2016 Cox Plate betting guide: Winx vs. Hartnell stats and tips
THE showdown that every horse racing fan wants to see might actually happen in the 2016 Cox Plate on October 22 at Moonee Valley.
For months punters have been hoping to see a race which features 2015 Cox Plate champion Winx and 2016 Turnbull Stakes winner Hartnell, and it looks likely to happen after all hope seemed lost.
The connections of Hartnell seemed reluctant to run in the Cox Plate and preferred to target the Caulfield Cup, but all signs now point towards a Cox Plate showdown with Winx which will attract worldwide attention.
There are other quality nominations for the Cox Plate which could easily upset the two favourites, but we’re confident this could be one of the better head-to-head races in modern history.
Punters can bet into the Cox Plate (all-in) market right now at CrownBet.com.au where new punters can get up to $450 in bonus bets.
Winx vs. Hartnell Cox Plate betting
Winx has been the favourite for the 2016 Cox Plate since its devastating win in the race last year. The Chris Waller-trained mare hasn’t been defeated since and it has given punters no reason to stop backing it.
Winx is currently $2.50 to win, which is getting down to dangerous odds, but with the amount of money rolling through futures bets, it’s hardly surprising to see the champion at such a small quote.
Hartnell is on the second line of betting at $3.50 after scoring three impressive wins this campaign. The ease of its wins has caused punters to take serious notice of the Godolphin runner which has found a new lease on life this spring.
We’re predicting the betting market to continue to tighten up for Winx which races this Saturday in the Caulfield Stakes as a $1.20 chance. Winx is firmly in the public eye and will carry plenty of support heading into the Melbourne spring carnival.
We look at both runners and determine whether Winx or Hartnell is your best bet for the 2016 Cox Plate.
Winx statistics, betting figures and race record
Race record: 21 starts for 15 wins and three placings.
Prizemoney: $7,135,425
Stakes race record: 19 starts for 13 wins and three placings.
Winx has had an incredible career to date which includes group one wins in the Cox Plate, Doncaster Mile, Epsom Handicap and the Queensland Oaks.
It has won 11-consecutive races which started with the Sunshine Coast Guineas in May of 2015. Since then, Winx hasn’t tasted defeat and among those 11 starts came seven group one victories.
It’s most recent win came in the Colgate Optic White Stakes (George Main Stakes) where it defeated Hauraki by just over a length. Punters would have seen how impressive Hauraki was in winning the Group 1 Epsom Handicap at Randwick last Saturday so that form has been franked significantly.
Winx will be entering the Cox Plate fourth-up in its five-year-old campaign. Last season it won the Group 2 Apollo Stakes by a length in its fourth run that preparation. In its season prior, however, it produced one of its worst performances when finishing fifth in the Vinery Stud Stakes behind First Seal.
The betting figures around Winx are quite extraordinary and they make the $2.50 available at CrownBet.com.au look like a steal.
It has started shorter than odds-on in its last six starts which doesn’t include this Saturday where it is currently a $1.15 chance at Sportsbet to win the Caulfield Stakes. During the stretch it has been quoted at prices of; $1.10, $1.25, $1.85, $1.90, $1.36 and $1.57.
It paid $4.50 to win the 2015 Cox Plate, but punters shouldn’t expect to see a price that high ever again for Winx.
Due to its incredible winning strike rate, punters which have backed Winx at all 21 career starts would have netted a profit of 91 percent return on investment. To put that in perspective, the mighty unbeaten mare Black Caviar returned only a 31 percent return on investment.
Hartnell race record, betting figures and stats
Race record: 13 starts for five wins and two placings (Australian record only)
Prizemoney: $2,223,999
Stakes race record: 13 starts for five wins two placings.
Since arriving in Australia during the 2014/2015 season, Hartnell has started in eight group one races from 13 starts. It kicked off its career down under in the Chipping Norton Stakes where it finished second behind stablemate Contributer, before winning back-to-back races.
It won the Group 1 The BMW at Rosehill over 2400m and many believed it would continue to win over the staying distances, but a string of win-less starts would follow. Its best result in the 2015/2016 season was a fifth placing in the Chipping Norton which came three months after a failed attempt on the Melbourne Cup.
After a lengthy six-month break, Hartnell was ready to return and it kicked off its new campaign in the Warwick Stakes where it finished second. That would kick start what has been an incredible three-run sequence which has seen some of the best performances on the track this year.
It won back-to-back group two races at Randwick by a combined winning margin of 13.6 lengths before heading to Flemington for the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes last start.
It was another dominating affair as Hartnell raced away for the 3.3-length win which proved that the 2000m is its best distance.
Punters haven’t had the same success as betting on Winx, but it has still returned a positive return on income of 3 percent. That figure wasn’t helped by its seven start win-less streak, but it has been paying good odds of late. Hartnell has won at odds of $1.90, $2.10 and $1.45 this season, which multi-bet punters have been enjoying.
Winx vs. Hartnell head-to-head record
Winx and Hartnell have met on three occasions with all the spoils going with Winx.
Their first meeting was in the 2015 Group 1 Cox Plate where Winx put over 10 lengths on Hartnell in an amazing display at The Valley.
Hartnell’s form leading into the race had not been stellar, hence its odds of $16, so punters looking towards the Cox Plate rematch shouldn’t look too deeply into that run.
They have met twice since with the first meeting coming in the Group 1 Chipping Norton Stakes at Randwick which finished in similar fashion. Winx was too good for its rivals with Hartnell finishing 4.7 lengths back in fifth, but that run might have turned the corner for Hartnell.
The pair faced each other once again in the Group 2 Warwick Stakes in which Winx cruised to victory by 3.5 lengths and established its dominance over Hartnell, but many punters believe the efforts of Hartnell since that run has trumped that of Winx.
Winx vs. Hartnell Cox Plate tip
Some experts are saying that Hartnell would beat Winx on their current form, but that’s based on speculation and Winx hasn’t done anything to suggest otherwise.
Winx has had one start since putting Hartnell away in the Warwick Stakes and that was a strong win over subsequent group one winner Hauraki. If that’s not good form, then we don’t know what is.
Hartnell has been impressive in winning its last three races and they have been amazing performances, but there was no Winx is those fields. There is no doubting that Hartnell is one of the most improved horses running in Australia and that credits the performance of its training team, but it would need to do something it has never been able to achieve.
Beating Winx in the Cox Plate seemed like a far-fetched idea just a few months ago. So dominant is the champion that horses are scared of taking it on, but if Hartnell does line up at Moonee Valley on October 22, at least we might see the champion pushed to its limits.
We can’t go past Winx at $2.50 with CrownBet which is better than $2 being offered with other bookmakers.