Flemington betting free tips, odds and form, Saturday August 12
THE Aurie’s Star Handicap has attracted a quality field at Flemington this Saturday and we have free tips, updated markets and form.
The $150,000 feature features Group 1 Australian Guineas winner Hey Doc, Group 2 Sunline Stakes winner I Am A Star and also Cannyescent which has won half of its 14 career starts to date.
There has been some interesting betting moves with Hey Doc drifting from $5 to $7 and big money coming for Grande Rosso ($10 into $5.50. It looks to be one of the most competitive races leading into spring and the winner looks nicely placed for the remainder of the season.
Fields have held up well this Saturday at Flemington and punters can get the best odds with Topbetta.com.au which has a great deposit deal for new punters.
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Race 1 – VRC Member Raymond Ali Handicap (1400m)
Aljawzaa was desperately unlucky to not win at Caulfield last start and it can make amends here. The Lindsay Park-trained filly was held up for most of the straight and it did well to finish third. Its performances prior to that were solid and it has attracted plenty of interest in the betting at $3.90 after opening at $4.
Confluence did it tough last start at Caulfield, but it still managed to run second behind Shamport. The three-year-old by Denman has rattled off three consecutive second placings which can be a concern, but punters are getting a fair price of $5.50.
Race 1 tip: Aljawzaa to win ($3.90) at CrownBet.com.au
Race 2 – VRC Member Beverley Hogan Handicap (2530m)
Kilimanjaro is an imported runner for Robert Hickmott which was entitled to finish off its race better last start. The Derby Trial winner had solid form in Europe, but hasn’t yet hit its straps in Australia. It won’t get any easier than the field it faces here and it won’t have to work from the inside draw. Drifting in the market at $3.
Araldo Junior is a winner of six races from 23 starts and it looked good winning at Sunshine Coast by 2.8 lengths last start. The Michael Moroney-trained gelding has had success at this track and dropping back in distance might not be a bad thing. It has good staying ability and $6 is a good price.
Race 2 tip: Kilimanjaro to win ($3) at Ladbrokes.com.au
Race 3 – VRC Member Graeme McMenamin Handicap (1400m)
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Rich Luck knows how to win and it will love dropping in weight for this. The Matt Laurie-trained winner of five of its seven starts was a winner at Geelong to kick off its new campaign and that came easily. It drops in weight from 59.5kg to 54kg and that’s a dangerous weight for a speedy type. It loves this distance and could be the underrated type in this field.
Sovereign Nation is the current $2.50 favourite following a good showing behind Tshahitsi last start in the Winter Championship. The five-year-old has taken on some tough opposition in its time and it’s another well-weighted winning chance. The $2.50 is a touch on the short side.
Race 3 tip: Rich Luck to place ($1.75) at Topbetta.com.au
Race 4 – VRC Member William O’Grady Handicap (1700m)
Jaminzah finished off too well for them at Flemington last week and it could repeat the dose. The Chris Waller-trained four-year-old had a good trip in transit and pounced late to score over a similar field. It drops in weight to 54kg which is ideal and it’s the current $4 favourite.
Cosmic Lights is doing a good job at spending punters money, but we’ll give it one more chance. The Peter Morgan-trained gelding was flashing home in the Winter Championship last start, but it’s not the most lucky horse and it relies on that a lot. We’re not sure if the inside draw helps, but consider at $4.20.
Race 4 tip: Jaminzah to win ($4) at Sportsbet.com.au
Race 5 – VRC Member Mark Yound Handicap (1400m)
We’re not sure why O’Rachael continues to be ridden upside down, but it showed its best form in New Zealand when ridden on the speed. The Waller-trained four-year-old finished fourth in the NZ Breeders’ Stakes by leading, but it was dropped out the back last start at Caulfield. It’s a real chance if Waller changes the tactics.
Samovare has been well-backed in from $2.45 to $2.10 following a tidy first-up effort at Flemington. The Lindsay Park-trained mare came over from Perth with good form, including a win in the W.A. Champion Stakes and it tried hard behind Pedrena last start after over six months off. Second up can be tricky, but it deserves respect.
Race 5 tip: O’Rachael to win ($4.40) at CrownBet.com.au
Race 6 – VRC Member Joan Watson Handicap (1400m)
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I Boogi has been heavily backed from $5 into $4.20 after its fresh up win at Sandown. The Russell and Scott Cameron-trained gelding produced a big finish down the outside to win and despite not having form on this track, it was able to beat Ruthven three starts back and that form has been franked significantly. Respect its chances despite carrying a big weight.
Tahi has attracted attention at the bottom of the page and its form reads well. The four-year-old by O’Reilly scored easily on debut by over three lengths before running into the talented Hay Bale last start. It gets some weight relief via Ben Allen’s 1.5kg claim and the inside draw should see it land on the pace.
Race 6 tip: Tahi to win ($4.20) at Topbetta.com.au
Race 7 – Aurie’s Star Handicap (1200m)
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Flippant has been well-backed in from $6 to $4.60 after its good showing in the Ramornie Handicap. The five-year-old won its only start at Flemington which is a good sign for this and having a win down the straight is a key form guide. Not all horses handle running straight, but Flippant has proven that it has a turn-of-foot needed to win again.
Cannyescent is the new horse on the scene following four wins from its last five starts. The Lindsay Park-trained gelding has been working through the grades nicely and its win on this track last start showed some dominance. The query is running at this distance down the straight, but it gets in well on the weights and it can use the outside rail to its advantage.
Race 7 tip: Cannyescent to place ($2.10) at Bet365.com
Race 8 – VRC Member Doris Theuma Handicap (2000m)
Crocodile Rock showed its ability last campaign when winning two of its three starts. The six-year-old import came over from Europe with a couple of good runs under its belt and it has been unlucky to not be unbeaten in Australia. There’s plenty of staying talent to be shown, but this will be its toughest test to date. $3.10 with bookmakers.
Galaxy Raider is a two-win gelding from 16 starts which has been around the mark at its last three starts. It has placed at its last three starts and having another run at this distance should hold it in good stead. It should find cover from the wide draw and run well at odds of $5.50.
Race 8 tip: Crocodile Rock to win ($3.10) at Topbetta.com.au
Race 9 – VRC Member Charles White Handicap (1000m)
Runson has won five of its 12 starts with all five coming at this distance. The Corstens-trained gelding is a sprinting specialist, but it hasn’t won or placed in two starts down the Flemington straight. That is a concern, but it should be able to use the wide draw to its advantage and run well.
Oruju is a smokey at odds of $21. The Shawn Mathrick-trained gelding comes into this having won at Sale last start after leading throughout and it could turn around its poor form at Flemington. This is harder here, but the odds are appealing.
Race 9 tip: Oruju to place ($6) at CrownBet.com.au