Form & free tips for Aussie chances at Sha Tin for the QEII Cup
ONE of Australia’s best up-and-coming stayers will lead a talented contingent of Aussie thoroughbreds looking to stake their claim at Hong Kong’s QEII Cup on Sunday.
Former Australasian stayer Werther is in the action in the big race and Australia’s best chance at a victory. The Hong Kong Derby winner is well-favoured in the market, which also features Rising Romance and Highland Reel.
In this preview we’ll also provide futures odds to the two coming races at Sha Tin next week.
The dual TJ Smith Stakes winner, Chautauqua, will line up in the Group 1 Chairman’s Sprint Prize on Sunday, May 1 with fellow Australian sprinter Buffering. Chautauqua is coming off a scintillating win at The Championships and the bookmakers have given it full respect in the market – it will start as the $2.25 favourite.
Buffering won on the international stage in its last start in Dubai and generous odds of $9 are still available with Bet365.com.au.
Australia will be represented by Bow Creek in the Group 1 Champions Mile on Sunday, May 1. The former European now races in Australia, but it isn’t expected to challenge the likes of Maurice and Giant Treasure.
Find all your Hong Kong betting markets at Sportsbet.com.au, which offer futures markets all year long.
Group 1 QEII Cup analysis and tips – April 24
Werther is a Tavistock gelding, which had 10 starts in New Zealand for three wins before moving to Australia where it won the Eagle Farm Cup. Now with John Moore, the well-bred five-year-old comes into this having won the Group 1 Hong Kong Derby at its most recent outing and it has the ability to make the step up to this class. It has a place percentage of 82.35 which bodes well for punters wanting to get a better chance of making money, but the $4.40 is a fair price for the win.
John Moore also lines up fan-favourite Designs On Rome. The five-year-old has won nine from 21 starts and it usually has its fair share of tote support. 17 of its 19 races have come at stakes level which is outstanding and it comes into this having finished off well for third in the Chairman’s Trophy. It needed more ground and it gets it here, so beware of the local hero which looks an obvious winning chance at $4.80.
Lovely Day opened as the favourite with Bet365.com.au, but is now on the third line of betting at $5 with Sportsbet.com.au. The Japanese horse finished third in the Group 1 Japan Cup three starts back and it hasn’t been too far away in strong fields since. It brings in classic form with a win in the Group 1 Tenno Sho last year and despite having had only one run in 2016, it should strip fit. Travel is a concern, but beating Japanese stayers proves very tough to do.
Highland Reel is still only a four-year-old which has plenty of big race experience under its belt. The Aidan O’Brien-trained runner ran third in the Cox Plate in Australia which was followed by a win in the Group 1 Hong Kong Vase and then it travelled to Dubai where it ran fourth in the Group 1 Dubai Sheema Classic behind the world-rated superstar Postponed. There is plenty to like about Highland Reel heading towards the upcoming Royal Ascot carnival and it looks a nice chance in this at $5.50.
Punting tip: Designs On Rome to win ($4.80) at Sportsbet.com.au
Group 1 Chairman’s Sprint Prize tips – May 1
Chautauqua is now rated the world’s fourth-best thoroughbred after winning the Group 1 T.J. Smith Stakes at The Championships last start. The six-year-old has won over $5.5 million in career earnings and it already has four group 1 races to its name. Running on from the back of the field isn’t ideal in Hong Kong this time of the year, but the grey looks a freakish talent and the punters agree. They have backed the Australian champion into $2.25, which looks a fair price.
New Zealand ex-pat Paul O’Sullivan lines up the New Zealand-bred Aerovelocity, which has a 50 percent winning strike rate. The eight-year-old is having just its 19th start, but it’s coming off a stellar win in the Group 1 Centenary Sprint Cup at Sha Tin, which is generally a good form guide for this. It paid $7.50 when winning last start and it is much shorter at $4 for this. The son of Pins likes to stalk the pace and it could prove tough to run down in the straight.
Gold-Fun is a seven-year-old gelding for Richard Gibson which ran well over 1400m last start and the distance here should suit better. It won the Group 2 Jockey Club Sprint four starts ago when beating race rivals Peniaphobia and Not Listenin’tome, which appears a good form line coming into this. It’s currently paying $7 with bookmakers.
Buffering is the second Australian chance at $9. It comes into this having won at Dubai last start and its most recent form in Australia includes a win in the Winterbottom Stakes and the Magic Millions Plate. It has experience running in Hong Kong when it finished sixth behind Aerovelocity in the Hong Kong Sprint, but leaders are best suited this time of the year so expect Buffering to get the best run in transit.
Punting tip: Aerovelocity to win ($4) at Bet365.com.au
Group 1 Champions Mile odds and picks – May 1
Maurice is the clear-cut punters elect at $2 after winning its last four starts. The Japanese star looked brilliant winning the Group 1 Hong Kong Mile last start and another huge performances is on the cards. It took its time to fully mature into the quality animal it is and a race rival will need to produce a big effort to topple the favourite at Sha Tin on Sunday.
Giant Treasure has the home track advantage and will be looking to turn the tables on Maurice after it finished second behind it in the Hong Kong Mile. It has had two runs since for a win in the Group 1 Stewards’ Cup before running a disappointing ninth in the Hong Kong Gold Cup. Punters will need to overlook that run, but based on its form prior it could test the favourite at $4.
Bow Creek comes over from Australia for Godolphin after finishing fifth in the Group 1 Doncaster Mile behind Winx. The European import won only one race in Australia, but it did finish second behind Turn Me Loose in the Group 2 Crystal Mile. It is representing Australia, but it would need to produce a career-best performance to topple Maurice. $19 looks spot on for long-shot punters.
Punting tip: Maurice to win ($2) at Bet365.com.au