Why Aloisia is under the odds for the 2017 Crown Oaks

Aloisia
Aloisia is the odds-on favourite to win next Thursday’s Crown Oaks at Flemington, but is it too short? Photo: Racing.com

ALOISIA is the current odds-on favourite to the next Thursday’s Crown Oaks, but where’s the value?

There’s little doubting her form leading into the Oaks has been the best of any runner in the field, but punters will have to take a measly $1.70 for the risk.

It’s clearly under the odds with bookmakers and we’ve taken a look at some of the possible risk factors with backing Aloisia at such a price.

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It’s not easy to win the Oaks

There’s typically a warm favourite for the Oaks, much like Aloisia, but that doesn’t always translate into a positive result for punters.

The Oaks has been a happy hunting ground for bookmakers in recent history and we only need to go back to last year for proof.

Most punters thought Spring Champion Stakes winner Yankee Rose was a moral for the Oaks, but it finished a disappointing 14th out of 15 runners and the race was won by $101 chance Lasqueti Spirit.

Only four horses in the history of the Crown Oaks have won at odds lower than $2, with the most recent behind Faint Perfume in 2009. Since then, even horses such as Caulfield Cup winner Jameka and Mosheen paid over $2.50 for the win.

Trainer Aaron Purcell admitted that he wouldn’t be betting on Aloisia at its current odds, but he found it hard to make a winning claim for its opposition.

“I wouldn’t be backing her at $1.70, but I wouldn’t be backing against her either,” Purcell told Horsebetting.com.au. “The way she went the other day, it looks like she’ll be a top race horse in any division and she looks hard to beat.”

Will Aloisia run out the distance?

Most punters believe that three-year-old filly Aloisia will run out the distance and its pedigree would confirm that, but many middle distance thoroughbreds have tried and failed before.

The turn-of-foot shown by Aloisia at Moonee Valley last week was extremely impressive, but add another 240 metres to that and you have the Oaks distance.

Oaks winner of the past haven’t necessarily been the most dynamic horses in Australia, but they have the ability to outlast the opposition. Past winners such as Kirramosa and Jameka were able to grind their opposition down with high cruising speeds.

Aloisia doesn’t possess that quality and instead relies on a quick tempo up front to finish over the top of them. If connections are planning to sit off the pace, likely set by Pinot, and expect it to run them down with ease, they could be proven wrong.

Purcell believes his there are no concerns with his filly seeing out the Oaks distance.

“She was a little fat going to the Guineas. We trained her to win the Oaks the whole preparation and we tried to leave a little in the tank for the Guineas ans Vase,” Purcell said.

“I think she’s rock-hard fit now and the 2500m should be no problem.”

Pinot has top staying credentials

Pinot has been a punters friend this season with a ROI of 200 percent and that could continue next Thursday in the Oaks.

The Waterhouse/Bott-trained filly arguably brings in better staying form than Aloisia with its win in the Ethereal Stakes at Caulfield.

The 2000m win was a dominant front-running display from an outside barrier and that’s the type of performance synonymous of Oaks winners.

The removal of blinkers has worked magic for the daughter of Pierro this time in and when the dam (Dizelle) is sired by Zabeel, you know the filly is going to see out the 2500m.

Aaron Purcell indicated that Pinot was going to be the hardest to beat, but he believes his runner has them covered.

“It will take a smart filly to beat her,” Purcell said. “She’s a filly with a great attitude, is easy to train and easy for the jockey to ride on race day.

“Those things help a filly get 2500m this time of the year.

“Gai’s and Tony’s (McEvoy) chances look like good fillies, but I couldn’t be happier with my filly.”

Pinot looks a solid each way bet at $5 with Neds.com.au, but punters could be wise by taking the $1.80 to place.

2017 Victoria Oaks betting

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