Stradbroke Handicap runner-by-runner guide and betting tips
Queensland’s feature race, the 1400m Stradbroke Handicap, will be run and won on Saturday in front of no crowds due to COVID-19. It will be the first time without fans since 1919, when Gold Tie won back-to-back Stradbroke titles during the times of the Spanish Flu. This year’s edition will be run for just $350,000 with $203,000 going to the winner. The rail will be out 3m for the entire circumference of the track. A bumper 18-horse field has been assembled including last year’s quinella, Trekking and Tyzone. A trio of three-year-olds will face the starter, including $4.50 favourite Dawn Passage. There looks to be very little speed in the race, with Deep Image and Chief Ironside the likely go-forward horses.
1. Trekking (22)
5yoG, T: James Cummings, J: M Cahill, 58kg
Last year’s winner is back for a second throw at the stumps in what will be the gelding’s first run since winning the Group 1 Goodwood Handicap at Morphettville three weeks ago. Michael Cahill, who his no stranger to Brisbane Group 1 races, will ride Trekking for the first time on Saturday. No horse has won this race with 56kg or more since Show A Heart won in 2002. Barrier 22 and the big weight makes it a tough ask to go back to back.
2. Kementari (10)
5yoG, T: J Cummings, J: R Maloney, 55.5kg
James Cummings saddles up four runners in this year’s edition, including the enigmatic stud-dud turned gelding Kementari. ‘Special K’ hasn’t won since the Randwick Guineas in 2018 and has failed to fire a shot in his two Queensland runs this prep, finishing fifth in the BRC Sprint and eighth in the Victory Stakes. Ryan Maloney should give Kementari every chance from barrier 10, but the horse appears to be weighted poorly and not quite in the right form to make it another Group 1.
3. Niccanova (17)
6yoG, T: S Tregea, J: J Orman, 53kg
Niccanova has had just the two runs in 2020, which have both resulted in encouraging seconds in the Sunshine Coast Cup (January 25) and the Victory Stakes (May 23). His most recent effort behind Victorem showed plenty of promise with a flashing-light run from the back of the field. Second up and the rise in trip looks to suit the gelding, which will be looking to make it win number 10 in his Group 1 debut. James Orman will likely settle towards the rear again from the sticky gate and finish off strongly again.
4. Ranier (19)
4yoG, T: J Cummings, J: L Cassidy, 53kg
Ranier is the third of Godolphin’s runners and, in our opinion, their top hope despite being the stable’s fourth elect in the market. The son of Lonhro has won two in a row and is racing in career-best form. The gelding’s first-up win saw him clock the best overall race sectionals, weaving through the field to get the head down when it counted, then took a month off before winning in dominant fashion at Rosehill over 1300m. Larry Cassidy will hope to find a spot in the top half of the field from the wide gate. If he can find a handy position close to the speed, he is a definite winning chance.
5. Victorem (9)
5yoG, T: J Graham, J: D Smith, 52.5kg
Victorem comes into this race off the back of a dazzling victory in the Group 2 Victory Stakes a fortnight ago. The son of I Am Invincible is a two-time winner at Eagle Farm and has never missed the places at the 1400m, which will be vital in a race like this. Dale Smith will reunite with Victorem for the fourth time and look for another win on the gelding. He should get all the favours from barrier nine and be fighting out the finish.
6. Tyzone (21)
6yoG, T: T & T Edmonds, J: R Fradd, 52.5kg
Last year’s runner-up hasn’t won since the BRC Sprint in 2019, but his last-start fifth suggested that he is close to another win. The handicapper has allocated Tyzone half a kilogram less than last year, while he will carry 4.5kg less than his last start in the Victory Stakes. Robbie Fradd will be forced to go back from the wide alley, but he should finish off strongly in a bid to go one better in Queensland’s great race.
7. Crack Me Up (11)
6yoG, T: B Baker, J: J Huxtable, 52.5kg
Crack Me Up has been off the scene for a while with just the one run since January, when fourth in the Listed Takeover Target at Randwick. The 6yo finished fourth in the 2018 edition behind Santa Ana Lane and gets into this edition with 1kg less. He should get a good run from barrier 11, but he hasn’t won for over two years and a victory here seems very unlikely.
8. Vega One (20)
4yoG, T: T Gollan, J: J Byrne, 52kg
Tony Gollan’s top seed, Vega One, has had his spot in this race since December’s dominant win in the inaugural running of The Gateway over this track and distance. His three runs this campaign have only been fair, finishing fourth, fourth & ninth respectively. At his most recent run, he was sent out as favourite and failed to live up to those expectations. Jim Byrne will have a crucial decision to make from barrier 20 as to whether he goes forward or back. Could find his best back up to 1400m but will need plenty of luck from the wide alley.
9. Chief Ironside (14)
5yoH, T: K Lees, J: C Bayliss, 52kg
Chief Ironside led them a merry dance in the Listed Scone Cup three weeks ago before being grabbed late to lose out by half a length. The slight freshen up and drop back to 1400m should suit the UK import, which maps to be one of the pacemakers from gate 14. His only Australian win came in the Listed Crystal Mile at Moonee Valley on Cox Plate Day last year and he will have to find his best to win this.
10. Graff (2)
4yoH, T: K Lees, J: S Cormack, 52kg
Graff is no stranger to Group 1 racing with a placing in the Golden Rose and two fourths in the Lightning and Newmarket handicaps in the Autumn last year. He hasn’t been in that form for a while now, so it seems unlikely that he’ll find himself in the winner’s stall on Saturday. Sean Cormack should give him a good ride from his low draw but will need a bit more than luck on a horse that is simply out of form.
11. Deep Image (18)
6yoG, T: R Heathcote, J: S Thornton, 51.5kg
Rob Heathcote’s gelding looks to be the likely leader from his wide draw, which could be a benefit to him in a race that looks thin on for early speed. He is a four-time winner at Eagle Farm and steps up to 1400m again, a distance he has won at six times. The Testa Rossa gelding drops 4.5kg from his last-start third in the Victory Stakes where he didn’t have the run to suit. He can be slightly tardy out of the gates, which could cost him. If, however, he jumps well and finds the lead easily enough, he may be well and truly over the odds.
12. Winter Bride (16)
5yoM, T: T & T Edmonds, J: J Bayliss, 51kg
Winter Bride was raced upside down last start when she led the field in the Victory. She has drawn awkwardly again here in 16 and so may have to push forward again, which won’t suit. She has yet to place in three attempts at Eagle Farm and the 1400m looks a bridge too far. Hasn’t won for a while, a win would shock.
13. Madam Rouge (13)
4yoM, T: C Waller, J: J Taylor, 51kg
Chris Waller saddles up just the one runner this year in Madam Rouge. She hasn’t fired a shot this campaign, being well beaten in all three runs. She looks a better 1200m horse and has drawn awkwardly in 13. If she runs well, we wouldn’t be surprised to see her back up in the Dane Ripper next weekend. This looks a tough ask for the Zoustar mare.
14. Outback Barbie (8)
4yoM, T: T Gollan, J: M Du Plessis, 51kg
Outback Barbie appears well over the odds in her toughest task to date after a third in the BRC Sprint and fourth in the Victory Stakes. Mark Du Plessis was booked to ride her before winning the Victory Stakes aboard Victorem and will get every chance to turn the tables from barrier eight. She has failed to place in five goes around Eagle Farm, which is a concern. One to include in multiples.
15. Bam’s On Fire (1)
4yoM, T: C Maher & D Eustace, J: T Harrison, 51kg
Drawn in gate one, Bam’s On Fire is going to get a lovely run just off the pace. She ran a brilliant third in her first Group 1 attempt last start in the Sangster Stakes at Morphettville. Her best form is fresh, so the month between runs can only be of benefit for the Universal Ruler mare. Not sure she’s good enough to win a Stradbroke, but she does always race consistently and will get a run to suit.
16. Dawn Passage (23)
3yoC, T: G Waterhouse & A Bott, J: J Innes Jr, 50kg
The race favourite copped the dreaded visitor’s draw after winning his way in through the Fred Best Classic last week. The Dawn Approach colt has strung three wins together and does his best work at 1400m. James Innes Jr has been in isolation in Queensland for two weeks to ride this horse, which is a positive sign for favourite backers. From the outside gate, they will likely push forward and race for cover in the three-wide line. He appears a deserving favourite but is likely to drift on the day.
17. Hightail (5)
3yoC, T: P & P Snowden, J: B Spriggs, 50kg
Peter and Paul Snowden are fantastic grand final trainers and look to have Hightail ready to go after two wins to kick off this campaign. They elected to skip the Fred Best last weekend to keep his runs spaced and he looks a genuine contender. The Written Tycoon colt has placed in the Magic Millions 2YO Classic and the VOBIS Showdown and won the Group 3 Gold Coast Guineas at his most recent outing. From barrier five, he will get a lovely run in transit and look to be finishing strongly. Looks a good each-way bet.
18. Exhilarates (4)
3yoF, T: J Cummings, J: T Marshall, 49.5kg
The last of the Godolphin runners, Exhilarates looks a live, lightweight chance down on the minimum. She draws all the favours in gate four under Taylor Marshall, who is looking for his maiden Group 1 victory. Cummings elected to run her in the Fred Best Classic last weekend despite already having a spot in the final field. She won the Magic Millions last year on the seven-day back up, so this could be a masterstroke from the trainer. Genuine contender.
19EM. Baccarat Baby (3)
4yoM, T: D Vandyke, J: M Hellyer, 51kg
Last year’s Sunshine Coast Guineas winner has just missed in three runs this campaign, being beaten by a total of half a length in three runs as favourite. She ran a brilliant fifth in the Empire Rose at Flemington on Derby Day behind Melody Belle, which looks great form for this. She can run a good race if she gains a start.
20EM. Brave Song (12)
5yoG, T: P & P Snowden, J: – 51.5kg
Brave Song finished over a length off Ranier in the Luskin Star last month but would need to improve if he manages to gain a start. The gelding hasn’t won for 12 months at this track at Group 3 level. Unlikely to get a run, but wouldn’t be in the finish regardless.
21EM. Bandipur (7)
5yoG, T: K Purdy, J: – 51kg
Ex-Godolphin runner who looks better suited to the sprint trips despite placing once at 1400m. Worked home OK from last to finish within fourth lengths of Scallopini last weekend but not going well enough.
22EM. Military Zone (15)
4yoG, T: P & P Snowden, J: – 51kg
Would need a lot of luck to gain a start. Is racing well enough with a fifth behind Ranier six weeks ago before running fifth again as favourite in the Scone Cup. If he gets in, they will have to go back to near last from the gate and could finish strongly.
23EM. Delectation Girl (6)
6yoM, T: K Lees, J: – 51kg
Got within a neck of Doncaster winner Nettoyer back in October at Group 3 level, which reads well. Hasn’t won in Australia in 12 starts and not going anywhere near good enough should she gain a start.
Best bets for Stradbroke Handicap 2020
We are going to side with Ranier at an each-way price here. James Cummings appears to have a bit of a rap on the gelding and he looks very well placed in a relatively weak edition of the winter feature. He should find a decent spot despite the wide alley and be too strong. Happy to have something each-way on Hightail and Deep Image as well.
Ranier @ $19