2016 Group 1 Winterbottom Stakes runner guide and tips
THE big racing continues in Perth this Saturday with the Group 1 $1 million Winterbottom Stakes at Ascot and we have compiled a runner-by-runner guide.
The Winterbottom Stakes is one of the biggest races on the Australian racing calendar and this year sees 12 runners vying to add their name to the long list of champions.
Major Melbourne and Sydney stables are well represented in the betting and we have found our best tips for the 2016 Winterbottom Stakes.
CrownBet is giving away up to $25 in bonus points if your runner finishes second in this Saturday’s Winterbottom Stakes.
2016 Winterbottom Stakes field and market
1. Terravista – $3.50
2. Malaguerra – $3.50
3. Takedown – $10
4. Rock Magic – $7
5. Keen Array – $21
6. First Among Equals – $21
7. Battle Hero – $51
8. Vega Magic – $11
9. Regal Commander – $126
10. State Solicitor – $9
11. Sheidel – $12
12. Military Reign – $67
Most of the money has come for Terravista and local chance Rock Magic which has stayed firm at $7 despite facing a steep rise in class.
One runner not favoured in the betting has been Takedown, according to Sportsbet’s Ben Bulmer.
“If Takedown can recapture his spring Sydney form he would be right in this race. He is definitely in the mix, but for some reason punters have dropped off and all the money has been for Malaguerra, who holds 10-times more than Takedown,” Bulmer said.
The early money came for Malaguerra, but it has since drifted from $3.30 to $3.50.
Winterbottom Stakes runner guide and tips
1. Terravista – $3.50
Trainer: Joe Pride
Jockey Hugh Bowman
Form: 296×2
Barrier: 5
Joe Pride has his prized sprinter up and running again after finishing second in the G.H. Mumm Stakes at Flemington behind Redzel. It finished off nicely when clear to run only a nose behind the winner and a similar effort should see it winning this.
It is a five-time winner at the distance and it has won three times second up. If it has handled the travelling well enough, it should prove tough to beat with Hugh Bowman in the saddle.
2. Malaguerra – $3.50
Trainer: Peter Gelagotis
Jockey: Ben Melham
Form: 619×21
Barrier: 1
This Group one-winning gelding showed its true class when winning the Group 1 Darley Classic at Flemington on November 5.
The five-year-old defeated a top field of sprinters and it’s likely to get all favours jumping from the inside barrier. It is a five-time winner at this distance and the dry conditions in Perth will suit it perfectly.
The early money came for Malaguerra, but it has since drifted out to $3.50 at Sportsbet which is a fair price. Expect that price to stay firm for Saturday’s race.
3. Takedown – $10
Trainer: Gary Moore
Jockey: Tim Clark
Form: 0x1125
Barrier: 8
Takedown kicked off this campaign in style with consecutive victories at Randwick. The four-year-old won The Shorts before winning the Premiere Stakes two weeks later in what has proven to be a strong form guide for spring carnival racing.
It then went to Melbourne and had no luck in the Moonga Stakes behind Voodoo Lad, but it had its chance last start at Flemington where it failed to let down. That’s a big concern for punters which is why it is currently a $10 chance with bookmakers, but don’t underestimate its fighting qualities.
4. Rock Magic – $7
Trainer: Chris Gangemi
Jockey: Jarrad Noske
Form: 322112
Barrier: 3
The always-consistent Rock Magic comes into this having finished second behind Vega Magic in the Colonel Reeves last start. Its form prior included consecutive wins against quality opposition and there has been plenty of money come for the local runner.
Despite being beaten twice by First Among Equals ($21) this year, Rock Magic has been the best-backed Perth runner and it deserves to be considered as a winning hope.
It might pay to follow the market and look for any further betting moves.
5. Keen Array – $21
Trainer: Hayes/Dabernig
Jockey: Chris Parnham
Form: 21147
Barrier: 4
The slick sprinting son of Bel Esprit looked to be on the way up after consecutive wins at Caulfield this preparation, but its most recent form has been below par.
The four-year-old defeated subsequent winner Illustrious Lad by two lengths in the Caulfield Village Stakes, but its run for seventh in the Darley Classic wasn’t overly impressive.
It has the ability to win a race of this magnitude, but the odds of $21 represents its likelihood of winning the Winterbottom.
6. First Among Equals – $21
Trainer: Simon Miller
Jockey: Brad Parnham
Form: 11207
Barrier: 9
The five-year-old has been disappointing at its last two starts after showing plenty of ability earlier this year.
The Simon Miller-trained gelding won consecutive races at Belmont in the winter before running second behind Rock Magic in the Idyllic Prince Stakes. Its two runs since have been poor and it will need to improve significantly to beat the Victorians.
Tricky draw from barrier nine and we’re prepared to risk it at the price.
7. Battle Hero – $51
Trainer: G & A Williams
Jockey: Glenn Smith
Form: 120×30
Barrier: 10
Winner of the Roma Cup back in May before running second behind Wink And A Nod in the Belmont Sprint. It has mixed its form since with two poor runs and a third placing behind Rock Magic, so punters won’t be confident on which Battle Hero turns up on race day.
There’s no doubting its potential and it is unbeaten in two runs at this distance, but it will need to be at its very best here.
8. Vega Magic – $11
Trainer: Sean Casey
Jockey: Jake Casey
Form: 111×91
Barrier: 2
The Lope de Vega gelding was average when running ninth in the Prince Of Wales Stakes two starts back, but that was its only bad run in its 12-start career.
The four-year-old has had 12 starts for eight wins and three placings, which includes a last start win over Rock Magic in the Colonel Reeves.
It has won four from five at Ascot and seven from nine at this distance so the $11 at CrownBet.com.au looks a great each way price.
9. Regal Commander – $126
Trainer: Durrant/Miller
Jockey: Peter Hall
Form: 113×46
Barrier: 7
Five-year-old which has won six from 18 starts, but it looks unlikely to test these.
It finished sixth in the Colonel Reeves which is the best form guide for the local runners and its odds of $126 is a fair representation.
10. State Solicitor – $9.50
Trainer: G & A Williams
Jockey: William Pike
Form: 111×11
Barrier: 11
Winner of six from seven which is facing a significant rise in class after winning in rating 72 grade last start at Ascot.
The Williams-trained gelding is unbeaten in two starts on this track and it has won five times at this distance. It gets the addition of William Pike which is always a positive, but the lack of support in the betting is a surprise.
Pike-ridden horses are typically well-backed, but it has drifted out to $9.50 with WilliamHill.com.au after opening at $8.50. It’s a winning chance and will likely start shorter on the tote.
11. Sheidel – $12
Trainer: Hayes/Dabernig
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Form: 42115
Barrier: 6
Professional 14-time winner from 25 starts and it has great experience running at Ascot. The five-year-old is a winner of nine from 10 starts at Ascot and its recent form in Melbourne has been solid.
Before running fifth in the Group 1 Darley Classic, it won the Northwood Plume and the Begonia Belle which should be good form guides for this.
$12 is a great price for a course specialist and we think there will be plenty of support for it on the day.
12. Military Reign – $71
Trainer: Darren McAuliffe
Jockey: Corey Brown
Form: 1221×8
Barrier: 12
Disappointing effort when resuming for eighth and it will need to show its form from last campaign to figure in the finish.
Place chance at best.
2016 Winterbottom Stakes tips
1st – Terravista ($3.50 at CrownBet)
2nd – Malaguerra
3rd – Rock Magic
Best each way – Vega Magic ($11 at Sportsbet)
Terravista returned to its best form last start and we think it can go one better in the Group 1 Winterbottom Stakes.
The main challenge will come from Malaguerra and local runner Rock Magic which both have legitimate winning chances and our best each way hope is Vega Magic which has been running solidly of late.