2015 Crown Oaks field and best bets from the bookies
THE $1 million VRC Crown Oaks runs this Thursday at Flemington and three of the best young stayers in the country take their place in the field of 12.
A three-horse betting war is developing between Jameka, Sacred Eye and Ambience – with punters seemingly having to decide which one of the three to back.
Most of our bookmakers have sided with one of the three, but Sportsbet’s Christian Jantzen thinks there could be a minor upset.
We have the current market, the bookmakers’ Oaks tips and their best bet and value runners of the day.
2015 Crown Oaks field and odds
1. Pasadena Girl – $8
2. Jameka – $3.70
3. Sacred Eye – $4.20
4. Ambience – $4.40
5. Honesta – $13
6. Dawnie Perfect – $12
7. The Grey Flash – $101
8. Muzyka – $15
9. Ritzy – $81
10. Zarabeel – $34
11. Dulverton – $17
12. Princess Aria – $101
All the early money had come for last start winner Sacred Eye, but in the last few days the money has piled on for Jameka.
The Ciaron Maher-trained filly won the Vase on Derby day in good fashion and it has a place percentage of 87.50. That makes for good reading for place punters and it’s currently paying $1.45 for the place, which looks a nice multi-bet inclusion.
Sacred Eye burst into Oaks calculations after winning the Caulfield Classic last start and its breeding suggests it will easily handle the rise in distance to 2500 metres.
The third well-fancied runner is the John O’Shea-trained Ambience which looked like a natural improver when winning last start. It is a real good looker and it should attract plenty of money on the day of the race.
The only other runner in single-figure odds is the Peter Moody-trained Pasadena Girl which hasn’t quite come on this preparation, but still looms as a top winning chance.
Bookmakers Oaks tips
CrownBet.com.au – Sacred Eye at $4.20
“Her win against the boys in the Caulfield Classic on Caulfield Cup day cemented as her the horse to beat in the Oaks. Behind her that day was Derby runner-up Etymology.”
Sportsbet.com.au – Pasadena Girl at $8
“Class filly that will get a great run in transit with Hugh Bowman on. Didn’t get around Moonee Valley and is crying out for a big track. Big odds in a very even Oaks.”
WilliamHill.com.au – Jameka at $3.70
“Strong winner of the Vase against the boys’ last start with the Derby winner behind her. Should roll forward from the gate and in a race of little early speed should take holding out.”
Bet365.com.au – Ambience at $4.40
“Street Cry filly that was back to her best when winning the Wakeful Stakes five days ago. Ran away from her rivals suggesting she should run out a strong 2500m and looks hard to beat if she backs up.”
Bookmaker best bets and value runners
WilliamHill.com.au: Lumosty (Flemington, Race 7)
“Returned in good order recently when sharing the spoils with a subsequent Group II winner. Loves the straight course and back to mares’ grade looks extremely hard to beat.”
Value runner – Otooman (Flemington, Race 4)
“Has been readied for this with an easy trial win a few weeks back. Has a touch of class when right and looks well placed under the conditions of this race. Good value.”
Bet365.com.au: Slate On Edge (Flemington, Race 3)
“Look forward to the greys race every year and can see this honest fella leading the whole way. Will work across from the draw and the drop back to 1400m will be a big plus.”
Value runner – Nicoscene (Flemington, Race 6)
“Has only missed a place twice in 12 starts and resumes here after six months off. Has placed all three first-up runs and the double figures on offer looks fantastic value.”
Sportsbet.com.au: Berisha (Flemington, Race 2)
“Keeps improving for Robert Smerdon and finds a moderate race here on the limit. Looks to settle just off them from the draw, the extra trip will suit and be very hard to beat.”
Value runner – Tuscan Sling (Flemington, Race 7)
“The Melbourne Cup winning combo will be popular with the punters and we think they can win again here. Darren Weir horse with a stack of ability and is ready to win a good race. Great odds for a nice horse.”
CrownBet.com.au: Lumosty (Flemington, Race 7)
“Was a super effort first-up, the horse she shared the honours with that day won again on Derby day. Her two wins down the straight in May were breathtaking, the weight the only concern.”
Value runner – Nicoscene (Flemington, Race 6)
“Goes very well fresh and his win prior to spell was full of quality. He doesn’t win too often but this is an open race and he looks a great chance at odds.”