Which horses to avoid and which ones to punt – 2016 Derby Day

Horses to avoid
This horse has a good record at Flemington, but it’s a horse to avoid punting on this Saturday

ONE of the common mistakes punters make is settling for odds that are too short on horses that are unlikely to win, so we’ve compiled a list of horses to avoid betting on this Saturday at Flemington in the hopes of finding you a winner.

Derby Day is one of the best betting days of the year – complete with nine stakes-graded races with four Group ones and the $1.5 million Victoria Derby.

There will be horses running throughout the day that bookmakers have at odds which doesn’t accurately represent their winning chances. On Cox Plate day we were able to identify these runners to avoid and it paid dividends, so we’re back with more as the Melbourne Cup carnival commences.

Sportsbet.com.au

Horses to avoid backing on Derby Day

The Flemington card kicks off with The Carbine Club Stakes which features a talented field of seasoned three-year-olds and there’s one runner in particular which has been backed off the map.

The Chris Waller-trained Comin’ Through opened at $7 and has been backed into $5 with more support expected to come on race day. We think this price is far too short for the three-year-old colt which is coming off a defeat in rating 70 grade last start.

There’s no denying its future potential and the step up to 1600m suits, but with the likes of Hey Doc, Acatour and Morton’s Fork in the field, we are avoiding taking the $5.

We suggest backing fellow Sydney-based runners Acatour ($4.60 at Sportsbet) and Morton’s Fork. Both colts are coming off moderate runs in Melbourne, but big improvement is expected.

Race 2 sees the running of the Wakeful Stakes and there has been some support for Alliterate at double-figure odds.

The Pat Farrell-trained filly finished a narrow second behind Bezel at Randwick last start where it ran erratically in the straight, but that’s hardly inspiring form coming into a $300,000 feature.

Its form prior included a narrow win at Gosford and a third placing behind Machinegub Jubs at Muswellbrook. It would need to improve out of sight to win here and the $10 on offer is short of value.

CrownBet.com.au

The Group 1 Myer Classic is our next target and we’re laying a popular pick from the Ron Quinton stables. Last start winner Dixie Blossoms was strong when winning the Angst Stakes at Randwick and that win has attracted plenty of attention from punters.

It opened at $7 and is currently at $6, but we have reservations about its ability at Group one level. It’s having its first start at Flemington which is always a concern and it faces some quality opposition here.

The big field might make it hard to find room and sometimes drawing an inside barrier at Flemington can get you pocketed in the straight.

We see more value with both Don’t Doubt Mamma and Denmagic at $21 at CrownBet.

Palentino runs as a $7.50 chance in the Cantala Stakes (formerly the Emirates Stakes), but we feel it would take a big effort to recover from its last outing.

The Darren Weir-trained runner finished last in the Epsom Handicap and it clearly didn’t handle the Sydney way of going, but those runs can hamper a horses confidence and despite its good form at Flemington, we have found runners at better prices than Palentino.

He’s Our Rokki has strung together wins this preparation which included the Group 1 Toorak Handicap and it’s an $8.50 chance at Bet365.com.au.

Voodoo Lad is currently $11 with Sportsbet despite winning three of its last four. It has drawn wide, but it will settle back and call upon its superior turn-of-foot.

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