2016 Caulfield Guineas betting guide, form and free tips
THIS Saturday at Caulfield is one of those days punters circle in their calendars and load up the accounts for a big day on the punt.
One of the featured races on the card is the Group 1 $1 million Caulfield Guineas which has launched the stud careers of All Too Hard, Helmut and Lonhro just to name a few.
It’s a race that makes champions and we have a betting guide for the feature which includes runner-by-runner analysis, latest odds and our top tips.
The 2016 field includes Group 1 J.J. Atkins winner Sacred Elixir which won its last start well. The Kiwi raider will be looking to remain unbeaten in Melbourne, but it won’t have it easy the big Australian stables are well-represented.
John O’Shea lines up current favourite Impending which won the Stan Fox Stakes last start and also well-supported in the market is the Hawkes-trained Divine Prophet which adds to the strong Sydney contingent this year.
Finish second or third on the opening four races at Caulfield this Saturday and CrownBet will give punters up to $50 in bonus bets.
2016 Caulfield Guineas betting market
The Caulfield Guineas has attracted a field of 14 runners with four runners making the trip from Sydney. The New Zealanders are also well-represented with Sacred Elixir and Saracino.
It’s a wide-open market with five runners quoted under $10 which means there is some great value being offered for some quality thoroughbreds.
1. Sacred Elixir – $6.50
2. Impending – $4.40 at CrownBet.com.au
3. Good Standing – $9
4. Divine Prophet – $4.60
5. Hey Doc – $11
6. Saracino – $11
7. Seaburge – $19
8. Revolving Door – $26
9. Wazzenme – $21
10. Evacuation – $7
11. Land Of Plenty – $51
12. Kaching – $26
13. So Si Bon – $67
14. Barbie’s Boy – $151
Caulfield Guineas betting guide and tips
ROI = Return On Investment*
1. Sacred Elixir – $6.50
Trainer: Tony Pike
Jockey: Damian Lane
Form: x161x1
ROI: 190 percent
Sacred Elixir is a talented gelding from New Zealand which looked good winning the Guineas Prelude last month. That race is typically a great guide for the feature and although it faces harder opposition in this, the odds are appealing and its return on investment is a big positive.
It has won three of its last four starts which included its biggest win in the Group 1 J.J. Atkins at Eagle Farm. The form out of that race might not have stood up very well, but it should give punters a good sight at Caulfield on Saturday.
2. Impending – $4.40
Trainer: John O’Shea
Jockey: James McDonald
Form: 13×331
ROI: 26 percent
The Godolphin three-year-old is the current $4.40 favourite following its impressive win in the Stan Fox Stakes at Rosehill.
Impending is trying to emulate its sire Lonhro’s 2001 win and it looks a strong chance to do so. It scored its first career win on debut at Rosehill by 2.5 lengths before running into Astern on multiple occasions.
It finished an unlucky third behind Astern in the Run To The Rose before finishing off well in the Group 1 Golden Rose. It has been indicating that the step up to the mile will suit perfectly and considering its breeding, it will likely be finishing over the top of them late.
Tricky barrier draw of 10, but James McDonald is riding in great form and he should be able to find a good position during the run.
3. Good Standing – $9
Trainer: James Cummings
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Form: 05×953
ROI: -53 percent
Good Standing has been an expense runner for punters with a negative return on income. The James Cummings-trained colt hasn’t been able to find its best form in three starts this campaign, but its last start was encouraging.
It ran third behind Impending and was finishing off the race in fine style, which suggests it should appreciate the rise in distance and it will be hoping for good track conditions come Saturday.
It has been found in the market at $9, which is a good price considering its ability and the addition of Hugh Bowman in the saddle, but it’s simply not worth the risk based on what we’ve seen.
4. Divine Prophet – $4.60
Trainer: Hawkes Racing
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Form: 13×142
ROI: 275 percent
Divine Prophet is on the second line of betting at $4.60 and it has the coveted inside barrier. The son of Choisir burst onto the scene with its win in the Up And Coming Stakes at Randwick where it charged home from last.
It tried similar tactics in the Group 1 Golden Rose, but it managed only fourth behind Astern. Its run in the Stan Fox Stakes was full of merit and it should settle much closer to the pace from the inside draw.
Its ROI of 275 percent is via its two career wins to date where it paid $15 and $7.50, but punters will be getting much shorter odds for this.
5. Hey Doc – $11
Trainer: Tony McEvoy
Jockey: Luke Currie
Form: 40×111
ROI: 200 percent
Underrated gelding Hey Doc has impressed mightily by winning its last three races since failing in the Group 1 Blue Diamond.
The son of Duporth won narrowly at Sandown before beating a good field at Moonee Valley in September. It made it back-to-back wins at The Valley when winning the Stutt Stakes last Friday night and it could be the overlooked runner of the field.
It will need to have improved from that run to feature in this, but consider at the each way price.
6. Saracino – $11
Trainer: Murray Baker
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Form: 53×115
ROI: 70 percent
Saracino burst onto the scene with a win in the Danehill Stakes at Flemington and it had little luck behind Sacred Elixir in the Guineas Prelude.
The New Zealand colt has a touch of class about it and it’s bound to get a great trip in transit from barrier four with one of Flemington’s best jockeys in the saddle.
Damien Oliver retains the ride on the three-year-old which closed at $4.20 in the Prelude and despite an unlucky run, bookmakers have let it slide out to double figure odds.
It’s over the odds and could be worth a punt at $11 with Sportsbet.
7. Seaburge – $19
Trainer: Hayes/Dabernig
Jockey: Mark Zahra
Form: 16xx454
ROI: 34 percent
This three-year-old by Sebring has been set for the Caulfield Guineas and there were positive signs last start in the Prelude.
It finished off nicely to run Sacred Elixir to within a length and it hasn’t done much wrong in four starts since winning the VRC Sires Produce at Flemington.
It made good ground in the Sires Produce at Randwick and it was held up behind Detective in the Exford Plate at Flemington. There’s plenty to like about its chances here and the $19 is a good price for punters looking for value.
8. Revolving Door – $26
Trainer: Clinton McDonald
Jockey: Corey Brown
Form: 3×6562
ROI: -37 percent
Revolving Door looked the winner in the Guineas Prelude, but was run down late. The son of Sebring has won only one race from seven starts, but it ran in a more forward position last start and it paid dividends.
The only problem punters will have with taking the $26 is that it hasn’t won since February and the Caulfield Guineas is one of the most sought-after races. Prepared to risk at that price.
9. Wazzenme – $21
Trainer: Stuart Webb
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Form: 225343
ROI: 486 percent
The return on income for Wazzenme is very high, but it paid $41 to win on debut which has affected that percentage.
It hasn’t been able to win since, but it has ability and it has been running on nicely of late. The son of Wanted ran home late behind unbeaten galloper Russian Revolution before producing strong performances behind Defcon, Saracino and Sacred Elixir.
Punters could be quick to overlook its chances, but it is trained on the track where it has placed on four occasions and it could produce the upset at odds of $21.
10. Evacuation – $7
Trainer: Waterhouse/Bott
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Form: 1×17
ROI: 40 percent
The son of More Than Ready didn’t have a great run in the Guineas Prelude, but managed to stick with them in seventh position.
It was three-wide throughout the trip and even wider around the home turn, but it didn’t give up and that’s a good sign leading into this.
Trained by Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott, the three-year-old colt looked good winning its first two starts by a combined margin of 6.6 lengths and although it hasn’t yet shown ability at this level, it has been well respected in the market and a good run is expected.
11. Land Of Plenty – $51
Trainer: Mick Price
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Form: 5142
ROI: 10 percent
Must be considered on its last start placing behind Hey Doc in the Stutt Stakes. The Mick Price-trained colt was an outside chance with bookmakers in the race, but it worked home nicely and it shouldn’t be discounted on its form.
It is lacking an amount of class required to win this race, but we wouldn’t completely rule it out.
12. Kaching – $26
Trainer: Ciaron Maher
Jockey: Nick Hall
Form: 2616
ROI: -15 percent
Yet to finish out of the money in four starts, Kaching looks a strong type for Ciaron Maher which might be better suited next season.
The So You Think colt finished off stylishly in the Stutt Stakes which indicated that the longer distances will be its calling further down the track. We can’t rule it out and the $26 is a nice price, but place options would be the best go.
13. So Si Bon – $67
Trainer: Robbie Laing
Jockey: Michael Dee
Form: 2616
ROI: -15 percent
Broke maiden grades with a win at Pakenham two starts back before running sixth in the Guineas Prelude. It’s hard to judge how it will have come through that run and the bookmakers have it long in the market, which suggests it might find this too tough.
14. Barbie’s Boy – $151
Trainer: Louise Bonella
Jockey: Daniel Stackhouse
Form: 3×13
ROI: 40 percent
Won nicely two starts back, but there is very little form to recommend at this level.
Caulfield Guineas trifecta tips:
1st – Impending – $4.40
2nd – Hey Doc – $11/$3.50 at Sportsbet
3rd – Sacred Elixir – $4.60