Spring Champion Stakes 2020 runner-by-runner betting guide
The $1 million Group 1 Moet & Chandon Spring Champion Stakes is the feature race at Royal Randwick on Saturday. The 2000m for three-year-olds has been won by some genuine stars of the turf, including Savabeel, Dundeel and Ace High. Love Tap is the favourite ahead of Montefilia and Cherry Tortoni.
Love Tap looks to be the leader on paper. Lion’s Roar, Street Dancer and Bucharest will all be handy as well, while Montefilia will get back from the inside alley and Cherry Tortoni will get the dream run behind the speed in gate four.
1 – Cherry Tortoni (4)
Patrick Payne’s gelding heads north for his first attempt at Group 1 level. After winning his first three race starts, he returned to the track with a flashing-light run in the Listed Exford Plate and then ran second to the talented Glenfiddich at Moonee Valley. He looks to have been crying out for 2000m and should get a beautiful run in transit from barrier four.
3 – Love Tap (14)
Richard and Michael Freedman’s unbeaten gelding will jump as one of the more fancied runners after a 1.8L victory in the Gloaming Stakes last time out. Nash Rawiller didn’t ask for much effort from the grey, but he was still too good for a subpar field. In all four career starts he has been prominent in the run, so he’ll have to work hard from barrier 14 to find a position. That could prove costly late, but he’ll be in it for a long way.
4 – Street Dancer (15)
Finished second in the Gloaming after having a good run leader’s back. Prior to that he won in all-the-way fashion at Newcastle, beating the talented Reaching by under a length. The outside alley makes it hard for him as he will likely push forward with Love Tap and faces being caught wide without cover. He’ll be thereabouts but we can’t have him on Saturday.
5 – Bucharest (3)
The regally bred Bucharest has drawn perfectly in gate three and gets the A1 booking of James McDonald. The blinkers go on for the first time which will be a big plus for the colt after he had a good think about it last start when third in the Gloaming Stakes. He is likely to stalk the speed and be making a bold run in the straight. 2000m should suit. Good each-way bet.
6 – Lion’s Roar (7)
Was a tough winner at Newcastle last start over 1870m considering he was headed in the straight. A winner of three from four is great form for this, considering his only defeat came when second to Mo’unga who is right in the market in the Caulfield Guineas. He’ll go forward from gate seven under Brenton Avdulla and look to make it a true staying test again. He now has to take his provincial form to the next level, but so do a lot of these.
7 – Achiever (10)
Was a dominant winner back in the Autumn to break maiden status but hasn’t gone on with it this time in. Boss, McDonald and Avdulla have all riden the colt in his three starts this campaign and none of them managed to find the key with him, so we won’t be jumping on now with Kathy O’Hara in the saddle, no knock on her, but the horse isn’t going well enough to figure here. Up in trip will suit but will be too far back in the run from barrier 10.
8 – Albarado (11)
One of two Busutin & Young runners from Victoria who finished third at Listed level behind Khoekhoe last weekend at Flemington. Being by Savabeel, the 2000m will be no issue at all which was reflected in his strong finish over 1800m last start. He has a second to Cherry Tortoni in his second start which is solid form, but we aren’t sure the rest of his runs have been good enough to have him in his toughest assignment to date.
9 – Choir (2)
James Cummings saddles up just the one runner here in Choir. He is one of only two runners in the field to have had a run at 2000m, where he was successful at maiden grade at Moe in August. He had a six week freshen up and was very good behind Cetshwayo in the Derby trial at Flemington over 1800m. Rachel King will hopefully not get too far back from barrier 2 and give the big strong colt every chance in the straight. Could be value.
10 – Wertheimer (8)
The second from the Busutin & Young camp is Tavistock gelding, Wertheimer. Tommy Berry takes the ride from barrier 8 which will suit. Won his maiden in good fashion at Cranbourne before taking that form to town which saw him finish midfield in both of those runs. He had no luck last start and was shuffled back to nearly last in his last run when he flew late. Damien Oliver stuck with him in all runs so far in Victoria which is a positive sign. He can run a big race with even luck.
11 – Socrates (5)
Another by Tavistock is Socrates for John O’Shea and Kerrin McEvoy and we think he has been completely overlooked by the market. He has only won one from three which came at Kembla Grange last start in maiden grade, but he sat three wide without cover for the entire trip and still won by 3.8L and was strong through the line. He draws a much softer gate here and should get cover and a good run in transit handy to the speed. The well-bred colt can figure here at a big price.
12 – Gorshin (6)
The sole maiden of the field looks completely outclassed here with a record of 8:0-1-0. His second did come at his most recent run at 2000m which is about the only positive. He’ll settle midfield from barrier 6 and will find it hard to keep up. A deserved $151 shot.
13 – Montefilia (1)
Last start Flight Stakes winner Montefilia backs up here and looks well suited at 2000m. She was very good in the final furlong at a mile last time out which suggests the 2000m will be right up her alley. Jason Collett hops aboard and will need to navigate a good path from the inside gate which is about her only knock. She gets to carry 2kg less than most of her opposition which is an advantage as the sole group 1 winner in the field. Likely to start favourite and a deserving one at that.
14 – Miraville (13)
She failed in the Flight Stakes last start when getting in a speed battle for a long way before fading to finish sixth beaten 7L. The start before that we thought she was super hitting the line in the Tea Rose behind Dame Giselle which is some of the best form for this race. Josh Parr stays aboard and we hope to see the pair settle worse than midfield especially given the wide draw and allow her to use her turn of foot that we saw two starts back. The stable have won this race with Maid Of Heaven two years ago, so they’ll be looking to add another to their cabinet. Can figure here.
15 – Favreau (12)
The first and only emergency in the race is John Sargent’s Favreau. He put in a great run when third in the Gloaming last start from back in the pack and just missed second in a four way photo. He’ll get back again from barrier 12 if he gains a start and can be a place chance at odds.
Best bets for Spring Champion Stakes 2020
Cherry Tortoni goes on top for us as he brings some brilliant Melbourne form to a fairly average Group 1 field. He will get the dream run and be too good. Montefilia the danger, while Choir and Bucharest look the best chances at odds.
$100 betting strategy for Spring Champions Stakes
- Cherry Tortoni – $50 each way