2021 Black Caviar Lightning Stakes runner-by-runner betting guide


What Black Caviar Lightning Stakes
Where Flemington Racecourse – 448 Epsom Rd, Flemington VIC 3031
When Saturday, February 13, 2021 | 4:45pm AEDT | Race 8
Prizemoney $750,000
Distance 1000m
Status Group 1
Race Conditions Weight for age
2020 Winner Gytrash – 58.5kg (2) | Jockey: Mark Zahra | Trainer: Gordon Richards

2021 Black Caviar Lightning betting preview

Group 1 racing returns to Flemington for the first time in 2021 with the Group 1 Black Caviar Lightning Stakes headlining a blockbuster card on Saturday afternoon. Eight high-class runners have accepted for the $750,000 sprint over 1000m, with some 11 Group 1 victories in the field. Godolphin star and VRC Sprint Classic winner Bivouac leads the market at $2.70 ahead of Nature Strip ($4.20) and September Run ($5.50). The Black Caviar Lightning is the penultimate race on the card, jumping at 4:45pm AEDT.

#1 Nature Strip (2)

What does Nature Strip have in store for us first up in the Black Caviar Lightning Stakes? Without a doubt his best performance blows this field away, even Bivouac, but he comes in off a disappointing spring campaign and will need to overturn a 3.5 length runner-up performance to the favourite in the VRC Sprint Classic. He will almost certainly lead this field up, and he loves the Flemington straight, but when first up in this race last year he was a disappointing fourth behind Gytrash. Jamie Kah is on for the first time, but we are happy to let the superstar sprinter go around this time without our hard-earned on him. A win would certainly not surprise, however.

#2 Bivouac (6)

Every man and his dog has run out of superlatives to describe Bivouac’s win in the VRC Sprint Classic in the spring. Glen Boss loved it, we loved it, and the Godolphin gelding is our top pick in the Black Caviar Lightning Stakes on Saturday. Bivouac is yet to finish outside of the quinella at Flemington, and his trial behind Nature Strip showed he is back in fine form. Expect Bossy to take a sit off the leaders, and when the time comes and he asks for an effort, expect Bivouac to explode past Nature Strip and Pippie to bring up consecutive Group 1 victories down the Flemington straight.

#3 Elite Street (5)

Despite winning the Group 1 Winterbottom Stakes back on November 28, this looks a step too far for Elite Street. He did manage to beat Bivouac’s stablemate Trekking on that day quite convincingly, but he did so at a big price at his first crack at black-type racing. He has won six in a row, so he is no slouch, but the likes of Bivouac, September Run and Nature Strip will be the best sprinters he has ever come up against. There will be a race for him in the autumn somewhere, but he is hard to have here.

#4 Halvorsen (1)

The rank outsider of the field, Halvorsen looks to be severely outclassed in the Black Caviar Lightning Stakes. The De Kock & Griffiths gelding will share the same weight as Bivouac and Nature Strip but gives them a massive class edge. The $81 on offer looks to be unders.

#5 Pippie (4)

If Nature Strip was not in this race, we would happily snap up the $10 for Pippie on an each-way basis. They are two genuine frontrunners who love to set a cracking tempo, but it could prove a downfall for both. The Oakleigh Plate and Moir Stakes winner from last year will get a 2kg weight swing off Nature Strip and Bivouac, while the mare has shown in the past she can be hard to catch over 1000m if left alone. She won the Moir Stakes first up in the spring with 56.5kg on her back, and as long as she and Nature Strip are not going at each other throughout, she should feature in the finish.

#6 Fabergino (7)

The Tiarnna Robertson-trained Fabergino has three wins from four attempts down the Flemington straight, including two victories in a row this campaign. He steps up to Group 1 racing for the first time since a disappointing performance in the VRC Sprint, but he has come on in leaps and bounds over the past few months. He maps to take a sit off the pace, and his race fitness could see him feature prominently in the finish with the likes of Bivouac and September Run. She may find the 1000m a bit sharp for her liking, but at 56.5kgs she is hard to leave out of calculations.

#7 September Run (3)

How good could September Run be? Well, we are sure to find out on Saturday and beyond. She completed a hat-trick of wins when taking out the Coolmore Stud Stakes in the spring in dominant fashion, and all three of those wins were down the Flemington straight in black-type races. She looks to be the clear danger to the favourite given she will be towards the rear of the field, which should be no disadvantage with a hot tempo expected. While September Run is undefeated down the Flemington straight, her only start over 1000m was a fourth-place finish on debut. She has obviously improved since that debut run, so look for her to be charging home late.

#8 Swats That (8)

Swats That and September Run had a couple of memorable clashes in the spring, but this looks to be a touch harder for the Corstens-trained filly. She has had two starts at Flemington for two runner-up placings behind September Run, and despite getting in well at the weights, she is hard to have besides maybe in a wide first four.

Best bets for 2021 Black Caviar Lightning

$100 Betting Strategy
$100 win: Bivouac
Selections: 2-7-5-6

[rmOC_events_list event_ids=1361257_08]

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