Makybe Diva vs. Phar Lap in the greatest Melbourne Cup ever run
THE world’s best stayers have all converged for the $1 million Staying Legends Final at Flemington this Saturday and the bookmakers believe it will be a match-race between two champions of the turf.
A full field of 16 runners have been accepted for the 3200m contest, but all eyes will be on the Harry Telford-trained Phar Lap and the Lee Freedman-trained Makybe Diva.
Both runners have galvanised racing in Australia with Phar Lap winning one Melbourne Cup and Makybe Diva pulling off a unprecedented three consecutive cups. The winner of this race will surely hold the mantle of world’s greatest ever stayer and it all happens this Saturday at Flemington.
Races labelled as “match races” can often result in a big boilover, and this field certainly presents some big dangers to the two favourites, but it would take a mammoth effort to beat Phar Lap or Makybe Diva and we’ll look at which runner will come out on top.
Staying Legends Final betting market
1. Phar Lap – $1.80
2. Rising Fast – $7.50
3. Rain Lover – $10
4. Piping Lane – $15
5. Think Big – $9.50
6. Van der Hum – $18
7. Kiwi – $24
8. Might And Power – $6.50
9. Shocking – $28
10. Prince Of Penzance – $76
11. Makybe Diva – $2.20
12. Light Fingers – $40
13. Ethereal – $11
14. Jezabeel – $19
15. Let’s Elope – $9.00
16. Empire Rose – $60
Bookmakers opened Phar Lap and Makybe Diva at $2.00, but the majority of the money has come for the two-time Cox Plate-winner Phar Lap. It has subsequently dropped to odds on at $1.80, which is a touch short for a race containing so many superstars, but punters believe there is only one main danger so the price is right.
We thought Makybe Diva would get a little more respect from punters having won three Melbourne Cups, but that just means we’re now getting a better price for the best staying mare of all time. The 10-time group 1 winner has been running well leading into this and we know it excels at the 3200m distance.
Other runners supported at value odds have been Might And Power at $6.50 after opening at $8.50. It will likely head forward and give them something to chase, so punters are including it in their selections as a saver bet. Also well favoured is Let’s Elope which gets in with a light weight and could provide some value for place punters.
Not fancied in the betting is both Shocking ($28) and Prinze Of Penzance ($76). The recent Melbourne Cup winners haven’t raced well since their big victories, but they could over-perform again and shock the two favourites.
Like most punters, we think the Staying Legends Final will be a race in two. We can see Phar Lap and Makybe Diva clearing out down the lengthy Flemington straight and it will surely be a screaming match between punters that have taken the shorts with bookmakers.
Both horses have had great careers, but we have a strong claim as to why punters might have the odds around the wrong way.
Which horse is better – Phar Lap or Makybe Diva?
Phar Lap has had a stellar career with 37 wins coming from only 51 starts and its group 1 wins include the Melbourne Cup, Cox Plate and both the AJC Derby and Victoria Derby.
It has already been inducted into both the Australian and New Zealand Racing Hall of Fame and it is looking to cement its status as the best stayer of all time, but can it topple Makybe Diva?
Its recent form would suggest it can. Phar Lap has won its last two starts with a win coming at the two mile distance and it has beaten some handy runners in doing so. It won by two lengths last time out, beating race rivals Rising Fast and Piping Lane. This is another rise in class, but Phar Lap is one of the toughest horses around and it rarely gives in to a challenge.
Our only problem with punting on Phar Lap is the short odds on offer. It hasn’t paid higher than $2 in its last 22 races and having not won or placed on nine occasions, that has hurt the pockets of many punters. Bookmakers have it at $1.80 for this which is very short and we believe punters will prefer to add it into their multi-bets.
There is no doubting Phar Lap’s ability as a stayer and it could easily beat this field without Makybe Diva by three lengths, but the younger rival is knocking on the door of Phar Lap’s kingdom.
Makybe Diva rattled off three consecutive Melbourne Cups and that’s not an easy task. Many pundits have questioned the quality of opposition during those wins, but all you can do is win and it did that in fine style. Add a Cox Plate to the mix and Makybe Diva is showing its versatility.
It has the ability to sit off the pace and pick up its rivals nearing the turn, much like Phar Lap, which will make the their positions in the race an important factor. Makybe Diva has drawn barrier 12 with Phar Lap receiving barrier three, so we’ll likely see the diva drop back and stalk Phar Lap heading into the Flemington straight.
The turn-of-foot edge resides with Makybe Diva and with the likes of Might And Power in the field, the pace should be on from the word go. This will allow Makybe Diva to find gaps through the field or simply come around runners, whereas Phar Lap might get trapped along the inside.
Phar Lap vs. Makybe Diva verdict
Makybe Diva has two things going for it. The first is that it has younger legs and that’s an important factor in a staying race. Secondly, Makybe Diva is paying $2.20 and you don’t often get an above odds-on price for a horse of that quality.
Look for Makybe Diva to settle near the tail of the field before starting its move around the 1000m mark. Phar Lap will try look for runs on the inside, but we believe it won’t have the pace to go with Makybe Diva’s strong finishing burst.
For the place money we like Kiwi at $4.50 which could get onto the back of Makybe Diva and rattle into third position.