Derby day at Flemington tips, form and odds, November 4
DERBY day kicks off the Melbourne Cup carnival in style and what a cracking nine-race card punters have to bet on.
The $1.5 million Victoria Derby is the feature race of the day, but the $1 million Kennedy Mile, Myer Classic, Coolmore Stud Stakes and the Lexus Stakes make it one of the best betting days of the year.
Racing on Saturday has Melbourne Cup, Emirates Stakes and Oaks ramifications, so punters should follow the form out of this meeting for the three remaining days of the carnival next week.
If you haven’t already, sign up with Neds.com.au for up to $500 in bonus bets which can be used on any race at Flemington this Saturday.
Race 1 – The Carbine Club Stakes (1600m)
Kaonic has looked impressive winning its last two in Sydney and it looks a handy stayer in the making. The Chris Waller-trained colt by Savabeel won in a rating 75-graded race last start, which isn’t incredible form, but it produced a big finish to score by two lengths over Luvaluva. Hugh Bowman will likely let it find its feet before making a run down the long Flemington straight.
Levendi was horribly unlucky to not finish closer in the Caulfield Guineas when it was trucking into the race nicely around the corner. The Pierro colt still produced a strong finish despite the interference and its form prior to that included wins over Sully and Snitzepeg. Bookmakers might not respect its chances, but we’re all over it.
Race 1 tip: Levendi to win at CrownBet.com.au
Race 2 – G.H. Mumm Wakeful Stakes (2000m)
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Rimraam battled on well behind Pinot last start and that form looks solid. The possible Oaks contender settled near the pace and continued to fight down the straight in the Ethereal Stakes at Caulfield. Flemington looks an ideal track for the daughter of Commands and we’re expecting bookmakers to have it safe in the market.
Bring Me Roses was an impressive winner of the Edward Manifold and the rise in distance looks perfect. The Tony McEvoy-trained filly is another well-backed in the Oaks next week and the well-bred daughter of High Chaparral looks a solid chance in both races. Drawing barrier 11 won’t be an issue as she’ll settle back in the run and finish strongly late.
Race 2 tip: Bring Me Roses to win at Neds.com.au
Race 3 – Skip Sprint (1100m)
Crystal Fountain is a winner of four from five starts and it battled on well for third last start at Geelong on Cup day. The Anthony Freedman-trained four-year-old strung four consecutive wins together before suffering its first defeat last start, but that came in a strong race and it looks a solid each way chance down in the weights at 55.5kg.
Sheidel was a significant class edge over this field and it’s well-weighted at 59kg. The six-year-old mare is a 15-time winner from 33 starts and it’s dropping back from taking on quality opposition in the Schillaci Stakes. Its lack of recent winning form is a problem, but the inside draw is ideal and she should be winning this.
Race 3 tip: Sheidel to win at Sportsbet.com.au
Race 4 – Lexus Stakes (2500m)
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Harlem has been a heavily-supported runner all season and expect nothing different here. The imported six-year-old for Lindsay Park would need to be winning the Lexus by a few lengths to be considered a Melbourne Cup hope, but it has the credentials. The worry is that its win this campaign came over 2000m and it has since only battled in two starts, but it did make up late ground in the Caulfield Cup which is a positive.
Alward was no match for Destiny’s Kiss at Randwick last start, but trainer Chris Waller is confident the import could sneak into the Melbourne Cup. The European-bred has won three of its last five starts in Sydney and he’s facing some seasoned professionals here, but watch for market support and bet accordingly.
Race 4 tip: Harlem to win at Neds.com.au
Race 5 – Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m)
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Viridine is an unbeaten colt for James Cummings and it looks one for the future. The three-year-old won the Heritage Stakes two starts back before winning the Roman Consul with ease over Single Bullet last start. Drawing the inside barrier probably won’t be a good thing down the Flemington straight, but he’s a top-notch colt which has many more wins in store before a lucrative stud career.
Jukebox has drawn just outside of Viridine in barrier three, but it has experience running down the Flemington straight. The son of Snitzel finished second behind Catchy in the Danehill Stakes in September and his subsequent run behind Formality in the Blue Sapphire was solid. This is another tough run for the colt, but consider in win options.
Race 5 tip: Viridine to win ($8.50) at Unibet.com.au
Race 6 – Myer Classic (1600m)
Silent Sedition is a six-time winner which has yet to win at Flemington, but it’s nearing peak fitness this campaign. The Andrew Noblet-trained five-year-old was a winner of the Group 1 William Reid at Moonee Valley in March and she has just needed time back in this campaign. Drawing barrier four is ideal and Katelyn Mallyon should be positive in the run.
Shoals has yet to finish worse than second in six starts to date and it fought on well behind Oaks favourite Aloisia last start. The Anthony Freedman-trained three-year-old is facing its toughest test to date by some margin, but carrying only 50kg has its advantages. She will likely try cross from the wide draw and kick strongly under the light weight.
Race 6 tip: Silent Sedition to win ($12) at CrownBet.com.au
Race 7 – Victoria Derby (2500m)
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Check out our full Victoria Derby preview here.
Race 8 – Kennedy Mile Handicap (1600m)
We’re not giving up on Tom Melbourne until he wins. The Waller-trained seven-year-old is an enigmatic type which finished second in four consecutive starts before running sixth in the Toorak Handicap last start. Dropping down in weight to 53.5kg with Flemington master Glen Boss in the saddle is going to help its chances and drawing barrier six will allow it to settle on the pace and give a strong kick. Keep the faith punters.
Tosen Stardom defeated a similar field in the Toorak last start and that form looks good for this. The former Japanese runner had been out of the winners circle for a long time, but class is permanent and it has that advantage over this field. Bookmakers should have it safe in the market, but he does give away some weight to nice types.
Race 8 tip: Tom Melbourne to place ($2.30) at Neds.com.au
Race 9 – Multiplier Stakes (1200m)
Ravi was a stylish winner of the Sheraco Stakes at Rosehill before running on well in the How Now Stakes at Caulfield last start. The Snowden-trained mare weaved through the field to finish just behind Savanna Amour and the running down the straight here should be ideal. It has drawn the rail so see how the rail is playing throughout the day.
Illustrious Lad ran second in the Schillaci Stakes behind Super Cash and that form should hold up well. The Peter Gelagotis-trained six-year-old has won twice at Flemington from seven starts and four of its nine career wins have come at this distance. Drawing barrier 10 looks perfect and there’s each way support at $6.
Race 9 tip: Ravi to win ($5.50) at CrownBet.com.au