Australian Cup and Newmarket Handicap form and free selections
FLEMINGTON hosts two major races this Saturday and we have form and free selections for the entire nine-race card.
The Group 1 Newmarket Handicap boasts an attractive field of sprinters and punters are climbing into the betting markers available.
The Group 1 Australian Cup is the feature race of the day and the $1.5 million staying race should excite the big crowd at Flemington.
It features the likes of Jameka, The United States and Humidor, which should make for a grand finish down the lengthy Flemington straight.
Get boosted odds on feature racing with Ladbrokes.com.au which offer betting markets on all Australian racing.
Race 1 – The Melbourne Cup Carnival R84 (1400m)
Cannyescent opened as the favourite and has stayed steady in the betting since. The Lindsay Park-trained gelding was a narrow winner at Ballarat last start, but that was only a preparation for what should be a competitive campaign. It showed its ability when finishing closely behind Chetwood at Canterbury and having Joao Moreira in the saddle helps.
Dusty Jack is in good form having won its last three starts. The five-year-old travelled wide last start, but still managed to run home well and score at Sandown. The son of Written Tycoon gets Damien Oliver in the saddle and it gives Lindsay Park another strong chance.
Battlecamp returned to form with a win last start and it has the ability to cause an upset. The four-year-old scored by 4.5 lengths at Sandown and it was nice to see it break through after a series of average efforts. We wouldn’t rule it out.
Race 1 tip: Cannyescent to win ($3.30) at Sportsbet.com.au
Race 2 – My Kitchen Rules Handicap (1800m)
Red Alto has done much wrong this campaign having won four of its last five starts. The Paul Banks-trained gelding rises up in grade which doesn’t usually suit and it’s racing at Flemington where it hasn’t placed in five career runs, but it has turned the corner and deserves a shot.
Hursley is the deserved favourite after getting nabbed on the line last start. The Chris Waller-trained gelding has yet to finish out of the money in three starts on this track and dropping down in weight to 54kg is ideal. $3.20 suggests another consistent run is on the cards.
Dodging Bullets went close in a similar race last start and it’s suited by the weight scale. The five-year-old finished only 1.2 lengths behind Post D’france at Flemington last month and it should go close with some luck from barrier 11.
Race 2 tip: Hursley to win ($3.20) at Ladbrokes.com.au
Race 3 – Incognitus 3YO Stakes (1100m)
Ken’s Dream returns for a new campaign. The Weir-trained colt won its first two starts including the McKenzie Stakes and it subsequent runs came against tough opposition. It ran second behind Benz at Moonee Valley before running fourth in the Blue Sapphire and it looks one of the better chances in this.
The unbeaten Matty should be tough to beat again. The three-year-old dug deep to score at Moonee Valley last start which showed the signs of a good horse. Its winning times might not be setting the track alight, but all it can do is win and it would take a brave punter to rule it out at $6.50.
Forgive the latest effort from Magnatti after it was forced to do plenty of work up front. The filly scored three straight wins to open its career prior to that and the bookmakers are offering up a good price. $14 for the win with Moreira in the saddle.
Race 3 tip: Magnatti to win (+1300) at Bet365.com
Race 4 – Mss Security Sires’ Produce Stakes (1400m)
Eshtiraak has looked a professional type when winning its last three starts. The Lindsay Park-trained colt scored a quality win at Sandown last start and it’s now been given a chance at the big time. The inside draw should work out well and it will likely start as the favourite.
Groundbreak has yet to win a race, but has attracted some support in the market. The Hawkes-trained colt finished second on debut at Rosehill behind Veranillo and it was running on nicely at Flemington last start. It might get the last shot at them and the $7.50 on offer is a handy price.
Aspect has disappointed in two starts since its win on debut, but it faces lesser opposition here. It was no match for Formality and then Catchy in the Blue Diamond, but there’s no superstars in this and it could find itself in the placings.
Race 4 tip: Eshtiraak to win ($3) at CrownBet.com.au
Race 5 – Kewney Stakes (1400m)
Ellicazoom went close at Caulfield last start and there’s no reason why it shouldn’t go close again. The filly trained out of Ascot has a good winning record and the slight drop in weight will aid its chances here. Currently on the second line of betting so follow any positive moves.
Kenedna has put together a nice race record of three wins from nine starts and it looked good on this track last start. The Weir-trained filly ran clear over the concluding stages in the Vanity Stakes and if it gets some luck from the wide barrier, it could figure in the finish.
I Am A Star is the class runner of the field and it didn’t get much to suit in the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate last start. Its form in the spring included a win in the Myer Classic which is great for this and with an unbeaten record on this track, it looks one of the better bets of the day.
Race 5 tip: I Am A Star to win (+150) at Sportsbet.com.au
Race 6 – Schweppervescence Marton Stakes (1600m)
Pure Pride drew the inside barrier last start and had no room in the straight, this time it’s drawn wide and should have plenty of time to warm up. The four-year-old has been consistent without winning all season and it’s long overdue a win. The $5.50 is a pair price from bookmakers.
Miss Rose de Lago is a nine-time winner which brings the class. The Danny O’Brien-trained mare has yet to perform at its best at Flemington, but it was running on nicely behind Silent Sedition in the Mannerism which should be good form. Chance if its find an easy lead.
Abbey Marie burst onto the scene by winning the Schweppes Oaks last campaign. The Michael Kent-trained mare hasn’t hit those heights in two runs since, but it was finishing off nicely last start and it has been looking for more ground. Gets it here so watch for it late.
Race 6 tip: Abbey Marie to win ($7) at Palmerbet.com.au
Race 7 – Lexus Newmarket Handicap (1200m)
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Extreme Choice was last seen flying home in the Oakleigh Plate and the extra 100m looks perfect for this. The three-year-old colt has plenty of class having won the Blue Diamond and the Moir Stakes, so we wouldn’t be ruling it out. The wide draw down the straight suits and it might force the current favourite Spieth to become pocketed. $5 on offer is a good price.
Spieth will get its group one win in short time, but this won’t be an easy race from the inside barrier. The Bryce Heys-trained star needs clear running and time to warm up, but it might find life tough from barrier one and we’re not prepared to take the $3.30 on offer. If the luck does come and a gap opens up, don’t be surprised to see Spieth flying between runners late.
Star Turn has enough speed to lead out the field and hold on for the win. The Hawkes-trained runner didn’t run to the best of its ability last start, but it likely needed the run and it gets in with only 52.5kg on its back. That helps and it should be in the thick of the action.
Race 7 tip: Extreme Choice to win (+400) at Ladbrokes.com.au
Race 8 – Australian Cup (2000m)
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Jameka hasn’t hit top gear this campaign, but the 2016 Caulfield Cup winner has class and should be respected. The Ciaron Maher-trained mare fought on well despite a wide run in the Peter Young Stakes and punters should consider its chances at a respectable price.
Humidor is closing in on its first Australian win and it could come here. The four-year-old is now trained by Darren Weir and it went very close behind Stratum Star in the Peter Young Stakes. It will get back from barrier seven and the lengthy Flemington straight plays right into its hands. Looks one of the better bets in this race.
Stratum Star can’t be left out based on its last three wins. The Weir-trained horse gets in well on weights considering it has won in three different states in the last three months. Punters know that it has the class on its side and a nice each way price is being offered.
Race 8 tip: Humidor to win ($4.20) at Sportsbet.com.au
Race 9 – James Boag’s Premium Handicap (1000m)
Shaf is fresh up after a disappointing campaign, but there’s confidence in the market. The Lindsay Park-trained gelding goes best when fresh up so that should give punters confidence and it’s a past winner down the Flemington straight.
Rocket Tommy has gathered support following its last start win on this track. The five-year-old is yet to face the class of this race, but it’s the form runner of the field and it could led them a merry chase again. Five wins have come at this distance so respect.
Runsati has been in consistent form all campaign and it’s a chance here with a similar effort. It gets the inside draw to work with and the light weight of 55kg makes it a winning chance.
Race 9 tip: Shaf to place ($2.35) at CrownBet.com.au