Top Australian Melbourne Cup tips and latest news
THERE has been plenty of talk about the invading European runners in the 2016 Melbourne Cup, but the top chances are locally trained and we think the Melbourne Cup has a good chance of staying on home soil.
The Group 1 Melbourne Cup is the pinnacle of staying racing in the southern hemisphere and before the field is finalised at 7pm on Saturday, we have found the best local chances at prices that will likely drop before Tuesday, November 1.
The European-trained runners have won three of the last six Melbourne Cups, but punters believe that’s about to change with both Hartnell and Jameka the only two runners at single-figure odds.
They’re our strongest hopes, but there’s some great value with a few other Australian runners which could go under the radar for the big race on Tuesday at Flemington.
CrownBet has the best odds for the 2016 Melbourne Cup so sign up now for 100% up to $1000 in bonus bets.
Jameka betting tips and news
Jameka stormed into Melbourne Cup contention with its dominant victory in the 2016 Caulfield Cup. The four-year-old put three lengths on its nearest rival and it immediately tumbled in the betting.
The Ciaron Maher-trained runner is currently paying $5.50 to win at CrownBet the Melbourne Cup and Maher believes it’s a live chance at Flemington on Tuesday.
“Any trainer would dream of these races. To have a real live chance is pretty exciting,” Maher said.
“She’s had a lovely smooth campaign.”
Its spring campaign kicked off in the P.B. Lawrence Stakes where it finished fourth behind Miss Rose de Lago and it followed that up with a seventh in the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes.
It stepped up over the more suitable distance of 2000m in the Group 3 Naturalism and it won with a leg in the air. The daughter of Myboycharlie put 3.8 lengths on a quality field which included Gallante and former spring carnival winner Set Square.
It then ran into $4.60 Melbourne Cup favourite Hartnell in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes and given the winning margin of 3.3 lengths in favour of Hartnell, Maher believes it will be the hardest to beat.
“I reckon Hartnell is the hardest to beat for sure. I would not be surprised at all if Jameka is fighting out the finish with him,” Maher said. “I thought Jameka was going very well in the Turnbull Stakes and then Hartnell just absolutely blew her away.
“I wouldn’t worry about Hartnell’s recent run behind Winx in the Cox Plate. If you take Winx out of the Cox Plate, Hartnell wins because he was simply at another level to those horses.
“Hartnell has got that electric turn of foot, he loves Flemington and he is clearly having the best preparation of his career.”
Maher isn’t worried about the internationals and believes his runner has improved since its Caulfield Cup win.
“I’m not too worried about the internationals in the Cup because Hartnell looks to me to be the main threat to Jameka. He is the one I am worried about,” Maher said.
“With all of Jameka’s campaigns she has improved with each run, and that is how I train her. The idea was always for her to peak for the Caulfield and Melbourne Cup and she has just kept getting better and better with each run.
“I am very confident with her heading into the Melbourne Cup.”
Hartnell to bounce back after Cox Plate defeat
Hartnell endured a tough defeat at the hands of Winx in the Cox Plate at Moonee Valley last Saturday, but how will the Godolphin gelding bounce back and can it give the global operation its first ever Melbourne Cup win?
By all accounts the five-year-old gelding has come through its Cox Plate run in good order and punters have shown no tendency to back Hartnell at the short odds.
It looks the horse to beat and CrownBet is offering $4.60 which is a much better price than other bookmakers are offering.
Trainer John O’Shea believes its form heading into the Melbourne justifies its favouritism tag.
“I think that his form warrants for him to be head of the market,” O’Shea said. “There are horses with less form who have started shorter in the Melbourne Cups and have been very effective. So I think he’s entitled to be somewhere near the top of the market.”
Hartnell will be looking to improve on a disappointing effort for 15th in the 2015 Melbourne Cup, but it has improved significantly this campaign and O’Shea states its past starts at the 3200m are good form guides.
“To be fair to him he hasn’t had circumstances that have suited him,” O’Shea said. “It would be nice to draw well and James (McDonald) could have him in a forward position and then we’ll get a true indication of his capacity to run 3200 metres here.
“I think in the Sydney Cup (where it finished fourth) if we had our time over again we wouldn’t have led. That probably didn’t help. And last year in the Melbourne Cup once he drew where he drew and when we went back the race was over, so I think they’re inconclusive.”
Multi-bet punters will be looking to include Hartnell in their bets as a place chance. CrownBet is offering $1.90 for Hartnell to finish in a top three position and they should take confidence from what jockey James McDonald said during the week.
“Last year he was quite fierce in his races and had a few faults going into the race whereas this year his preparation has been faultless,” McDonald said.
“John’s got him in tip-top order and he’s relaxing a lot better. That was the biggest concern last year, he just wasn’t relaxing.
“This year he’s a different horse. He’s got the right attributes to run the 3200. He relaxes well and he’s a weight-for-age performer racing under handicap conditions. So it looks pretty well set up for him.”
Almandin gets the nod from visiting trainer
We might have thought the proposition of taking on Hartnell and Jameka would put fear into the European runners, but Mike Bell, trainer of Big Orange ($15) is expecting the biggest challenge to come from Almandin, and it’s tough to disagree.
Almandin is from the powerful Macedon Lodge and it enters the Melbourne Cup having won the Group 3 Bart Cummings by 1.5 lengths. It is ticking over nicely this campaign and the imported son of Monsun looks a danger at each way odds of $11 at Sportsbet.
“The one that caught my eye is Almandin, he looks like he has been laid out for the race,” Bell said.
“Hartnell looks a little bit of an afterthought for me, he has had a tough time in the past month.
“If I had to pick a local horse I would say Almandin.”
Almandin’s form in Germany included a win in the Group 1 Unternehmer in 2014 where it defeated subsequent Melbourne Cup winner Protectionist.
It wouldn’t run for two years following that win, but it looked strong winning over 2500m last start and it could give Lloyd Williams his fifth Melbourne Cup victory.