Group 1 T.J. Smith Stakes betting guide, form, odds and race tips

T.J. Smith Stakes

BETTING on the T.J. Smith Stakes has also been popular for punters and given the past winners of the sprinting feature, it’s not hard to see why.

The T.J. Smith Stakes attracts Australia’s best sprinters to Randwick during The Championships and past winners include two-time winners Chautauqua and Black Caviar, Takeover Target and Apache Cat.

That’s some history to live up to and this year a field of 15 will endeavour to win the $2.5 million group one weight-for-age affair.

There are multiple winning chances in the 2017 T.J. Smith Stakes, but we have found the best value tips for the race which is set to excite punters on day one of The Championships this Saturday.

Palmerbet betting

2017 T.J. Smith Stakes betting market

1. Chautauqua – $4.60
2. Malaguerra – $10
3. Terravista – $18
4. Rebel Dane – $41
5. Japonisme – $26
6. Fell Swoop – $16
7. Spieth – $8.50
8. Voodoo Lad – $16
9. Rock Magic – $26
10. Target In Sight – $81
11. Tivaci – $18
12. English – $10
13. Astern – $6
14. Russian Revolution – $7
15. Derryn – $61

There hasn’t been much change in the betting market over the course of this week. Two-time defending champion Chautauqua has firmed in from $4.80 to $4.60, but there hasn’t been any noteworthy moves.

Talented three-year-olds Astern and Russian Revolution have stayed rock solid in the market, which is surprising given the support the younger horses usually attract.

Punters are getting great prices for value runners Malaguerra, Terravista and Fell Swoop, which are all quoted at $10 or above.

Top pick – Astern

It won’t be easy to win a T.J. Smith Stakes fresh up, but Astern isn’t your average thoroughbred.

The John O’Shea-trained three-year-old won the Group 1 Golden Rose last campaign before charged home behind Russian Revolution in the Roman Consul.

It fought well behind Flying Artie in the Coolmore Stud Stakes in October, but it does its best racing on this track and fresh up.

The son of Medaglia D’oro is unbeaten in three first-up starts which is a lethal record and punters know O’Shea will have it ready to fire for this target.

Two of its five career wins have come at Randwick and it has shown in the past that wet tracks are easily handled. It has won both starts on a slow track and although conditions might be more extreme this Saturday, it should get through it well.

James Doyle takes over the riding duties from James McDonald and he’s riding at an international level since arriving in Australia.

Astern is currently +500 at Sportsbet and it should give punters a good sight.

Next best – Terravista

Punters are getting a serious price for a gelding which won the Group 1 Lightning Stakes only two starts back.

The seven-year-old is an 11-time winner with plenty of class and we’re prepared to forgive its most recent run when finishing 12th in the Newmarket Handicap.

It returns to Randwick where it has won five of its eight starts and it will enjoy having the sting out of the ground. The Joe Pride-trained gelding is a three-time winner on rain-affected ground and the more it rains the better its chances become.

We accept that it’s not the most consistent horse in the field, which can drive punters crazy, but the +1700 on offer at Ladbrokes.com.au is a value price and we think it’s at great value.

Must include – Chautauqua

We didn’t want to label Chautauqua as one of the main winning chances because it has yet to show us its best form this campaign.

The Hawkes-trained sprinter simply hasn’t been the same horse at its last five starts and they even tried running it over the unsuitable 1500m distance.

It reverts back to a distance that it has won seven races at and although it has never won on a heavy track, it has won twice on a slow surface.

Chautauqua is a must include because of its reputation. The six-year-old has won on the world stage in Hong Kong, which makes it an automatic threat and the $4.60 odds is generous given that it ran as a $9 chance against Winx in the George Ryder.

It was never going to win that race, but this will suit nicely and we expect jockey Tommy Berry to tail the field before searching for a run in the straight. If that run comes it could finish over the top of them, but it might give some talented runners a big head start.

It goes into the mix at $4.60, but we wouldn’t take anything shorter than $4.

T.J. Smith Stakes long shot tip – Tivaci

The flashing light was shining brightly for Tivaci in the Newmarket Handicap last start when it made impressive last ground behind Redkirk Warrior.

The four-year-old didn’t have much room to move at the top of the straight, but it should be able to find the gaps around Randwick with Damien Oliver in the saddle.

Its win prior to the Newmarket came in the Kensington Stakes where it ran a quick time over 1000m and the former New Zealand runner should have no problems with running in the wet.

It’s rare to see a son of High Chaparral contesting sprint races, considering it ran over 2000m in the Mackinnon Stakes last spring, but it’s clearly better suited to sprinting and the odds of +1700 at Sportsbet is worth taking.

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