Turnbull Stakes tips with full card form and odds, October 7
AFTER 30 starts for 24 wins and almost $15 million in stake money, champion mare Winx will make its first ever appearance at Flemington in Saturday’s Group 1 Turnbull Stakes.
Most of the media attention has been about its opposition this week, but challenger Humidor will be sure to give the champion some stiff competition and provide the biggest test of this season to date.
We have free tips, form and odds for every race at Flemington this Saturday which also features 2016 Melbourne Cup winner Almandin in The Bart Cummings and also a big betting field of three-year-olds for the Edward Manifold Stakes.
Sign up to new bookmaker Neds.com.au for a $20 refund on the first race at Flemington if your selected runner doesn’t win.
Race 1 – Maribyrnong Trial Stakes (1000m)
Sunlight looks a nice two-year-old in the making after some pleasing trial efforts. The Tony McEvoy-trained filly is bred for speed by Zoustar and it gets the benefit of racing on its home track of Flemington. The early money has come for it at $3.50 so consider as a winning chance.
Grand Challenge is the next best in the betting at $4.60. The Lindsay Park-trained colt is another locally-trained type which is bred for early pace. Sun Bloodstock know how to pick their juveniles and it looks well-placed to follow in the footsteps of Madeenaty last season.
Race 1 tip: Sunlight to win ($3.40) at Neds.com.au
Race 2 – Antler Luggage Stakes (1400m)
Esperance looked the goods when winning its first two starts for James Cummings. The three-year-old gelding then ran sixth in the Danehill Stakes behind Catchy and that form should stack up nicely for this. It still needs to take the next step in order to win, but $4.60 is a fair price for the risk.
Chauffeur comes over from Sydney seeking a rare win. The Hawkes-trained colt is desperately seeking some black type success for its connections after going close in some of the biggest age-group races. It ran second in the San Domenico Stakes this campaign before battling in the Golden Rose last start. It was always indicated that it needed the mile, but 1400m will have to do.
Race 2 tip: Chauffeur to win ($5) at Unibet.com.au
Race 3 – UCI Stakes (1800m)
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Sunquest went close last start and punters are getting value odds for this. The Steve Richards-trained colt produced a strong finish behind Cliff’s Edge and there shouldn’t be a $3 difference in the odds between the two. It’s day will come soon and Saturday could be it.
Cliff’s Edge was a gutsy winner over a similar field last start and it’s odds are also appealing. The Darren Weir-trained runner has won three of its six starts and its only recent defeats have come at the hands of Jukebox and Royal Symphony. Consider at $6 based on that form.
Race 3 tip: Sunquest to win ($9) at Sportsbet.com.au
Race 4 – Gilgai Stakes (1200m)
Spieth doesn’t quite win as much as its namesake, but this is a winnable race for the talented runner. The Bryce Heys-trained five-year-old usually runs its best races at Flemington and the long straight gives it plenty of time to work through the gears. It was running home well behind Redzel at Randwick and it deserves to be the short favourite.
Quality mare Silent Sedition takes no time to find its best form and it has never finished out of the money in five starts at this distance. The Andrew Noblet-trained runner won the Group 1 William Reid last preparation before running a gallant fourth in the Queen of the Turf. It will be fresh over the 1200m, but consider at $4.20.
Race 4 tip: Spieth to win ($2.80) at Ladbrokes.com.au
Race 5 – Turnbull Stakes (2000m)
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Winx is the $1.18 favourite and it should be winning this start, but there are some negatives going against it. The Chris Waller-trained mare has never raced at Flemington before and it hasn’t faced the quality of Humidor this preparation. That being said, having only one rival won’t likely stop the great mare as she won’t have any pressure applied throughout the 2000m race.
Humidor will bring a challenge to Winx, especially if it shows the same turn-of-foot as it did when winning the Makybe Diva Stakes. The former New Zealand runner hit the front in style at Flemington last start and we’re not sure Winx has the same turn-of-foot as it had in previous seasons. $4.60 is a touch short, but it will run top two.
Race 5 tip: Winx/Humidor quinella at WilliamHill.com.au
Race 6 – Edward Manifold Stakes (1600m)
Leather’n’lace was certainly impressive when winning at Caulfield last month, taking its winning streak to three. The Weir-trained filly put over two lengths on a quality field last start and despite drawing wide in barrier 13 for this, it has been the only runner backed in the race.
Anchor Bid was bitterly disappointing at Flemington last start after looking like a potential top liner, but punters should allow it another chance. The Weir-trained filly by High Chaparral might run better with a lighter weight on its back and it has plenty of race fitness under its belt, which could work for or against it. The $2.65 to place is worth a look.
Race 6 tip: Anchor Bid to place ($2.65) at CrownBet.com.au
Race 7 – The Bart Cummings (2500m)
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Harlem was a stylish winner at Caulfield last start and it will have the confidence up now. The six-year-old import hadn’t shown much in Australia, with its best result being a sixth in the Sydney Cup behind Polarisation. Its win in the Naturalism came by over three lengths and it should be able to handle the rise in distance, but $3.90 is a touch short against this field.
Almandin is the proven winner in this field and its win last start was outstanding. The 2016 Melbourne Cup winner has won four of its last five starts which included the JRA Trophy last start when it bolted in along the inside of runners. Despite being a Cup winner it’s still underrated and we’ll happily take the $2 on offer.
Race 7 tip: Almandin to win ($2) at Sportsbet.com.au
Race 8 – Blazer Stakes (1400m)
Missrock has won only four races, but over $1 million in stake money. The Robbie Laing-trained sprinter won at Moonee Valley to kick off the new season and its run since have been solid behind Russian Revolution and Savanna Amour. It has past experience winning at Flemington and the big field suits its running style. Chance at $5.
Prompt Response battled late in the How Now Stakes last start, but it will improve with the fitness. The Waterhouse/Bott-trained four-year-old has placed in both starts at this track and this is its pet distance. The odds available are good each way value so consider here.
Race 8 tip: Missrock to win ($5) at Neds.com.au
Race 9 – Paris Lane Handicap (1400m)
Wyndspelle ran a much better race for new trainer Michael Kent last start at Caulfield. The former New Zealand entire finished second behind Sircconi and the New Zealand Derby entrant will only get better over time. Tricky draw, but watch for it late.
New Tipperary is lethal second-up with three wins from four starts. The Joe Pride-trained sprinter was seen working home well behind Comin’ Through last start at Randwick and its form prior came in the Doncaster Mile and JRA Plate. It has been well-backed with punters in early markets.
Race 9 tip: New Tipperary to place ($2.15) at Unibet.com.au