Always Welcome Stakes Runner-By-Runner Guide | Flemington Race 10

William Thomas
William Thomas will be out to claim another 1100m-sprint race at Caulfield.
What Always Welocome Stakes
Where Flemington Racecourse – Flemington VIC, 3031
When Melbourne Cup Day, Tuesday, November 3, 2020 | 5:15pm AEDT | Race 10
Prizemoney $175,000
Distance 1200m
Status Listed
Race Conditions Handicap, Minimum Weight 56kg
2019 Winner Tactical Advantage – 58kg (2) | Jockey: Damien Oliver | Trainer: Kris Lees

Always Welcome Stakes 20202 Horse Betting Preview

A sprint down the Flemington straight is how the blockbuster ten race card on Melbourne Cup day comes to an end, and with a wide open field there looks to be plenty of value to found with the market hovering at around $5 the field.

The MSS Security Sprint officially known as the Always Welcome Stakes is set to jump at 5:15pm.

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Always Welcome Stakes Runner-By-Runner Betting Guide

#1 Redouble (5)

The Mitchell Beer trained gelding looked to have been the winner in The Kosciuszko when railing like a greyhound but found one just that bit better on the line. He maps to take a sit off the leaders from barrier five and he gets back to Flemington for the first time in three and a half years. A slight query is his second up form, but if he can run to his form from The Kosciuszko, then he looks the value play in the last leg of the quaddie.

#2 William Thomas (15)

Damien Oliver hops back aboard the John Price gelding who has been racing in better form than what the numbers may suggest. His last start at The Valley was an eye catcher considering he is one who has to build through the gears to make an impact, and just found the tight turnings of The Valley a bit to his detriment. There looks to be no excuse this time around at Flemington, and from barrier 15 Oliver can settle him towards the back of the field and with this gelding’s turn of foot he could prove hard to hold out on the outside rail.

#3 Lord Von Costa (2)

Scratched.

#4 Intuition (3)

Kurt Goldman enlists the services of William Pike in the last, but seemingly that looks to be the only thing in his gelding’s favour in the MSS Security Sprint along with the fact he has won down the Flemington straight in the past. He is yet to win in over a year and a half and his first up run in The Kosciuszko was far from convincing. He has to make up three lengths on Redouble who we are quite keen on with the top weight, so we would rather see Intuition go around this time instead of backing him.

#5 Vainstream (9)

John Pascoe’s 6YO gelding was one of the first beaten in the Caulfield Sprint three weeks ago, and this looks to be another step too far. He has been at Flemington four times, and has yet to run a drum in any of those starts. His form last campaign showed that he has plenty of ability, but is yet to display that form in his first two runs this campaign.

#6 Exhilarates (11)

James Cummings opted to scratch his 4YO mare from the final race on Derby Day and has saved her for what looks a slightly easier race for her on Cup day. Her first up run at Caulfield in the Northwood Plume Stakes was quite plain, but her career has shown she genuinely comes along quite quickly for her second up runs, as she is yet to run outside of the quinella in four second up attempts. She maps to settle just off the speed and with a bit of luck in transit she will be fighting out the finish.

#7 Sirius Suspect (12)

Saab Hasan’s 6YO gelding is back after a 5 month spell and as a genuine track and distance specialist, he has genuine claims at a big price. He has won twice over 1200 metres down the Flemington straight and has six career wins at the distance to add to it too. The concern for him is he needs a run under his belt before he is a contender in races, as from four first up runs he is still a maiden.

#8 Holbein (17)

Steve Richards and VRC Derby winning jockey Lachie King combine with this 6YO gelding who is as tough as old boots. He was well beaten last time out in the opener on Cox Plate day where he chased home a couple of handy wet trackers. During his winter campaign he had strung together a couple of handy performances, but this is certainly one of the toughest races he has had to contend in quite sometime and looks to lack a touch of class for this field.

#9 Shamino (13)

Phillip Stokes would have wanted to see a bit more than what he got in the Caulfield Sprint from his 5YO gelding, but he was only able to manage a midfield finish. He gets to the race third up, which is where he usually puts his best foot forward. From three third up attempts he has gone on to win two occasions, and he looks a horse who should have no issue with the Flemington straight. The slight concern is where he gets to in the run, but his best efforts have him fighting out the finish.

#10 Chicago Cub (16)

The Mike Maroney trained 5YO gelding is a genuine track and distance specialist and returns to the 1200 metres at Flemington for the first time since February this year. He settled midfield at his last start at Caulfield and was cutting back the margin throughout the home straight and will appreciate getting back to Flemington. He draws barrier 16 so it will all come down to where he gets to in the run, but this looks to be a bit too tough for him.

#11 Excess Funds (6)

Levi Kavanagh’s galloper was able to beat home William Thomas and Chicago Cub last time out at Caulfield and looked to be travelling nicely when entering the home straight. He stays at the 1200 metres and gets back to Flemington where he has had success in the past. He won third up at Caulfield last preparation and is far from the worst engaged here and may be worth including him in your exotics.

#12 Algadon Miss (7)

Despite being well backed in the Black Pearl Stakes at Geelong a fortnight ago, on face value she was a touch disappointing finish just worse than midfield by nearly three and a half lengths. Her run three starts back where she peaked on her run late to only be beaten by a couple of handy types suggests she could be prominent in the finish. It is hard however to ignore her last two starts and on that note we suggest punters to look elsewhere.

#13 I Am Vinnie (10)

It is hard to get too enthused by the Feek trained gelding who last start failed to beat a runner home on the Pakenham Synthetic back in August and had been mixing his form in his last campaign. On his day he is a handy galloper, but he is far too inconsistent to suggest backing him or adding him into exotics.

#14 Neighbourhood (4)

Scratched.

#15 Yao Dash (4)

Based on his debut campaign, the Waterhouse and Bott trained 4YO gelding is a deserving favourite for the last race on Cup day. However his efforts in the back half of his three year old campaign was far from convincing when sent around as favourite in listed races at Randwick. He has returned at the trials in fine fashion when going on to win on both occasions under restraint from the jockey. If that version of Yao Dash turns up he will take some catching.

#16 One More Jack (8)

Seven wins from nine starts is nothing to look down upon, and the Shane Oxlade trained gelding comes to Flemington for the first time. He is near bombproof over 1200 metres, and with Dean Yendall on board from barrier eight he looks to be a key figure in the race. We concede this is his first crack at a listed race, but if he runs up to the form he has shown over the last 12 months he should be far too quick for this field in the final event on Cup day.

#17 The Astrologist (14)

If the Corstens’ 4YO gelding brings her form from her first up win at Geelong a fortnight ago to this race, he may just blow them away in the concluding stages. He has two wins from three attempts on good tracks and is yet to miss a place at either of his second up runs. Craig WIlliams retains the ride and rates quite highly despite drawing barrier 14, but the six and a half kilogram turnaround in the weights may prove beneficial.

Bet on the 2020 Melbourne cup

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$100 Betting Strategy
$50 win: One More Jack
$30 win: William Thomas
$10 Each Way: Redouble

flemington - Race 10

mss security sprint

Class: open lr

Track Rating: 3

5:15pm
  • Track Conditions: TBA

mss security sprint

1200m
1200m
Tuesday 5:15pm
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Best odds
jockey
Redouble
Michael Rodd 61.0
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jockey
William Thomas
Damien Oliver 60.5
5 Free bet at UniBet
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jockey
Lord Von Costa
Billy Egan 59.5
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jockey
Intuition
William Pike 58.0
34 Free bet at UniBet
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jockey
Vainstream
Noel Callow 57.5
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jockey
Exhilarates
Kerrin Mc Evoy 57.0
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jockey
Sirius Suspect
Brad Rawiller 56.0
20 Free bet at UniBet
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Holbien
Lachlan King 56.0
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Shamino
Jamie Kah 56.0
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jockey
10  Chicago Cub
Ben Melham 56.0
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11  Excess Funds
Damian Lane 56.0
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jockey
12  Algadon Miss
Luke Currie 56.0
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jockey
13  I Am Vinnie
Jacob Noonan 56.0
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jockey
14  Neighbourhood
Michael Dee 56.0
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15  Yao Dash
Michael Walker 56.0
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jockey
16  One More Jack
Dean Yendall 56.0
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17  The Astrologist
Craig Williams 56.0
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