Mornington betting tips & form guide – Thursday, 27 August 2020
Racing returns to Mornington for the first time since June 8. The track is rated a Heavy 10 at the time of writing, but it may get an upgrade early in the meeting with favourable conditions forecasted until mid-afternoon on race day. Our best advice is to look for the genuine wet trackers, because this looks like it could be a hard slog all day.
Thursday racing tips for Mornington
Grey Khan @ $6.50
Speaking of a hard slog, it doesn’t get much tougher than a 3080m race to kick off the program. Come the end, there will be plenty of horses looking for the stable and a good rest. On top is the Peter Gelagotis gelding Grey Khan (no.6), who has been running quite consistently throughout his campaign. The 2kg claim of Laura Lafferty could prove the difference in what is an open race. Flag Edition (no.1), Skyt (no.2) and Wil John (no.3) are the top three in the weights, and they will prove stiff competition considering they have been in tougher races recently and all have in-form jockeys on board.
Arlark Mofeed @ $21 – BEST VALUE
Almost half the field in this 3YO Fillies race are debutants, and it is only the Price & Kent Jr-trained Annavisto (no.2) of the unraced brigade that would attract any interest from punters. Of the rest, only two have been on wet tracks in the past in Amateurish (no.1) and Arlark Mofeed (no.3). The latter is one to have a bit of a play on at juicy each-way odds, as the Stokes-trained filly has run in the money on both starts back from a spell. That includes a last-start second on a heavy track at Moe. This is a hard one to pick, as there aren’t too many chances outside of the favourite, Annavisto.
Not A Zak @ $2.60
Not A Zak started this spaced-out campaign running 1.5L in second behind the emerging superstar Cherry Tortoni at Sale and has been quite consistent since. Jumping from the widest barrier, expect Craig Williams to settle the Warren & Krongold gelding in a forward position and dictate terms to his liking. Obvious dangers come from Vainly (no.4), who just missed last start at Geelong and gets the blinkers on, and the Richard Laming debutante Feminine Mystique (no.7) with Damien Oliver on board after a solid jumpout.
Mysterious Art @ $7.50
Outside of the last three emergencies, all runners are on debut for Race 4 at Mornington over 1000m. With two scratched already, locally trained favourite All Stardom (no.10) gets a start with Willow on board. However, it is the second emergency, Mysterious Art (no.11), that gets the nod here. Back out of metropolitan races from his last campaign, the three-year-old colt may find this a touch more to his liking.
Monetizing @ $3.30
The opening leg of the quaddie looks a race in two. We have settled on the second in the market, Monetizing, who has the ‘Wizard of the West’, William Pike, booked in for his only ride of the day. The four-year-old mare was a big-priced runner last start in the Listed Denise Joy Stakes at Rosehill back in May and was far from disgraced when leading. Expect to see Pike use barrier one to his advantage, settling on the speed and proving too hard to catch. Cliffs of Belaura (no.3) looks the hardest to beat, fresh off a 22-week break.
Dratini @ $9
A super-consistent midweek racer or a money muncher? We’re not sure how to place Lake’s Folly (no.6), but many punters will vote the latter for a horse with one win and four placings from six starts this campaign. If it is a leaders’ day, then the five-year-old gelding Dratini (no.5) will prove hard to catch. He should keep the tempo nice and genuine with apprentice Alexandra Bryan on board with her 2kg claim. Dangers come from Zipping Boy (no.9), an impressive last-start winner on the Pakenham synthetic; and The Gauch (no.8), who is yet to run out of the top two in his three career starts. This is a good little race for the second leg of the quaddie.
Albarado @ $4.20
A tricky Class 1 greets us for the penultimate race on the card with not much separating the top three in the market. Third in the betting is Albarado (no.8), who was scratched from the Listed McKenzie Stakes before the abandonment of the Moonee Valley meeting on Saturday. The three-year-old colt holds nominations for the Caulfield Guineas and Cox Plate, and this looks like the springboard needed for the Busuttin & Young runner. Obvious danger comes from the Waterhouse & Bott-trained Mensa Missile (no.2), who will settle up on the speed from the good draw. If the Mitch Freedman-trained Zorro’s Dream (no.4) can find a place in the pack after drawing the car park, he will fight out the finish with the other two favourites.
Run Walrus Run @ $4.40
A progressive four-year-old gelding leads the market for the final race of the day at Mornington. Run Walrus Run (no.7) is poised to get an economical run just off the speed, which looks the place to be with the likes of Surreal Image (no.2), Vladivostok (no.3) and outsider Without Excuse (no.12) set to battle it out for the early going. With Craig Newitt on board, Run Walrus Run looks the play in the closer.
R5: 3-5-9
R6: 3-5-8-9
R7: 1-2-4-8
R8: 2-3-7-12
$192 for 100%