Free tips, form and odds for Group one racing at Caulfield
IT’S group one racing aplenty this Saturday at Caulfield with the Caulfield Stakes, Thousand Guineas and Caulfield Guineas taking centre stage.
The incredible 10-race betting card is what punters dream of during the Melbourne spring carnival and it’s certainly one of the best days for punting that we’ve seen in some time.
With The Everest running in Sydney, the focus has been taken off this meeting, but it’s top quality across the card and the value on offer from bookmakers is great for punters.
The first race is the Debutante Stakes at 12:20 and Neds will give you up to $20 back in bonus bets if your horse doesn’t win the race – it’s that simple, so sign up for that great deal and up to $500 in bonus bets.
Race 1 – Debutante Stakes (1000m)
Coronel is on debut for Tony Vasil after running well in a recent jumpout. The two-year-old by Host isn’t bred to be anything special early in its career, but punters were impressed with its work at Caulfield and it has attracted plenty of attention in the market. It’s currently a $4.80 chance and is worth considering.
Qafila is a trials winner for Lindsay Park and it will have its supporters here. The Not a Single Doubt filly sprinted well to win by one length at Wodonga and that should be a good form pointer for this. $5 suggests that it will run here.
Race 1 tip: Qafila to win ($5) at Neds.com.au
Race 2 – Thoroughbred Club Stakes (1200m)
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Jorda looked good at its first couple of starts, but there was little to like last time out. The James Cummings-trained runner finished eighth at Flemington last start behind Fox Swift and punters will be hoping it shows the same form which saw it run third behind Pariah at Rosehill. It gets the inside barrier which helps so consider.
True Excelsior battled on well for third in the Champagne Stakes at Moonee Valley last start behind Houtzen. It also ran very well at Flemington in the same race as Jorda and that appears to be the best form guide for this race. It’s likely that True Excelsior will settle just off the pace and launch late.
Race 2 tip: True Excelsior to win ($6.50) at Unibet.com.au
Race 3 – SWP Plate (1200m)
Legless Veuve couldn’t have been more impressive in defeat at Caulfield last start. The Stuart Webb-trained four-year-old was flying home late behind Savanna Amour and that form should stack up nicely for this. It has raced well at this track in the past and it’s long overdue a win. We’ve seen better fields on a premier day and Legless Veuve could take advantage at $3.30.
Miss Gunpowder is lethal when fresh up having won three of its five fresh up starts. The Lindsay Park-trained five-year-old looked good when winning the Hinkler Stakes at Doomben in the winter and it didn’t get much room in the Tatt’s Tiara. It typically runs well on this track and it should provide the challenge to the favourite.
Race 3 tip: Legless Veuve to win ($3.30) at CrownBet.com.au
Race 4 – Herbert Power Stakes (2400m)
Aloft was a game winner fresh up at Flemington before running well in the JRA Trophy last start. The imported son of Galileo has some big race finishes to its name, including a placing in the Chairman’s last campaign. It has drawn wide which shouldn’t matter over this distance and the light weight of 55.5kg helps its cause.
Foundry has won only three from 16, but that includes a last start win in the Group 1 Metropolitan. Another imported son of Galileo, Foundry has been a consistent customer throughout its Australian career and it has often been underrated by bookmakers. It gets into this race well in the weights and the $5.50 looks like good value.
Race 4 tip: Foundry to win ($5.50) at Neds.com.au
Race 5 – Weekend Hustler Stakes (1400m)
Oregon’s Day can’t catch a break with receiving wide draws. The Mick Price-trained runner has drawn 14, 9, 9 and 15 at its last four draws and it gets barrier 14 for this. That will likely force it to settle back in the field again and it will be relying on plenty of luck, but it’s talented on its day and $6.50 for the win represents good each way value.
Fast ‘n’ Rocking ran a solid race for third in the Testa Rossa Stakes last start and although it’s past its best form, this isn’t the strongest field. The Lindsay Park-trained seven-year-old will be having its 26th start at Caulfield and that experience will take it a long way. There has been some interest in the betting at $9.50 so consider here.
Race 5 tip: Oregon’s Day to place ($2.40) at Neds.com.au
Race 6 – Thousand Guineas (1600m)
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Shoals has been an impressive type since winning its maiden in February. The Anthony Freedman-trained filly has won four of its five career starts and its only defeat came at the hands of Booker last start. It will wear blinkers for this run which should help it settle better and it’s currently paying nice odds of $4.
Alizee is the class Sydney runner of the field having won the Tea Rose Stakes and Group 1 Flight Stakes at its last two starts. Granted, the Flight Stakes was only a moderate field, but it powered to the line in impressive fashion and there was a lot to like about that performance. It’s currently at short odds which could be dangerous territory.
Race 6 tip: Alizee to win ($2.20) at CrownBet.com.au
Race 7 – Caulfield Stakes (2000m)
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Hartnell has been beaten by some nice types this campaign, but the rise to 2000m should help its chances. The Cummings-trained stayer was beaten by New Zealand runners Humidor and Bonneval at its last two starts, but we weren’t fans of either ride and a change in rider might help here. It’s drifting in the market to $3.40 after opening at $3.20, but consider for win options.
Bonneval is the form runner of the field having defeated the likes of Hartnell last start. The Baker/Forsman-trained mare is a multiple Oaks winner which continues to rise through the ranks. It has any amount of ability and will only continue to get better this campaign, so it’s no wonder to see punters come for it at $2.80.
Race 7 tip: Bonneval to win ($2.80) at Neds.com.au
Race 8 – Caulfield Guineas (1600m)
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Catchy is the current second favourite at $4.60 which is a touch surprising. The Blue Diamond winner has had plenty of experience at Caulfield which is one of the hardest tracks to adjust to in Australia. There was nothing wrong with its placing last start and it gets in well on the weights and it won’t have to do much from the barrier of three. It has a turn-of-foot better than most in this field so watch for it late.
Royal Symphony drifted from $2.20 to $4.20 in the futures market after its extremely average run last start. The talented colt ended its run of four unbeaten efforts when running fourth in the Guineas Prelude and it clearly didn’t handle the track or the front-running pace of the race. The rise in distance helps, but it won’t want to give them a big head start because they’re too classy.
Race 8 tip: Catchy to win ($4.80) at Sportsbet.com.au
Race 9 – Toorak Handicap (1600m)
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Tom Melbourne is a horse punters hate to love, but it keeps drawing us back in. The always-consistent seven-year-old has been unfairly criticised this campaign because it continues to run second, but how many horses can say they ran Happy Clapper to under a length on multiple occasions? It might not win as often as punters would like, but it’s an each way machine.
Egg Tart is paying nice odds at $6 and punters will likely jump all over that. The Waller-trained stayer missed its last run due to an eye infection, but it gets in perfectly on the weights here at 53.5kg and that will allow it to show a turn-of-foot. It will likely settle off the pace in the big field and come with a searching run.
Race 9 tip: Tom Melbourne to place ($2.50) at Unibet.com.au
Race 10 – Schillaci Stakes (1100m)
Sheidel is a quality sprinter which should have appreciated two runs back from a spell. The six-year-old is a winner of 15 races with three coming at this track and it will likely set the pace over this distance. It hasn’t won for awhile now, but it’s due and it’s the favourite for a reason.
Missrock is on the quick back up after running ninth last start. The Robbie Laing-trained mare wasn’t suited by landing on the speed last start and it’s much better getting some cover and striking late. That could be on the cards from barrier six so punters shouldn’t discount it at $17.
Race 10 tip: Missrock to win ($17) at Bet365.com