Toorak Handicap 2020 runner-by-runner betting guide
| What | Group 1 Toorak Handicap (1600m) |
| Where | Caulfield Racecourse – Gate 22 Station St, Caulfield East VIC 3145 |
| When | Saturday, October 10, 2020 |
| Race Time | 5:50pm AEDT |
| Watch Live | |
The 1600m Toorak Handicap is the fourth of four Group 1 races at Caulfield this Saturday. Buffalo River currently tops the market just ahead of Junipal and I Am Superman. A full field of 15 has been assembled, so it will be interesting to see how it pans out.
Age Of Chivalry looks the likely leader on paper, but we expect to see Buffalo River, Sircconi, Archernar Star and I Am Superman all handy to the speed. Junipal will be midfield, while other market fancies Cascadian and Superstorm map towards the rear of the field.
1 – Mr Quickie (2)
Phillip Stokes and Jamie Kah combine with Group 1 winner Mr Quickie. He is now third up after a brilliant second in the Memsie when fresh before finishing down the track on an unsuitable soft surface last start at 1800m. The big query with him is where he gets in the run from barrier two, given that he usually gets back and runs on. He brings some of the best form into the race and must be respected.
2 – Cascadian (6)
If there’s ever a horse who has been crying out for a mile, it’s Cascadian. He finished fourth in the P.B. Lawrence and the Memsie, then never really got much room in the Sir Rupert Clarke last start. He steps up to 1600m and, with some rain around Caulfield, the sting out of the ground will suit him perfectly. He should be peaking here.
3 – So Si Bon (12)
Lindsay Park’s enigmatic gelding So Si Bon has turned his form around in the last 12 months after it took him 28 starts to win his second race. He won two in a row in the autumn and has placed at Group 1 level already this spring behind Fierce Impact and Russian Camelot, which is superb form. He drops back to 1600m after the Underwood, which is some concern, and has drawn wide to make it even harder. He’ll hit the line strongly.
4 – I Am Superman (7)
The Snowdens saddle up their last start winner in I Am Superman in what looks to be a very suitable race for the ex-Irish entire. He has been well placed in both runs this prep, winning first up at this track in Benchmark grade before going to Sydney, where he won the Group 2 Shannon Stakes in impressive fashion over Riodini and Looks Like Elvis, who both ran tremendously well in last weekend’s Epsom Handicap. That form is good enough to win this. Mark Zahra will get every chance form barrier seven to be handy and strong late.
5 – Superstorm (13)
Western Australian raider Superstorm promised so much in the autumn, running second in the Australian Guineas and the All-Star Mile, but hasn’t really fired a shot in three runs back in what has been an unusual campaign. He finished off very well on Saturday in the 2000m Turnbull Stakes to run seventh but now steps back to 1600m, which we don’t think will suit. He’ll have to go back from barrier 13 and produce a monstrous run to win this. Under the odds, in our opinion.
6 – Chief Ironside (3)
UK import Chief Ironside hasn’t really fired since he has been in Australia, with only the one win to his name in the Group 2 Crystal Mile on Cox Plate Day last year. He rises 5kg in weight in this year’s edition from what he carried last year when 13th. The six-year-old entire did run very well up on speed in the Cameron Handicap at Newcastle last time out, finishing behind Rock and Just Thinkin’, but he needs to go to another level here. He maps well and will be thereabouts, but we can’t have him.
7 – Mandala Effect (8)
Tasmanian runner who’s best form is at a mile with three wins from four starts and is a winner at Caulfield before. Has whacked away in both runs this campaign and looks to be outclassed again here.
8 – Reykjavik (14)
Last year’s Winter Championship Final winner comes into this after what we though was a brilliant run in the Sir Rupert Clarke when he had very little luck. He is now fourth up and steps up to a mile for the first time this prep which will suit. While he has only placed once at Caulfield, he does have a fourth and a fifth here and was beaten less than 2L on both occasions. Barrier 14 is the query as he might be stuck deep throughout, but if Yendall can find cover, he’s a great chance. He can surprise here at big odds.
9 – Archernar Star (1)
Another from the Lindsay Smith stable, Archernar Star did beat Reykjavik home in the Sir Rupert Clarke last time out after a tough on speed run. He has never won at a mile before and could crumble under pressure late. Drawn perfectly for his style of racing, but we cannot have him.
10 – Sikandarabad (10)
Sam Kavanagh’s Coffs Harbour Cup winner comes south of the border for another crack at this race after running fourth last year. His last two runs have been at 1900m and 2000m, so it seems odd to be coming back to a mile on Saturday, however, he did run third in the Naturalism (2000m) before his fourth in the Toorak 12 months ago, so that could be the key. Barrier 10 will see him just better than midfield for Jye McNeil. Looking to others.
11 – Sircconi (11)
Sircconi comes into this after what has been a long 10-run campaign. He has raced every month since April but has been running very well and hasn’t suggested he is ready for a spell. His win in the Winter Championship was dominant, and his fourth in the Feehan Stakes behind Humidor and Surprise Baby looks ideal form for this. Barrier 11 is some concern, as Dan Stackhouse will have to work early to get him up on the pace if they are to persist with his natural racing pattern. An each-way chance.
12 – Age Of Chivalry (15)
He started towards the top of the market in this race last year when third behind Fierce Impact and only rises 1kg in weight from that edition, which is a big plus. While his form hasn’t been horrible, it’s been 13 months since his last win. Barrier 15 again is a problem, as they typically like to go forward in the run. If he can get across no worries, he looks the leader in the race and will be there for a long way, but he can win without us.
13 – Junipal (9)
Ciaron Maher and Dave Eustace saddle up Junipal here for what is his first Group 1 attempt. The gelding has put two dominant wins together this time in, winning by a cumulative margin of 5L. He gets in well at the weights and has drawn well in the middle of the line out of nine. John Allen has been victorious on him both starts this prep, so he will be hoping to keep the winning streak alive. He’s at the top of the market for a reason and is a brilliant chance.
14 – Harlech (4)
New Zealand expat Harlech brings some brilliant form across the Tasman. He has a second to Catalyst, has split Traveling Light and Riodini, and finished fourth to Probabeel in the 3YO Karaka Millions in his last New Zealand start. While he failed first up in the Sir Rupert Clarke, up to a mile should see him improve drastically. He is drawn well to race a bit closer here and will be much better for the run around Caulfield last time out. We can make a case for him at $51.
15 – Buffalo River (5)
Mike Moroney saddles up bottom weight and favourite in Buffalo River here. After an agonisingly close second to Windstorm first up, he looks ready to go here. Formerly trained in the UK, he was sent to Australia with the Golden Eagle in mind last year, but they didn’t make the field, so there’s clearly a high opinion regarding the gelding. He draws to do no work under arguably the best Group 1 jockey in Australia in Craig Williams and will be right in the finish. The wetter the better for him too.
$100 betting strategy for 2020 Toorak Handicap
- I Am Superman – $35 each way
- 4-8-13-15 – $30 boxed trifecta
We see this race fairly similarly to the market, with our top three picks the only runners in single figures. I Am Superman goes on top after his great win in Sydney. Buffalo River is a deserving favourite and will get the run to suit, while Junipal is in career-best form and will charge home with even luck. Reykjavik is the best at odds for those wanting to play a bit wider.