Sportsbet installs Winx as 2016 Melbourne Cup favourite
WINX is $13 to win the 2016 Melbourne Cup.
Take a minute to let that sink in. We at Horsebetting.com.au can’t get our heads around it.
It just doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.
The Chris Waller-trained mare has won 13 races throughout its 19-race career and its best result over distance was winning the Queensland Oaks over 2400 metres. That came against its own age and sex, which will count for nothing come the first Tuesday in November.
The 2015 Cox Plate champion is best-suited over the mile where it has won on four occasions and the connections have never publicly stated that the Melbourne Cup was on their agenda. Winx is being set towards defending its Cox Plate title and a tilt at the staying distance of the Melbourne Cup seems remote.
Sportsbet is offering $13 for Winx to win the Melbourne Cup. Not only is it odd to include Winx in the market to begin with, but to have it installed as the favourite is puzzling.
Our problem is that all-in betting means punters don’t get their money back if the horse doesn’t start in the race. The casual punter might see Winx paying $13 and jump straight in because they’re used to the champion paying much shorter odds for its races. We sincerely hope our knowledgeable readers haven’t invested too much money on Australia’s best horse for Australia’s most-popular race.
There is a silver lining, however, as the short odds for Winx means there are better prices available for runners likely to take part in the race that stops a nation. Horses such as Queen Elizabeth Stakes favourite The United States ($21) and recent Australian Derby winner Tavago ($34) are at good prices and they will only shorten as punters cotton onto the Winx situation.
WilliamHill.com.au also has Winx in its market. It is offering $17 for Winx to win the Melbourne Cup, so if you completely disagree with our thinking and reasonable logic in general, at least take the better odds on offer with WilliamHill.
Winx has a much better chance of winning the 2016 Cox Plate because that’s the race it is being set for. Not only did it dominate a classy international field last October, but it hasn’t been defeated since. WilliamHill is offering $3.20 (better than $2.75 at Sportsbet) and that’s the smarter bet.