Australian Guineas runner-by-runner betting preview | Flemington

Zou Dancer

What Australian Guineas
Where Flemington Racecourse – 448 Epsom Rd, Flemington VIC 3031
When Saturday, February 27, 2021 | 4:05pm AEDT | Race 7
Prizemoney $1,000,000
Distance 1600m
Status Group 1
Race Conditions Set weights; 3YO+
2020 Winner Alligator Blood – 56.5kg (2) | Jockey: Ryan Maloney | Trainer: David Vandyke

Full Flemington racing preview and tips

2021 Australian Guineas betting tips & from guide – February 27

The Group 1 Australian Guineas is the featured event on Flemington’s nine-race card this Saturday afternoon. The $1,000,000 mile race often attracts a big field of three-year-olds, and this year is no exception. With a majority of runners coming through the CS Hayes Stakes, they will need to overturn a one-length defeat to Tagaloa. The 2021 Australian Guineas field is set to face the starter at 4:05pm, and we have gone through all 17 accepted runners.

#1 Ole Kirk (15)

On the quick seven-day backup from running eighth in the Futurity Stakes, Ole Kirk drops back to his own age level and out of weight-for-age company. The run in the Futurity looks to be a complete forgive, as he never really settled in the running. His run two starts back at Randwick on February 6 when first up saw him put in the best last 800m of the card when giving the leaders nearly seven lengths from the start. You would think with a turn of foot like that he will be hard to hold out over the concluding stages, so look for Ole Kirk to hit the line strongly with Kerrin McEvoy retaining the ride for Team Hawkes.

#2 Tagaloa (10)

Tagaloa, the colt from the Busuttin & Young team, was an impressive victor in the CS Hayes Stakes after looking vulnerable for the taking halfway down the Flemington straight. Expect him to be up on speed from barrier 10 under Luke Currie. If he can find a bit of cover early on in the piece, he looks to be a key chance in the race. This will be just his second crack at the mile, so it remains to be seen if he can see out the distance, but he should be fighting out the finish thanks to the 2.5kg drop in weight off his last-start win.

#3 Aysar (2)

Damien Lane will take the ride on Aysar, who was the best of the beaten brigade in the CS Hayes Stakes when beaten a length by Tagaloa but goes up in the weights for this one. The Dabernig & Hayes prospect is as honest as they come, running in the money in all but one of his career starts, but has struggled to finish in front of his rivals in recent times. He has four consecutive runner-up performances to his name, although he did manage to beat home Tagaloa two runs back in the Manfred Stakes at Caulfield. He is a must for all exotics but will need a bit of luck from barrier two to be a winning chance.

#4 Cherry Tortoni (17)

The Patrick Payne-trained Cherry Tortoni looks to be the best roughie in the race, as he only gets better over further and steps up to the 1600m for the first time this campaign. We know he will stay all day and may find this a touch sharp, but if he gets a genuine tempo from the front runners, it should suit his get-back-and-run-on style to a tee. Having already won over the Flemington mile, expect Billy Egan to have him savaging the line late on.

#5 Dom To Shoot (7)

Dom To Shoot had a bit of the unknown about him in the CS Hayes Stakes, but a respectable fifth-place finish suggests he has a bit of class about him. The Western Australia-based galloper was a well-held third in the Kingston Town Classic at Ascot in the summer, and a win here certainly would not surprise with William Pike on board, but he will need to overturn a 3.5-length defeat with a 1kg rise in weight.

#6 Lunar Fox (6)

Having been beaten by a combined 30 lengths in his past three starts, the $151 on offer looks to be a fair price. This doesn’t look to be Michael Dee and Lunar Fox’s race.

#7 Grandslam (16)

Many expected Grandslam to head to the front in the CS Hayes Stakes, but Ethan Brown was quick to jag the Maher & Eustace-trained colt to the second half of the field. John Allen hops back on board, and that combination went to the front in the spring and proved hard to run down. Having not won since his maiden victory in Adelaide, it is hard to entertain him as a winning thought. Expect the backmarkers to swamp him in the straight.

#8 Poland (1)

Coming off an impressive win in the Caulfield Stakes three weeks back, the Mike Moroney-trained Poland will need a fair bit of luck to go his way. He does his best work when racing up on speed, so the rails draw in the big field is far from ideal. If Craig Williams can boot him up to lead, he may take some catching; however, if his only start at the mile in the Caulfield Guineas is anything to go by, we are looking elsewhere.

#9 Beltoro (3)

Another one to come out of the CS Hayes Stakes who needs to make up plenty of ground is Beltoro for the Robert Hickmott yard. Having finished 5.5 lengths off Tagaloa, the gelding needs a big form reversal if he is to figure in the Australian Guineas.

#10 Embolism (14)

Let’s be honest: it was an awful return by Embolism in the CS Hayes Stakes following a spring that showed plenty of promise. His first-up run this campaign saw him beaten by close to 12 lengths when displaying no abnormalities post race, which left a few scratching their heads. He has a nice turn of foot, but barrier 14 means he will need to sustain a long run with Damien Oliver on board. Following his last-start effort, he is one we are happy to watch go around.

#11 It’sourtime (12)

Since stepping up into city-class races following two smart wins to begin his career, It’sourtime has been far from disgraced. On the quick backup after chasing home the smart Oxley Road in the Zeditave Stakes, the Danny O’Brien-trained gelding dramatically rises in distance with Ben Allen on his back and will attack a race over 1200m for the first time in his career. This is one to watch going forward, just not in the Australian Guineas on Saturday. The $31 seems about right.

#12 Jet Propulsion (11)

The Maher & Eustace-trained Jet Propulsion looked to have been a touch unlucky when finishing fourth in the Autumn Stakes at Caulfield. Jye McNeil will be in the saddle for what is easily the toughest test the horse has encountered in his career to date. Hard to entertain at $26.

#13 Cambourne (9)

Mick Price ‘s Cambourne has shown plenty of promise but hasn’t graced the winner’s stall since starting his career with two consecutive wins. He will give the leaders a fair start under Mark Zahra, as he tends to settle towards the rear of the field. Despite possessing a nice turn of foot, he will need to be at his absolute best to figure.

#14 Ironedge

Fresh off a maiden win at Ballarat on February 7, Ironedge jumps into the deep end to compete in a Group 1 at his next start. He has black-type experience, but the $51 on offer for the Mick Price galloper to take the win looks to be a touch of unders.

#15 Here To Shock (4)

Here To Shock and Luke Nolen look to be the leaders in this year’s Australian Guineas, but the colt will need to improve drastically if he is to be a winning chance on Saturday. He was headed at the 400m in the CS Hayes and folded up pretty quickly. Expect him to make it a solidly run 1600m, but this one falls into the also-rans.

#16 Zou Dancer (8)

Zou Dancer is the only filly in the field, but boy, does she look hard to beat based on her dominant win in The Vanity on February 13. She seems perfectly placed to take on the boys in the Australian Guineas and will take a power of catching with the in-form Jamie Kah on board. If she runs up to her form this campaign, Zou Dancer’s first attempt at a Group 1 race could be a winning one.




#17 Lofty Star (13)

If Beau Mertens and Lofty Star can get a start, expect his price of $151 to drift out even further.

Best bets for 2021 Australian Guineas

$100 Betting Strategy
$75 win: Zou Dancer
$25 boxed trifecta: 1-2-3-4-16

[rmOC_events_list event_ids=1362345_07]

Notify of
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments