Group 1 Stradbroke Handicap betting guide, odds and free tips
BETTING on the Stradbroke Handicap has been tough over the past few years, but we think the 2016 edition is more clear cut with only a handful of winning chances.
The Group 1 is the highlight race of the 2016 Brisbane winter carnival and it carries a big prize purse of $1.5 million. The 1400m feature is largely dictated by the handicap weight scale and that makes for an exciting race.
There are some quality horses carrying luxury weights and those are the horses we have targeted as good winning chances. The full field of 18 is expected to run so open an account with Sportsbet.com.au and cash in on its Stradbroke Handicap special.
2016 Stradbroke Handicap betting guide
1. Black Heart Bart: $6
Trainer: Darren Weir
Jockey: Brad Rawiller
Form: 922121
Black Heart Bart will carry top weight of 58kg which will make it tough, but it brings plenty of class to the field. The five-year-old is a 12-time winner and a win here would take it past the $2 million stakes earnings barrier.
It is coming off a massive win in The Goodwood at Morphettville and its run prior for second in the All Aged Stakes was gusty as it carried 59kg. There’s no doubting its ability and punters have backed it in form $6.50 to $6. Don’t discount anything trained by Darren Weir at this point in time.
2. Delectation: $19
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: James McDonald
Form: x59784
This enigmatic runner has been a punters nightmare this season, but it continues to run good enough races to gather support. This time around punters have let it go and the $19 available represents good value for a four-year-old which needs time to warm up.
Jockey James McDonald sticks with it which is always a good sign and even though it’s drifting in the market, it’s the type of horse which could cause the boil over.
3. Malaguerra: $8
Trainer: Lee and Anthony Freedman
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Form: 1×1161
This promising gelding has a professional record of 10 wins from 18 starts and it returned to form with a last start win in the Group 1 BTC Cup at Doomben. The four-year-old turned around a poor performance in the All Aged Stakes to score in the last bound and it drops down 2.5kg for this run.
The son of Magnus has form on all track surfaces so the conditions won’t be an issue and it has won twice over this distance. Whether it has matured enough to win at this level, we’re not sure, but the $8 is a good each way price and it has plenty more upside than many of its rivals.
4. Music Magnate: $10
Trainer: Bjorn Baker
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Form: 11×121
Bjorn Baker shoots for another group 1 after Music Magnate scored the Doomben 10,000 late last month. The improving gelding had been set for the Stradbroke Handicap all season so winning last start was a bonus and considering it defeated current race-favourite Azkadellia, that bodes well for this.
Followers of Music Magnate would have been happy to see a double-figure price being offered and that’s great value for one of the form runners in the race. Winning back-to-back group 1 race isn’t easy, especially for a maturing horse, but Baker has the magic touch and could pull it off.
5. Azkadellia: $3.80
Trainer: Ciaron Maher
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Form: 212312
Ciaron Maher is looking to go back-to-back in the Stradbroke after winning with Srikandi in 2015 and he considers Azkadellia to be a much better winning prospect.
The four-year-old mare wasn’t disgraced when second behind Music Magnate last start and it’s much better suited with the extra distance. It is suited by the handicap conditions as it only has to carry 54.5kg and Damien Oliver returns to the saddle. Expect the mare to sit near the tail of the field and unleash with a big run down the outside of the field.
It deserves to be favourite and the $3.80 is a fair price considering its credentials. We are expecting the current price to drop so get the $3.80 at Sportsbet while it’s still available.
6. Charlie Boy: $31
Trainer: Peter and Paul Snowden
Jockey: Tommy Berry
Form: 0x1603
The betting picture for Charlie Boy has changed significantly throughout the week. It opened at $26, drifted right out to $51, but came back to $31 where it sits currently. Punters should be concerned that it has won only four times from 26 starts, but it might enjoy the change of track.
It finished off well behind Music Magnate last start and if it can recapture its best form, it could fill one of the placings at $8.50.
7. Under The Louvre: $13
Trainer: Robert Smerdon
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Form: 264×32
Punters know what they’re getting with Under The Louvre, but that doesn’t make life easier on our betting accounts. The five-year-old will get back which is guaranteed and it will be putting in the big bounds late.
It didn’t have the best of runs in the straight when second behind Black Heart Bart in The Goodwood and with another 200m it would have likely run it down. It’s a dangerous prospect down in the weights at 54.5kg and it’s one of our value picks at $13 with Crownbet.com.au.
8. Sacred Star: $81
Trainer: Tony Pike
Jockey: Vinnie Colgan
Form: x40410
Sacred Star didn’t fire in the BTC Cup last start and it’s hard to tip it based on that run. It looked good winning the Darley Plate at Ellerslie in New Zealand prior, but that form wouldn’t hold up at this level and with an inconsistent form line, it can’t be trusted.
Dropping down in weight will help its chances, but the $81 quote is indicative of its chances.
9. Big Money: $81
Trainer: Rodney Northam
Jockey: Robert Thompson
Form: x33106
The six-year-old is always a danger of causing an upset. It has won 10 from 24 starts with six placings and still remains an $81 chance in this. It is facing a much tougher task here, but it has a win and a placing at Eagle Farm and that experience will count for something.
A slow track would have brought its price down a touch, but it could be worth a nibble at the massive price of $81.
10. Hooked: $41
Trainer: John Thompson
Jockey: Tye Angland
Form: 1900×7
It’s hard to find a case for Hooked in this. The five-year-old won the Tramway Stakes at Randwick last September, but has done nothing since. It finished last in the George Main and it faded poorly in its three runs since.
To have any hope in this it would need a soft, uncontested lead, but that’s unlikely to happen and we can’t see it winning at the big odds.
11. Charmed Harmony: $67
Trainer: John Sadler
Jockey: Chad Schofield
Form: x96210
If Charmed Harmony can recover after a tough run in the BRC Sprint, it has a chance to cause an upset at $67. The six-year-old will look to push forward from barrier 15 and with only 53kg on its back, that shouldn’t be a problem.
It finished second behind Black Heart Bart over 1400m at Caulfield earlier this year and the disparity in their respective prices is unjust. Suggesting it will win is a step too far, but if it gets the luck needed, it could lead them all the way.
Worth a sneaky bet at $67 with Bet365.com.au.
12. Counterattack: $6.50
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Joao Moreira
Form: 3×3521
Counterattack was a stylish winner of the Fred Best Classic last start and there’s no reason it couldn’t win back-to-back. The three-year-old finished second in the Arrowfield Stakes behind Japonisme which should be a good form guide and it’s an adaptable type which can sit anywhere in the field.
Getting champion jockey Joao Moreira in the saddle can’t hurt and although his record in Australia isn’t overly impressive, a big win isn’t far away. It opened at $6 and has drifted out slightly, but it still remains a top winning hope.
13. Previous Gem: $41
Trainer: Henry Dwyer
Jockey: Tim Clark
Form: 10×211
Comes into this having won back-to-back races which included the Robert Sangster at Morphettville last start. It has won three times over this distance and its best form clearly comes on good tracks. If the forecast holds true, it should get a track to suit and we can’t rule it out of calculations.
It comes into this in great form and after opening up at $67, some savvy punters jumped in early and forced bookmakers to shorten its price. Looks a lightweight chance.
14. Two Blue: $81
Trainer: Kristen Buchanan
Jockey: Tegan Harrison
Form: x61249
Has drifted significantly in the betting throughout the week and we’d have to agree with punters. There has been no support for the seven-year-old mare which finished last in the Doomben 10,000. It did perform well for fourth in the BTC Cup, but this is a stretch too far.
Its chances are much like its odds, drifting.
15. Kaepernick: $11
Trainer: Team Hawkes
Jockey: Christian Reith
Form: 0130×1
The four-year-old son of Fastnet Rock was a dominant winner at Scone last start, but faces a big rise in class. It put over two lengths over a quality sprinting field last start and whilst that win was impressive, facing some sturdy handicap horses is another obstacle.
It has worked nicely in preparation for this which has pleased punters who can still get double-figure odds. It needs luck from barrier 17, but if the breaks go its way, a win wouldn’t surprise. Follow any positive market moves.
16. Artlee: $21
Trainer: Todd Willan
Jockey: Mitchell Bell
Form: 9×9373
Artlee couldn’t have been more disappointing last start when it over-raced to finish third in the BRC Sprint. It had a good trip in transit, but failed to capitalise and the inside draw might work against it here. It’s a gelding which likes open running and it’s going to get boxed away from barrier one.
There’s no doubting its ability, but $21 is far too short at group 1 level. Looking elsewhere.
17. Takedown: $19
Trainer: Gary Moore
Jockey: Jason Taylor
Form: x24312
Tried hard in the Fred Best Classic behind Counterattack and it looked good winning the Gold Coast Guineas prior. It would take a mammoth effort to win at this level, but it gets in at the extreme weight of 50.5kg and that brings it into contention.
It will likely fire towards the lead and it could take some running down. $19 is a fair each way price at Sportsbet.
18. The Virginian: $101
Trainer: Toby Edmonds
Jockey: Rosie Myers
Form: 161
Twice a winner from three starts and the wins have been impressive. It ran on behind Takedown in the Gold Coast Guineas, but this is a step too far, too soon. It shouldn’t be contesting this level and will likely run down the track.