Big Dance betting preview, best bets & odds | Randwick | 1/11/22

October 30, 2022 5:02 am.

What	2022 Big Dance
Where	Royal Randwick Racecourse, Alison Rd, Randwick NSW 2031
When	Tuesday, November 1, 2022
Prizemoney	$2,000,000
Distance	1600m
Status	Quality
Conditions	Three-Years-Old and Upwards
2021 Winner	N/A
Visit Ladbrokes

For the first time ever, we have a feature race on the first Tuesday of November in NSW with the inaugural Big Dance. Scheduled to be run 40 minutes prior to the Melbourne Cup, the Big Dance seems to be Racing NSW answer to the race that stops the nation. A field made up entirely of Country Cup winners or second placegetters, this contest over the 1600m is worth $2,000,000 in prizemoney, with trainers and owners from all over regional NSW looking to be crowned the first champion of this brand-new fixture on the racing calendar.

We have a capacity field of 20 runners accepted here, with four emergency runners listed for any late scratching’s come Tuesday afternoon. The track is in Soft 6 condition as well, with only moderate rain forecast prior to race-day, we should be somewhere in the soft range come start time 2:20pm AEDT.

We’ve got a wide-open market, but currently Hosier holds favouritism with the top online bookmakers at $4.80, while Surf Dancer ($5.50) and Bandersnatch ($9) or the only other runners under double figures.

There’s plenty of speed on offer here, with Hosier likely to press forward from the carpark barrier draw (20), Surf Dancer won’t be giving the lead up easy either from a perfect gate (5). We could see some early speed from a few runners at big prices as well, with Cognac and Regal Stage looking to be prominent in the run as well. So, we could easily see some backmarkers emerge late here, with the likes of Bandersnatch and Casino Kid to settle towards the rear.

Continue reading for HorseBetting’s 2022 Big Dance tips, preview and $100 betting strategy

Casino Kid looks set up perfectly here for his grand-final after winning his way to the Big Dance two-starts back in the Dubbo Cup on September 11. He was impressive that day winning well by 1.3 lengths, before heading to Randwick for his final preparation run just getting beaten 1.8 lengths by race rival Hosier on October 1. He gets a substantial swing in the weights after that performance at BM88 level dropping from 56.5kg down to 52kg, while Hosier only drops 2kgs from that same race. The market discrepancy between them just seems wrong, and at $11 with Neds, double the price of the market favourite, Casino Kid looks a great bet. He’ll get the perfect run from barrier six, as well as Dubbo Cup winning jockey Grant Buckley set to take the ride, he’s got to be a bet in this race for us.

Five Diamonds Prelude runner-up Sibaaq looks to peaking third-up up here, after sticking on gamely behind Group 1 winner Ellsberg in that race on October 15, being beaten 2.5 lengths, Sibaaq looked as though he was going to fade out of the race in the closing stages before pulling out the reserves to fight back into second. Trainer Anabel Neasham seems to have picked this race out for this gelding by Dark Angel a long way out, after securing his place in this field winning the Wellington Cup last preparation on June 3. After two strong runs with plenty of merit this preparation, the double figure odds here seem a touch overs, and with a box seat barrier, Chad Schofield should get every chance to go one better this time on Sibaaq.

Bandersnatch is one you must consider as well, but from the horrible barrier, and the likelihood of being cast wide, he’s just been pushed down the numbers. Hosier is a very similar story, with the wide draw and quick tempo likely early in the race we can seem him fading late in the piece. We suggest going wide for multiple players.