Does the favourite in Melbourne Cup always win?

“The favourite always wins…”

True or False?…
With the biggest televised race about to unfold at 3:00pm AEST on the first Tuesday in November, spectators will be working out how to tip the winner of the Melbourne Cup 2024.

However does the favourite always win?

Statistics have shown out of 163 Melbourne Cups there has only ever been 34 winners come from the favourite with Fiorente being the last winner in 2013 priced at $7.00 to win. Phar Lap is currently sitting as the shortest priced favourite to win sitting at -137.49 in 1901.

So far the stats are far worse for the horses who are priced in the triple figures. With only four horses out of 161 races to have claimed victory when being priced at $100 or more to win. The last time being Prince Of Penzance which was $100 to win, ridden by the Michelle Payne who was also the first female jockey ever to win the Melbourne Cup.

The Melbourne Cup favourites strike rate currently sits at 20.86% for favourites who have claimed victory in the prestigious Melbourne Cup and a tiny 2.45% of times for a horse paying $100 or above.

Looking at the previous Melbourne Cup stats horsebetting.com.au suggest a deeper dive into who to back and looking at a few different tips that will give you a greater leg in the race that stops the nation rather than just blindly backing the favourite in the race.

Bet on the 2024 Melbourne cup

2024 Melbourne Cup Final Field

1. Vauban (11)

• T: Willie Mullins
• J: William Buick
• W: 55.5kg
• F: 21342
• Age: 7YO
• Colour: Chestnut
• Sex: Gelding
• Sire: Galiway (GB)
• Dam: Waldfest (GB)

+500
+125

2. Buckaroo (21)

• T: Chris Waller
• J: Joao Moreira
• W: 54.5kg
• F: 22118
• Age: 6YO
• Colour: Bay
• Sex: Gelding
• Sire: Fastnet Rock
• Dam: Roheryn (IRE)

+400
+100

3. Circle Of Fire (24)

• T: Ciaron Maher
• J: Mark Zahra
• W: 54.5kg
• F: 098×1
• Age: 5YO
• Colour: Bay
• Sex: Horse
• Sire: Almanzor (FR)
• Dam: Fiery Sunset (GB)

+3300
+750

4. Warp Speed (3)

• T: Noboru Takagi
• J: Akira Sugawara
• W: 54.5kg
• F: 0x523
• Age: 5YO
• Colour: Bay
• Sex: Horse
• Sire: Drefong (USA)
• Dam: Deep Love (JPN)

+4000
+900

5. Kovalica (17)

• T: Chris Waller
• J: Damian Lane
• W: 53.5kg
• F: 6243x
• Age: 5YO
• Colour: Bay
• Sex: Gelding
• Sire: Ocean Park (NZ)
• Dam: Vitesse (NZ)

+2500
+600

6. Sharp ‘N’ Smart (15)

• T: Graeme & Deborah Rogerson
• J: Michael Dee
• W: 53.5kg
• F: 3020x
• Age: 5YO
• Colour: Bay
• Sex: Gelding
• Sire: Redwood (GB)
• Dam: Queen Margaret (NZ)

+7000
+1500

7. Just Fine (13)

• T: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott
• J: Jye McNeil
• W: 53kg
• F: 01050
• Age: 7YO
• Colour: Bay
• Sex: Gelding
• Sire: Sea The Stars (IRE)
• Dam: Bint Almatar (USA)

+3300
+750

8. Land Legend (18)

• T: Chris Waller
• J: Zac Purton
• W: 53kg
• F: 3160x
• Age: 5YO
• Colour: Chestnut
• Sex: Gelding
• Sire: Galileo (IRE)
• Dam: Landikusic (IRE)

+2000
+500

9. Absurde (7)

• T: Willie Mullins
• J: Kerrin McEvoy
• W: 52.5kg
• F: x14x1
• Age: 7YO
• Colour: Bay
• Sex: Gelding
• Sire: Fastnet Rock
• Dam: Incroyable (USA)

+1000
+250

10. Athabascan (2)

• T: John O’Shea & Tom Charlton
• J: Zac Lloyd
• W: 52kg
• F: 1008x
• Age: 6YO
• Colour: Bay
• Sex: Gelding
• Sire: Almanzor (FR)
• Dam: Alzubra (GB)

+4000
+900

11. Knight’s Choice (6)

• T: John Symons & Sheila Laxon
• J: Robbie Dolan
• W: 51.5kg
• F: 5009x
• Age: 5YO
• Colour: Bay
• Sex: Gelding
• Sire: Extreme Choice
• Dam: Midnight Pearl

+15000
+3300

12. Okita Soushi (10)

• T: Ciaron Maher
• J: Jamie Kah
• W: 51kg
• F: 1208x
• Age: 7YO
• Colour: Bay
• Sex: Horse
• Sire: Galileo (IRE)
• Dam: Amicus

+1600
+400

13. Onesmoothoperator (12)

• T: Brian Ellison
• J: Craig Williams
• W: 51kg
• F: 1471x
• Age: 7YO
• Colour: Bay
• Sex: Gelding
• Sire: Dialed In (USA)
• Dam: Sueno D’Oro (USA)

+700
+180

14. Zardozi (4)

• T: James Cummings
• J: Andrea Atzeni
• W: 51kg
• F: 54256
• Age: 4YO
• Colour: Bay
• Sex: Mare
• Sire: Kingman (GB)
• Dam: Chanderi (GB)

+1300
+320

15. Sea King (1)

• T: Harry Eustace
• J: Hollie Doyle
• W: 50.5kg
• F: 1×631
• Age: 6YO
• Colour: Brown
• Sex: Gelding
• Sire: Sea The Stars (IRE)
• Dam: Pamona (IRE)

+850
+210

16. Valiant King (22)

• T: Chris Waller
• J: Craig Newitt
• W: 50.5kg
• F: 906×6
• Age: 5YO
• Colour: Grey
• Sex: Gelding
• Sire: Roaring Lion (USA)
• Dam: Assembly (USA)

+6000
+1300

17. Fancy Man (19)

• T: Annabel Neasham & Rob Archibald
• J: Ron Stewart
• W: 50kg
• F: 635×0
• Age: 7YO
• Colour: Bay
• Sex: Gelding
• Sire: Pride of Dubai
• Dam: Fancy (IRE)

+10000
+2000

18. Interpretation (14)

• T: Ciaron Maher
• J: Teo Nugent
• W: 50kg
• F: 26800
• Age: 7YO
• Colour: Brown
• Sex: Gelding
• Sire: Galileo (IRE)
• Dam: Daldiyna (FR)

+1800
+450

19. Manzoice (8)

• T: Chris Waller
• J: Declan Bates
• W: 50kg
• F: 7032x
• Age: 5YO
• Colour: Bay
• Sex: Gelding
• Sire: Almanzor (FR)
• Dam: Choice (NZ)

+8000
+1800

20. Mostly Cloudy (16)

• T: Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young
• J: Karis Teetan
• W: 50kg
• F: 044×2
• Age: 6YO
• Colour: Bay
• Sex: Gelding
• Sire: Harzand (IRE)
• Dam: Clarinda (FR)

+10000
+2000

21. Positivity (20)

• T: Andrew Forsman
• J: Winona Costin
• W: 50kg
• F: 8712x
• Age: 4YO
• Colour: Bay
• Sex: Mare
• Sire: Almanzor (FR)
• Dam: Pussy O’Reilly (NZ)

+10000
+2000

22. Saint George (9)

• T: Ciaron Maher
• J: Tyler Schiller
• W: 50kg
• F: 5948x
• Age: 5YO
• Colour: Grey
• Sex: Horse
• Sire: Roaring Lion (USA)
• Dam: Lady Dragon (IRE)

+3300
+750

23. The Map (23)

• T: Dan Clarken & Oopy MacGillivray
• J: Rachel King
• W: 50kg
• F: 6509x
• Age: 6YO
• Colour: Bay
• Sex: Mare
• Sire: Alpine Eagle
• Dam: This Moment

+2500
+600

24. Trust In You (5)

• T: Bruce Wallace & Grant Cooksley
• J: Mark Du Plessis
• W: 50kg
• F: 44036
• Age: 6YO
• Colour: Brown
• Sex: Gelding
• Sire: Sweynesse
• Dam: Shinko Bay (NZ)

+15000
+3300

Melbourne Cup Runner-by-Runner betting guide & racing tips

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