Warrnambool carnival day one form, odds and free tips, May 2
THE Warrnambool carnival is one of the most exciting racing weeks of the year and it kicks off this Tuesday with the Brierly Steeplechase.
The jumping feature has attracted a field of 10 runners and the current favourite Zed Em is taking most of the money with bookmakers.
There are 10 races on the card this Tuesday which features some great jumps and flat racing action. We have form, odds and free tips for all 10 races which starts with the George Taylor Memorial Maiden Hurdle at 11.20am.
Race 1 – George Taylor Memorial Maiden Hurdle (3200m)
Bonfire has been drifting in the market, but remains one of the top winning chances. The Waterhouse/Bott-trained eight-year-old hasn’t lived up to expectations after being imported to Australia, but going over jumps could be its calling card. The German-bred gelding finished second in the Yarra Valley Cup two starts back which is a good form guide for this and it shouldn’t have any problems getting the staying distance. Opened at $2.90 and has drifted to $3.40.
Hale Soriano is from the powerful Darren Weir stable which has had plenty of success at this carnival. The six-year-old has shown good form on the flat, but its last three starts have been poor and a change of scenery is much-needed. The son of Halling has won four from 31 starts, which includes a win at this distance and punters have caught onto that statistic. It opened at $3.90 and has been heavily-backed into $3.20 on the back of strong public support. It gets the inside barrier which is ideal and jockey John Allen is more than capable of kicking it home.
Race 1 tip: Hale Soriano to win ($3.20) at Sportsbet.com.au
Race 2 – Tabcorp Maiden Hurdle (3200m)
Darren Weir and John Allen link up again in the second race with Ancient King. The seven-year-old has been out of form for awhile now, but it showed enough last start in the Terang Cup to warrant a go over the hurdles. The French import has placed in both starts to date at Warrnambool which is a big positive and it has placed twice over its six starts at the two miles. It has solid form in all track conditions and punters are confident with the $2.90 being offered by bookmakers.
Being specked at odds is Unabashed at $10. The Steven Pateman-trained gelding was a winner in a four-horse field at Wangaratta three starts back and has since placed. The New Approach five-year-old has yet to try its ability over the hurdles, but it’s in the right stable and punters are getting some good value. $10 is a value price for Unabashed, which could run into the money.
Race 2 tip: Unabashed to place ($3.20) at CrownBet.com.au
Race 3 – Fishtales Cafe Maiden (1200m)
Punters are getting frustrated with Deecember, but its chances won’t come better than this. The Jarrod McLean-trained filly has placed in all five career starts and it has started as favourite in its last four. The worst defeat for punters was when it was beaten at Terang as the $1.24 favourite. It has subsequently finished second as the odds-on favourite at Hamilton, but with Damien Oliver in the saddle it should have a good chance of winning. It has track experience and the $4 on offer is a value price.
The current favourite is Pearl De Vere at $3.80 after opening at $4.60. The Mitchell Freedman-trained filly is having only its second start after finishing second at Bendigo on debut. The nicely-bred three-year-old by Wanted wasn’t wanted by punters on debut at $9.50, but it will carry plenty of support coming into this and it only needs luck from the extreme wide barrier draw of 15.
Race 3 tip: Deecember to win ($4) at Ladbrokes.com.au
Race 4 – Cally Hotel R78 Handicap (2350m)
Lord Fandango struck like a thunder bolt of lighting last start at Ballarat. The Archie Alexander-trained four-year-old scored an impressive win at huge odds of $51 and it’s looking to go back-to-back in this grade. The European import was a winner at Epsom before coming to Australia and imported form is stacking up nicely for this carnival. Alexander has his hands on some talented imports and Lord Fandango could give him more success. Consider at $4 after opening at $4.20.
Poppiholla should have superior flat speed against this field, but it has often offered plenty without paying off. The Weir-trained daughter of Pentire finished second at Bendigo last start as the favourite and that came over 2400m, so this distance shouldn’t be an issue. The four-year-old was making good ground late behind subsequent winner Typhoon Monaco at Moonee Valley and that form should be good enough for this. We wouldn’t want to take anything shorter than $2.60.
Race 4 tip: Lord Fandango to win ($4) at Sportsbet.com.au
Race 5 – Callaghan Motors VOBIS Gold Strike (1000m)
Je Suis Tycoon was heavily supported last start at Caulfield where it was unlucky. The Henry Dwyer-trained filly finished seventh in the Sires behind Pure Scot and the form out of that race should stack up nicely. The two-year-old is a well-bred daughter of Written Tycoon which ran second behind Speed Street on debut, but it will need some luck from out wide in barrier 11. Punters are treading carefully with the $3.90, but it remains the favourite with bookmakers.
Sierradora is on debut for Darren Weir and the punters have come for it. The Irish bred filly by Captain Gerrard is currently at $5.50 despite making its debut here. It hasn’t had any public trials and given the support from punters, we’re assuming there’s plenty of stable money invested on it. A drift in the market will be alarming for punters that have taken the current odds, but any more support for it will indicate that a big run is likely at Warrnambool.
Race 5 tip: Je Suis Tycoon to win ($3.90) at Bet365.com
Race 6 – 3YB Scotty Stewart Brierly Steeplechase (3450m)
Zed Em is the form runner of this race having won its last two starts impressively. The Patrick Payne-trained gelding scored a scintillating 15-length win on this track two starts back before winning the Von Doussa at Oakbank over Lord of the Song last start. The New Zealand-bred son of Zed has won both starts at this distance and it has multiple wins in all track conditions. It has carried big weights in the past and we think the $2.50 being offered is the right price for Zed Em.
Now And Zen is a professional winner which has won 13 from 48 starts. The Weir-trained jumper has won twice on this track which is ideal and it showed good heart in finishing second behind Angelology in the Classic Hurdle last start. That came over 3600m and it drops back to a distance where it hasn’t raced yet, but that shouldn’t be a factor and there is good support at $3.30 so consider for the win.
Race 6 tip: Zed Em to win ($2.50) at Ladbrokes.com.au
Race 7 – Choices Flooring By Swintons R64 (1100m)
Bumgarner ran baseball’s equivalent of a perfect game last start when winning on debut. The Dwyer-trained three-year-old scored by just under a half-length at Ballarat and another tidy effort should be on the cards again. The talented son of Wanted settled back and produced a strong turn-of-foot to win, which will likely be needed again to win from a wide barrier. It has drawn barrier 11 which will force it back, but watch for it late at odds of $4.40.
Miss Benedetta is another strong runner for Darren Weir and it should improve with the run under its belt at Stawell. The four-year-old mare produced back-to-back victories late last year and it wasn’t far behind the talented Moonlites Choice two starts back at Kyneton. The daughter of Denman was well-backed to in last start and there is good support from punters here at $4.20.
Race 7 tip: Bumgarner to win ($4.40) at CrownBet.com.au
Race 8 – Carlton Draught R64 (1100m)
Del Piero was a winner two back at Donald before running second on this track last start. The McLean-trained gelding has looked capable in a limited career to date and it scored an impressive win at its only start over this distance. It likes to settle back throughout the run and flash home late, which are the tactics it will likely have to use from barrier 11. John Allen scores another good ride and punters are keen at $4.
Bring Me Luck is paying a nice each way price of $7.50 and it could figure in the finish. The Colin Chandler-trained filly broke its maiden status on this track last October and it has since placed twice from three starts. The three-year-old by Pluck has plenty of ability and it handles the softer track conditions well. There isn’t much depth to this race and it could take advantage.
Race 8 tip: Del Piero to win ($4) at Sportsbet.com.au
Race 9 – City Of Warrnambool Handicap (1700m)
Gallic Chieftain showed plenty of promise last campaign and it has shown form fresh up in the past. The Weir-trained four-year-old was a brilliant last start winner at Morphettville by over three lengths and it scored a two-length win over the likes of Goathland at Pakenham prior to that. It has yet to win a race on a rain-affected track, but its breeding suggests that won’t be a problem and Weir has another tidy runner on his hands. $4.20 with bookmakers.
Lady Selkirk is pushing for favouritism at $4.80 following a good late finish at Caulfield. The Matthew William-trained local has placed twice from three starts on this track and it has been racing against some tidy customers of late. It ran in the Sunline Stakes at Moonee Valley and although it finished over 12 lengths behind I Am A Star, it was considered good enough to take them on. This is much easier opposition here and it could take advantage.
Race 9 tip: Lady Selkirk to win ($4.80) at Sportsbet.com.au
Race 10 – Rock To Race @ Warrnambool Greyhounds (1200m)
Boss Coni has won twice already this campaign and another good showing is expected. The O’Sullivan-trained gelding won by five lengths to open its account this preparation and it scored an equally impressive three-length win last time out. The four-year-old son of Bianconi relishes the wet track conditions and punters are confident about its chances at $3.60.
Royal Ace is better than what it showed last start and $7 could be worth the risk. The Weir-trained colt finished eighth in a field of 10 at Stawell, but it will get better with more distance and it looked impressive winning its first two career starts. Weir would have put the work into it and having senior jockey Brad Rawiller in the saddle will give it every chance to improve.
Race 10 tip: Boss Coni to win ($3.60) at Ladbrokes.com.au