Caulfield Cup 2020 runner-by-runner betting guide

Mer De Glace

What Group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m)
Where Caulfield Racecourse – Gate 22 Station St, Caulfield East VIC 3145
When Saturday, October 17, 2020
Race Start 5:15pm AEDT

2020 Caulfield Cup betting preview

The Group 1 Stella Artois Caulfield Cup over 2400m is the feature race of the day in Melbourne, if not in the country, this Saturday. Running for $5,000,000, a full field of 18 (plus emergencies) has been assembled for the great race. In what should be a cracking edition, we get the first look at some of the internationals sent out here as they head towards the Melbourne Cup. Verry Elleegant and Anthony Van Dyck share favouritism ahead of Master Of Wine, Toffee Tongue, Finche and Buckhurst.

Caulfield Cup speed map

It is a tricky race to work out in terms of where they map, but we imagine Anthony Van Dyck and Vow And Declare will come over from the wide barriers. Finche and Oceanex shouldn’t be too far off the pace either. Verry Elleegant will be midfield, while we imagine Avilius, Warning and Buckhurst will sit in the back half.

1 – Anthony Van Dyck (21) 58.5kg

The Aidan O’Brien trained son of Galileo comes out as one of the highest ever rated gallopers to come to Australian for the Spring Carnival, so he must be respected at the top of the market. He has drawn barrier 21 which makes it hard for Bowman, but we expect to see them cross and lead the field. He has a win over Stradivarius which is no mean feat and is an Epsom Derby winner which is terrific form for this. One concern is that he hasn’t performed as well when he’s been on the road, running 10th at Ascot, 3rd in the Breeder’s Cup at Santa Anita and 12th in the Hong Kong Vase at Sha Tin. His best can win it.

2 – Avilius (17) 57kg

Avilius was also an acceptor in the Craven Plate in Sydney, but they decided to start here instead and we think it’s the right move. He is a winner of the Tancred at Group 1 level over 2400m and does his best racing when he gets over a trip. There is rain around Melbourne leading up to the Caulfield Cup which will suit him even more, and with his wide alley, he’ll be able to settle in the back half, three-wide with cover which should suit him to run on strongly. He has been crying out for a trip which he gets here. Each-way claims.

3 – Vow And Declare (18) 57kg

The Melbourne Cup winner has failed to find form since November last year, with his best performance since being an Australian Cup placing. He has drawn poorly and will have to work early to cross and give a forward showing, and does look poorly weighted given his rating. If he does get over and they go slow, he can be right there at the end, but we think he’ll find this too hard.

4 – Buckhurst (9) 55kg

Joseph O’Brien and Ben Melham combine with five-year-old entire, Buckhurst in a bid to win their first Caulfield Cup. The horse has some good form around Tiger Moth, Magical and has a win over Sir Dragonet in the Alleged Stakes at The Curragh back in June. He maps to settle midfield and is well off at the weights, but we aren’t fully convinced that he is a Group 1 mile and a half type.

5 – Mirage Dancer (6) 55kg

Placed in this race last year behind Mer De Glace and comes off a brilliant win in the Metropolitan in Sydney a fortnight ago. 2400m is a huge plus, but the rain around is a huge negative, given he has zero wins from eight starts on rain affected tracks. Drawn well and will be hitting the line strong, but we can’t have him.

6 – Mustajeer (15) 55kg

Eight-year-old import who has now been here for 12 months and only managed one win. His form this campaign has been plain at best and he has drawn poorly in barrier 15. Billy Egan will need to produce a career PB to get this horse home. The wet track will be a positive. Not for us.

7 – Verry Elleegant (11) 55kg

The last start Turnbull Stakes winner for Chris Waller, Verry Elleegant comes into this as equal favourite and has been dubbed the best of the locals. She has drawn well in barrier 11 to settle midfield with cover and she’ll be making a strong bid late. The wetter the better for the five-year-old mare here. She can win it.

8 – Dashing Willoughby (2) 54.5kg

Another international who has been bought by Criterion’s owner, Sir Owen Glen. By the same sire as Enable, Nathaniel, and out of a Dylan Thomas mare, he is bred to be the perfect stayer and has an imposing record with four wins and three placings from 14 career starts. He draws to do no work from barrier 2 and should get every chance in the straight. He can win, but we think he’ll be better suited in the Melbourne Cup and will just need the run here.

9 – Finche (12) 54.5kg

Chris Waller also saddles up Finche in this race who comes off two thirds in the Chelmsford and the Turnbull in preparation for this. Last years’ Caulfield Cup winning jockey, Damien Lane takes the ride, and they have drawn well in 12 to cruise over and settle in the first four or five. He placed fifth in this race last year and looks to be going just as well as he was 12 months ago, so there is no reason why he can’t repeat a similar effort this time out.

10 – Prince Of Arran (19) 54.5kg

Prince Of Arran has become a bit of the people’s horse when he comes out to Australia, given he has placed in two Melbourne Cups. Michael Walker has given up the ride to stay loyal to Sir Owen Glen, so in-form hoop Jamie Kah takes over the reigns and will partner the eight-year-old both here and on the first Tuesday in November. They’ll have to be lucky to win from out in barrier 19, but the horse looks a picture of health at Werribee and has never missed the place in Australia. A place won’t surprise us at all.

11 – Master Of Wine (7) 53.5kg

Master Of Wine has been set for this race for a long time and he is in the hands of grand final trainers M, W & J Hawkes. Of the main chances, he is the big winner from the barrier draw, jumping from gate 7 which will allow him to find a spot, get cover and into a rhythm which will allow him to be strong late. He steps up to 2400m which will suit him down to the ground, and any rain is a big plus. Craig Williams is in terrific form and is a genius when it comes to these big races, so he looks a great chance.

12 – The Chosen One (3) 53.5kg

Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman saddle up The Chosen One here after a fair effort in what looked like a barrier trial in the Herbert Power just seven days ago. He has drawn very well for his style of racing which will see him just behind the speed, but we expect him to be outclassed in this.

13 – Warning (20) 53kg

Warning was absolutely super in the Turnbull, running home in the quickest sectionals to run sixth. He now gets to a trip that will suit and he drops to 53kg which will be of great benefit. Luke Currie will need to make the best of a bad draw to be a winning chance, but we do expect him to be storming home late from the back and be gearing up for a Melbourne Cup tilt. If the speed is on, he is a great winning chance.

14 – Dalasan (14) 52.5kg

Was unlucky to miss the place in the Turnbull Stakes last start when fourth, and prior to that he ran very well in the Makybe Diva Stakes after failing as a short priced favourite at Morphettville. He has a second to Russian Camelot in the South Australian Derby back in May, beating home Warning and has drawn to come over and be in the first half of the field under William Pike who could ride a broomstick to victory lately. He needs to find another gear, but we won’t be surprised if he does here.

15 – True Self (4) 52kg

One of three mares in the final field and the sole international mare to come out here, Willie Mullins saddles up True Self in the race. She was well-backed in the Geelong Cup last year and couldn’t quite get past Prince Of Arran, before carrying the hops of a nation in the Queen Elizabeth on Stakes Day last year to win by 1.5L under Ryan Moore over 2600m. She was plain in the Ebor at her latest, but if she brings her best form and gets sting out of the ground, she’s an each way chance.

17 – Toffee Tongue (5) 51kg

Australasian Oaks winner Toffee Tongue comes into this after a 0.1L defeat in the Turnbull Stakes. She gets no weight and is drawn very well in barrier 5 to get every chance under Michael Dee. Up to 2400m is going to suit her big time, but she has only one win to her name which has us doubting her winning credentials. She’s a place chance at best for us.

18 – Chapada (16) 50.5kg

The last start Herbert Power winner gains a start and will be an even chance in this. He has drawn poorly out in barrier 16, but with the feather weight under Jye McNeil, the bad barrier can be compensated. His best form is at this trip, but he looks better suited in weaker class.

19 – Raheen House (22) 53.5kg

Kris Lees saddles up Raheen House, who gains a start now that Aktau has come out, but he will struggle from the carpark draw. He has been racing in poor form this prep, finishing down the track in the Wyong Cup at his latest start which isn’t good enough. Third in the Sydney Cup back in the Autumn could see him figure, but he can win without us.

Caulfield Cup emergencies

20EM – San Huberto (10) 53.5kg
Import who has been thereabouts its last couple in France but looks better suited at 3200m and beyond.

21EM – Oceanex (8) 51.5kg
She was the first horse passed the ballot in this year’s Melbourne Cup and that’s her target race, but she’d needed to start yesterday to be any chance in either race. No chance.

22EM – Le Don De Vie (13) 52.5kg
Fourth emergency who will need a miracle to get a start in the field but does bring over some solid English form and in a good stable. Likely to start in the Geelong Cup next Wednesday and will take some beating there.

Caulfield Cup betting tips

We are siding with Master Of Wine in this year’s Caulfield Cup. He attacked the line strongly in the Turnbull Stakes and has been set to peak here. Verry Elleegant goes in next after a tough win in the Turnbull and should be favoured by the softer tracks. Anthony Van Dyck is the pick of the internationals, while we will be keeping a big watch on Warning as he heads towards the Melbourne Cup.

Caulfield Cup betting strategy
$50 each way: Master Of Wine
Notify of
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments