 favorite, but he has since got out to $2.60, despite the lack of support for any other runner. One horse who has remained steady in the market is Roma Cup winner, Tears Of Love. The Matt Kropp-trained gelding has a good record at this track, with a win and two placings from seven starts, with the win coming over one of Queensland’s most promising stayers, London Banker. Like Tamilaide, Tears Of Love has drawn barrier two under Sammy Collett, however we expect this five-year-old to take up the running and look to control the race from in front. He was food last time out at Doomben over 2000m when fourth to So You Win, so provided he can make this more of a staying test, he should be able to fend off the challenges.
Selections: 3-1-2-5
Race 5: Group 3 Grand Prix Stakes (2100m)
The sole Group 3 event on the program comes up in the fifth, and so too does the shortest-priced favourite of the day. David Vandyke’s undefeated three-year-old filly Gypsy Goddess will be looking to make it four wins from four starts in her first start in black-type, and everything she has done so far in her career suggests she can. The daughter of Victoria Derby winner Tarzino was dominant when running away from her rivals in the Eagle Way (2000m) at Doomben on December 4 and looks perfectly suited to the 2200m of this event. Drawn the inside alley under Stephanie Thornton, Gypsy Goddess can take closer order in the small field of seven where there is not really a natural leader outside Caboche. Provided this short-priced favourite handles the Eagle Farm surface, she should be winning again.
Selections: 5-1-4-3
Race 6: Benchmark 85 (1000m)
While Gypsy Goddess looks for four wins on the trot, ex-North Queensland galloper I Did It Again is aiming for seven wins in and row and nine from his last 11. Now with Sunshine Coast trainer Darryl Hansen, this son of Nicconi made the Mackay and Townsville racetracks his own over the past 18 months, showing his sheer speed and tenacity to lead throughout in his races and hold off any late challengers, and a recent trial win at the Sunshine Coast suggests he hasn’t lost any of those qualities. Drawn barrier one for senior rider Jim Byrne, the seven-year-old will have the speed to burn early and use his inside gate to gain an early advantage. He is a three-times winner when fresh and does his best work over this short sprint trip. Although 59kg seems a big ask when he has to concede 5kg to competitive Rockhampton sprinter Aleysa’s Dream, he is used to carrying big weights in his races, so we are happy to back him in here.
Selections: 3-6-2-8
Race 7: Listed Gold Edition Plate (1200m)
The first of the Listed races is the Gold Edition Plate for three-year-olds as they head towards the Magic Millions 3YO Guineas on January 15. This race has been won by Zoustyle, Alligator Blood and Isotope over the past three years, and while this year’s edition may not have the same amount of quality in it, we are confident that there is a smart one in this bunch. Far Too Easy has won four of his five career starts, including a brilliant win at Doomben last time out over this distance under Brad Stewart. Micheal Hellyer takes over for the suspended Stewart and looks to get every chance to score aboard the son of All Too Hard from gate four. Now third-up, Far Too Easy should be nearing peak fitness, with this 1200m run likely to tick him over nicely ahead of next month’s $2 million feature. He looks extremely hard to beat again.
Selections: 2-4-1-3
Race 8: Listed Lough Neagh Stakes (1400m)
The feature race of the afternoon is the Listed Lough Neagh Stakes over 1400m, where we see Group 1-winner Alligator Blood attempt to return to some old form. Eight-year-old gelding Countofmontecristo comes through The Hunter at Newcastle, a race won by Lost And Running, and that has proved to be a solid form reference since, with the likes of Special Reward coming out and winning, while Signore Fox, Stockman and Gem Song have all run well. The Kris Lees-trained gelding will get back in the run, but we are hoping from barrier three that Andrew Mallyon can settle a touch closer than usual in a race which lacks speed. If he can bring his best form to this, he is good enough to run a huge race at big odds. Tumbler Ridge has been impressive in both of his runs this time in, while Stampe could be the one to control the race from in front and prove hard to catch.
Selections: 2-10-8-3
Race 9: Benchmark 72 (1600m)
We round out the day with a Benchmark 72 over the mile and it is a pretty tough way to finish. The three at the bottom of the page are the runners who the market fancy and they’re who we think will fight it out. Tony Gollan and Ben Thompson combine once again from barrier 10 with bottom weight Lethal Warning, who should relish getting out to the mile second-up, after a fast-finishing fourth at the Sunshine Coast last time out. The daughter of Melbourne Cup placegetter Lucas Cranach won at this track on debut on June 30, before charging into fourth behind Victoria Park at her next start. Gollan gave the four-year-old mare one more run in her first campaign, where she once again closed off well behind the then-in-form mare Eelloh over 2060m at Doomben. Lethal Warning drops 5kg from her first-up run down to 54kg, and although she has to overcome the carpark draw, she will get back anyway, so she can stay out of trouble from barrier 10. Dune Forty Five is the clear danger, with the talented four-year-old just needing to improve of his second-up flop.
Selections: 10-9-8-5
Eagle Farm quaddie tips for Villiers Stakes Day
| Eagle Farm quadrella selections | |
|---|---|
| Leg 1: | 2-3-6-8 |
| Leg 2: | 2-4 |
| Leg 3: | 2-3-8-10 |
| Leg 4: | 8-9-10 |
| Investment: | $96 for 100% |