Darley Kingsford-Smith Cup betting guide with form and tips
WE have sorted through the form of every runner in the Group 1 Darley Kingsford-Smith Cup in the hopes to find punters the best value for Saturday’s feature race.
The Kingsford-Smith Cup was formerly known as the BTC Cup, which was won by Black Caviar in 2011, and a quality field will line up in the 2017 edition.
Running for a stake of $700,000 at Eagle Farm, the sprinters are all seeking group one glory during the Brisbane winter carnival and we have a runner-by-runner guide with form, odds and free tips.
The race features multiple group one winner Black Heart Bart, Arrowfield Stakes winner Derryn and a host of other quality thoroughbreds which makes for a great betting field on Saturday.
Punters can get the best value with Ladbrokes.com.au which is offering enhanced odds for every runner in the field.
2017 Kingsford-Smith Cup betting market
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1. Black Heart Bart – $4
The Darren Weir-trained gelding is the class horse of the field and it deserves to be the current favourite.
The six-year-old by Blackfriars is a 16-time winner and it has already won two group ones this season with the C.F. Orr and the Futurity at Caulfield. Both came on its favourite track, but it did place at its only start at Eagle Farm which reads well.
It had its chance in The Goodwood last time out when seventh behind Vega Magic, but the 1200m was a touch short of its best and it never had time to find its rhythm. The 1300m for this suits where it’s a past winner.
A big question looming over its head is whether it can handle rain-affected ground. It has had four starts on rain-affected ground for only two placings and with a forecast of rain on Saturday, punters should be weary.
2. Under The Louvre – $21
Robert Smerdon lines up the six-year-old which has been set for this race and has experience winning big races at Eagle Farm.
The son of Excellent Art usually improves with a run under its belt, but it will have to after showing no zip at Flemington earlier this month. It finished 12th of 15 runners which was concerning, but there are some positives for the $21 chance.
It has won at Eagle Farm and four of its nine wins have come on a slow surface. Conditions are likely to suit and it should warm up late over this distance.
3. Japonisme – $34
The once top liner is only a shadow of its former self and it’s hard to see Japonisme winning this.
The Chris Waller-trained gelding has seemingly been around for years, but is only a four-year-old which was heavily raced as a youngster and that might be taking its toll now.
Its best recent effort was a fifth in the William Reid Stakes at Moonee Valley, but it was unable to follow that performance up with anything in three starts since.
4. Music Magnate – $17
Not much went right for Music Magnate in the Doomben 10,000 last start, but it was entitled to finish better than last.
The Bjorn Baker-trained gelding was a $9 chance, but after settling midfield with cover it quickly dropped back through the field with Jeff Lloyd in the saddle.
Punters should go on its previous form which included a win in the Victory Stakes at Eagle Farm and the group one winner brings in plenty of class to this.
Drawing barrier 12 will likely force Lloyd to find cover in a midfield position again, but this time punters will be hoping it can lengthen out and show its good turn-of-foot.
The $17 at Ladbrokes.com.au is a good value price for the punters that have short memories.
5. Counterattack – $9
Counterattack is a live hope despite having won only four of its 24 starts.
The Waller-trained four-year-old finished second in the Doomben 10,000 behind Redzel after settling well back and flashing home late. That run was full of encouragement and conditions aren’t too dissimilar here.
Opie Bosson carries only 0.5kg more after the run and it has never finished worse than third in seven starts on rain-affected ground.
Counterattack has been a group one horse in the waiting and it doesn’t get a better chance that what is presented here.
$7 is a good price at Sportsbet, but punters can have a max bet of $100 at $9 with Ladbrokes.
6. Clearly Innocent – $8
Clearly Innocent is a course specialist at Scone, but its form elsewhere is questionable.
The Kris Lees-trained gelding is coming off a win at Scone in the Lustin Star which was an great performance, but prior to that it ran ninth in the Hawkesbury Rush and last in the Chatham Stakes at Flemington.
That’s not great form for this and punters will be risking it at Eagle Farm – a course it has never been tested on before.
Kris Lees is fresh off winning the Group 1 Doomben Cup with Sense Of Occasion so the confidence will be high in the camp, but we’d need to see a big run here to back it away from Scone.
7. Start Wondering – $34
Start Wondering is a Kiwi runner which had a stint with Chris Waller in Sydney with good success and it hasn’t done much wrong since.
Now with Evan and J.J. Rayner, the six-year-old has won the Group 1 Railway Stakes at Ellerslie and the NRM Sprint at Te Rapa. That’s good form for this and despite running sixth in the Doomben 10,000, it would have needed that hit out after three months off the track and we think bookmakers are well off the mark here.
It has won 10 of its 20 starts with five placings and that’s a record which demands respect. Four wins have come on rain-affected tracks and we think it will sit on the speed from barrier 11 and be tough to get past.
Definitely worth a place bet at $6.80 with Sportsbet.com.au.
8. Jungle Edge – $14
The trainer will deny it till the cows come home, but Jungle Edge is a dead-set wet tracker and there’s no two ways about it.
The six-year-old from the Mick Bell stables scored an easy win on a heavy track in the BRC Sprint last week and if conditions are to suit again, it deserves to command respect from punters.
It’s not up to this level on a dry track and its record would suggest, but with some give in the ground it grows another leg. It has won 11 from 27 on rain-affected ground and some of those wins have come against top quality opposition.
The track is currently heavy, but will likely come up slow on race day. Will that be wet enough for Jungle Edge?
9. In His Stride – $126
Winner of only four from 33 starts and its fifth behind Mystic Opal last start at Eagle Farm simply won’t cut it against this quality field.
Good on trainer Rex Lipp for having a crack, but running a place would be worthy of a news story and we think the odds are spot on.
10. Hopfgarten – $26
Being trained on this track will be a big bonus for the Robert Heathcote-trained gelding which finished nicely behind Music Magnate last start.
The six-year-old is a professional winner of 11 races from 48 starts, including five wins on this track with six placings.
The son of Mossman is bred to enjoy the wet conditions, but it hasn’t performed well on the big stage in the past and $26 with bookmakers is around the right price.
11. Derryn – $8
Derryn is a quality three-year-old and our top pick for the Kingsford-Smith Cup.
The Lindsay Park-trained colt is looking for more black type to increase its stud value after winning the Arrowfield at Randwick two starts back.
It flew home to run third in the Doomben 10,000 behind Redzel and the extra distance here plays right into its hands.
Lindsay Park labelled the son of Hinchinbrook as their main Brisbane winter carnival runner and we think punters will take the $8 on offer at Ladbrokes with open arms.
Jockey Mark Zahra should land it in a good spot from barrier four and after a good tempo up front, it should be able to strike late.
12. Tycoon Tara – $26
Tycoon Tara likes to show up in the big races and it’s not without a winning chance in this.
The Peter and Paul Snowden-trained six-year-old won the Golden Pendant at Rosehill last campaign where it defeated Dixie Blossoms by two lengths and whilst that wasn’t up to this level, it’s a good indicator of its ability.
It showed enough when running fifth in the VOBIS Gold Sprint at Caulfield last start to suggest it could run in the money with some luck in running.
$5.60 to place at Bet365.com.
14. Impending – $19
Impending showed plenty of early promise for Godolphin, but its form has levelled off a touch.
The three-year-old by Lonhro finished third in the Arrowfield behind Derryn last start and it didn’t have much luck in running. It was held up on multiple occasions in the straight so punters should put a line through that run.
Darren Beadman believes it will need to be at its best to win, but drawing the inside barrier has its favours and it’s not without a chance.
Kingsford-Smith Cup predicted finishing order
1st – Derryn
2nd – Black Heart Bart
3rd – Start Wondering
4th – Tycoon Tara
5th – Counterattack
6th – Tycoon Tara
7th – Music Magnate
8th – Impending
9th – Jungle Edge
10th – Clearly Innocent
11th – Hopfgarten
12th – In His Stride
13th – Japonisme